dhweather,
I'am too very impressed with the level of information in the posts tonight. Obviously, alot of people on the Storm2K forum do their research and homework and the level of the discussions out classes any discussions I have seen on other forums. Props to Perry, Derek, dh and everyone who has led to a well thoughtout and informative discussion on this most serious of topics. Obviously I have alot of learn but I also have good teachers!
IS NYC 2nd TO N.O. IN VUNERALBILTIY?
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Scorpion
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Derek Ortt
I believe Donnas has been reanalyzed as a 2 or a 1 at LI. One must be very careful regarding where the winds are taken in NE, since most of the area is occupied by high rises. Also, the gusts due to the very fast speed are not really representative of wind speed.
I have a question about the Blue Hill ob, what elevation is that taken at? Also, what elevation were the gusts in NYC?
I have a question about the Blue Hill ob, what elevation is that taken at? Also, what elevation were the gusts in NYC?
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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Derek,
In New England the statement about "most are highrises" is very inaccurate. Just like anywhere else in America, there are a few tall buildings in the big cities, but that is it. Otherwise, houses aren't much different. Albeit, many homes are much older, if they were well built to begin with and managed to survive Snow packs.
The local Mets are well aware of height/elevation being a factor to weather (i.e. Mt. Washington!) -but most weather stations/observations are done not from the tops of skyscrapers, but from more typical gathering sites.
We had the occasional earthquake in N.E. so the highrises weren't really so high, just a few in Boston that could only 1/2 rival what could be found in N.Y.C.
We also had frequent "Nor'easters" - packing hurricane force winds - during our regular winters. The shorelines always get really beat up.
One thing about N.E., the elevation does quickly rise. Other than the Cape, New England is overall a very hilly, even mountainous region. High winds from a hurricane would be felt a ways away from the shore at the "high elevation" rates before a storm even crossed land.
I remember the remnants of a Hurricane passing over us in New Hampshire that brought quite a fun "blow" one summer/fall in the 80's. It was like a burst of very hot and humid air brought with the strong winds. Very little rain though. Very strange feeling. The next day, we had flamingoes in our schoolyard! -obviously brought with the storm. Very funny! -Bet they were tired!
My grandmother recalls a few big hurricanes that she went through when she lived in Provincetown, MA (on the tip of the Cape). She said at that time they had no warning other than wathcing the sea birds suddenly all fly inland. A nice morning turned into a nightmare when some really big storm blew in and destroyed all the houses on her street. Only theirs still stood (that my great grandad had built) when it was all over. That's the hurricane she remembers. Early 40's maybe? I will have to do some research to figure out which one it must have been that could have been strong enough to wipe out houses that had withstood Nor'Easters for years.
In New England the statement about "most are highrises" is very inaccurate. Just like anywhere else in America, there are a few tall buildings in the big cities, but that is it. Otherwise, houses aren't much different. Albeit, many homes are much older, if they were well built to begin with and managed to survive Snow packs.
The local Mets are well aware of height/elevation being a factor to weather (i.e. Mt. Washington!) -but most weather stations/observations are done not from the tops of skyscrapers, but from more typical gathering sites.
We had the occasional earthquake in N.E. so the highrises weren't really so high, just a few in Boston that could only 1/2 rival what could be found in N.Y.C.
We also had frequent "Nor'easters" - packing hurricane force winds - during our regular winters. The shorelines always get really beat up.
One thing about N.E., the elevation does quickly rise. Other than the Cape, New England is overall a very hilly, even mountainous region. High winds from a hurricane would be felt a ways away from the shore at the "high elevation" rates before a storm even crossed land.
I remember the remnants of a Hurricane passing over us in New Hampshire that brought quite a fun "blow" one summer/fall in the 80's. It was like a burst of very hot and humid air brought with the strong winds. Very little rain though. Very strange feeling. The next day, we had flamingoes in our schoolyard! -obviously brought with the storm. Very funny! -Bet they were tired!
My grandmother recalls a few big hurricanes that she went through when she lived in Provincetown, MA (on the tip of the Cape). She said at that time they had no warning other than wathcing the sea birds suddenly all fly inland. A nice morning turned into a nightmare when some really big storm blew in and destroyed all the houses on her street. Only theirs still stood (that my great grandad had built) when it was all over. That's the hurricane she remembers. Early 40's maybe? I will have to do some research to figure out which one it must have been that could have been strong enough to wipe out houses that had withstood Nor'Easters for years.
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donsutherland1
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Brent,
The 1938 hurricane was a Category 3 storm. It passed across Long Island and NYC was not hardest hit. Westhampton/Long Island and parts of coastal Rhode Island were ravaged by that storm. FWIW, the 1944 "Great Atlantic" Hurricane brought NYC it highest sustained winds: 81 mph.
To date, NYC has never experienced a Category 4 hurricane, but such hurricanes might be possible in the Northeast. Depending on which literature one examines the Colonial Hurricane of 1635 made New England landfall either as a Category 3 storm or possibly a Category 4 one.
For some ideas on storm surge:
Long Island: http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38h ... _maps.html
NYC: http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/pdf/nyc_hazard_brochure.pdf (see pp.3-4)
The 1938 hurricane was a Category 3 storm. It passed across Long Island and NYC was not hardest hit. Westhampton/Long Island and parts of coastal Rhode Island were ravaged by that storm. FWIW, the 1944 "Great Atlantic" Hurricane brought NYC it highest sustained winds: 81 mph.
To date, NYC has never experienced a Category 4 hurricane, but such hurricanes might be possible in the Northeast. Depending on which literature one examines the Colonial Hurricane of 1635 made New England landfall either as a Category 3 storm or possibly a Category 4 one.
For some ideas on storm surge:
Long Island: http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38h ... _maps.html
NYC: http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/pdf/nyc_hazard_brochure.pdf (see pp.3-4)
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donsutherland1
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TreasureIslandFLGal,
She either remembers the 1938 or 1944 hurricane, if that's the timeframe one is looking at. The 1938 storm struck very "suddenly" as it was charging toward New England at more than 50 mph.
Here's a photo from CT after the 1938 'cane:
Source: Historic NWS Collection
She either remembers the 1938 or 1944 hurricane, if that's the timeframe one is looking at. The 1938 storm struck very "suddenly" as it was charging toward New England at more than 50 mph.
Here's a photo from CT after the 1938 'cane:
Source: Historic NWS Collection
Last edited by donsutherland1 on Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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Don,
That looks like what she described! -everything just flattened. She said it didn't last too long, just a few hours. It started in the afternoon after a beautiful morning. They had been diggin for cohogs in the bay. Everyone just thought that the afternoon seabreezes were kicking up, until the horizon was getting too black too fast. She said it was like the Wizard of Oz, when out of nowhere the winds just started getting stronger and stronger and within an hour you just couldn't be outside. Neighbors started to come to their house during the storm for better shelter. All the trees were being uprooted and they all huddled in a little room in the middle of the house, hearing all hell breaking loose outside. When it was finally quiet, at night and dark, they emerged to find their house trashed since the windows had all broken and the winds got inside. They thought the damage could've been from a tornado too, as they saw their neighbor's houses were flattened. It wasn't until morning that they could truly assess what had happened. Amazingly their car was still intact next to the house, though the roads were impassable for quite a while. They ended up walking a great distance until they could get transportation out to their other home north of Boston. They were lucky to be pretty well off during a time when many people didn't have much. (it was before the war and the economy was still trying to recover from the great depression. )
She told me that she is sure many many people died during that storm, probably more than anyone knows since so many people were undocumented newly arrived immigrants that were staying with others or living in shanty towns. Especially during the warmer months, little shacks sprouted up to provide housing while the immigrants could work nearby picking cranberries or helping with construction projects. She said many didn't speak English yet and just traveled with their families, finding work anywhere. Kind of like migrant workers. In the summer and fall they could be in New England, and many were. They went south when it started getting colder unless they had secured a sturdy, warm house by then.
That looks like what she described! -everything just flattened. She said it didn't last too long, just a few hours. It started in the afternoon after a beautiful morning. They had been diggin for cohogs in the bay. Everyone just thought that the afternoon seabreezes were kicking up, until the horizon was getting too black too fast. She said it was like the Wizard of Oz, when out of nowhere the winds just started getting stronger and stronger and within an hour you just couldn't be outside. Neighbors started to come to their house during the storm for better shelter. All the trees were being uprooted and they all huddled in a little room in the middle of the house, hearing all hell breaking loose outside. When it was finally quiet, at night and dark, they emerged to find their house trashed since the windows had all broken and the winds got inside. They thought the damage could've been from a tornado too, as they saw their neighbor's houses were flattened. It wasn't until morning that they could truly assess what had happened. Amazingly their car was still intact next to the house, though the roads were impassable for quite a while. They ended up walking a great distance until they could get transportation out to their other home north of Boston. They were lucky to be pretty well off during a time when many people didn't have much. (it was before the war and the economy was still trying to recover from the great depression. )
She told me that she is sure many many people died during that storm, probably more than anyone knows since so many people were undocumented newly arrived immigrants that were staying with others or living in shanty towns. Especially during the warmer months, little shacks sprouted up to provide housing while the immigrants could work nearby picking cranberries or helping with construction projects. She said many didn't speak English yet and just traveled with their families, finding work anywhere. Kind of like migrant workers. In the summer and fall they could be in New England, and many were. They went south when it started getting colder unless they had secured a sturdy, warm house by then.
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donsutherland1
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Perry,
I agree with your analysis. In my view, odds favor a Category 3 hurricane sweeping across Long Island rather than scoring a direct hit on NYC. Tracks taken by the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes, Gloria, Donna, and Carol are probably the most likely ones for such storms that impact New York and New England even as the sample size is small.
Your analysis of the landfalling hurricanes is also quite consistent per the Re-Analysis:
Carol is now listed as a Category 3 hurricane at landfall with its having brought Category 3 winds to parts of NY, CT, and RI. Edna is now listed as a Category 3 hurricane at MA. Donna is listed as Category 3 at NY but Category 2 once it impacted New England. The 1944 hurricane is listed as a Category 3 storm at landfall and it brought NYC its highest sustained winds of 81 mph. Bob was Category 2.
Interestingly, Gloria is still shown as a Category 3 storm on Long Island, but Category 2 for CT. Unlike Diana which brought Category 3 winds to NC but weakened to Category 2 at landfall, no such notation has been made for Gloria.
I agree with your analysis. In my view, odds favor a Category 3 hurricane sweeping across Long Island rather than scoring a direct hit on NYC. Tracks taken by the 1938 and 1944 hurricanes, Gloria, Donna, and Carol are probably the most likely ones for such storms that impact New York and New England even as the sample size is small.
Your analysis of the landfalling hurricanes is also quite consistent per the Re-Analysis:
Carol is now listed as a Category 3 hurricane at landfall with its having brought Category 3 winds to parts of NY, CT, and RI. Edna is now listed as a Category 3 hurricane at MA. Donna is listed as Category 3 at NY but Category 2 once it impacted New England. The 1944 hurricane is listed as a Category 3 storm at landfall and it brought NYC its highest sustained winds of 81 mph. Bob was Category 2.
Interestingly, Gloria is still shown as a Category 3 storm on Long Island, but Category 2 for CT. Unlike Diana which brought Category 3 winds to NC but weakened to Category 2 at landfall, no such notation has been made for Gloria.
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donsutherland1
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TreasureIslandFLGal,
From your latest description, I am near certain she was referring to the 1938 hurricane. The 1944 hurricane came on at a slower pace.
FWIW, the July 1956 issue of Monthly Weather Review contains the following description of the 1938 hurricane:
The hurricane of September 1938 was among the most intense known to have occurred along the Atlantic Seaboard. This rapidly-moving storm reached the coastline of New England at the time of high tide, and as Brooks describes it: "Towering surges on this combined astronomical tide and storm wave threw the sea to such heights that demolition was general along the exposed coast, and they came so suddenly that hundreds of persons, some of them at the shore to watch the fine surf, were engulfed and drowned."
During the hurricane, as the sea rose rapidly, about 200 people took shelter on a sand dune at Watch Hill, RI. It was of no use. The storm surge soon swept across the Dune.
Overall, the hurricane's impact on Long Island and New England was devastating. At the time, it was the most costly disaster in U.S. history.
From your latest description, I am near certain she was referring to the 1938 hurricane. The 1944 hurricane came on at a slower pace.
FWIW, the July 1956 issue of Monthly Weather Review contains the following description of the 1938 hurricane:
The hurricane of September 1938 was among the most intense known to have occurred along the Atlantic Seaboard. This rapidly-moving storm reached the coastline of New England at the time of high tide, and as Brooks describes it: "Towering surges on this combined astronomical tide and storm wave threw the sea to such heights that demolition was general along the exposed coast, and they came so suddenly that hundreds of persons, some of them at the shore to watch the fine surf, were engulfed and drowned."
During the hurricane, as the sea rose rapidly, about 200 people took shelter on a sand dune at Watch Hill, RI. It was of no use. The storm surge soon swept across the Dune.
Overall, the hurricane's impact on Long Island and New England was devastating. At the time, it was the most costly disaster in U.S. history.
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SouthernWx
Derek Ortt wrote:I believe Donnas has been reanalyzed as a 2 or a 1 at LI. One must be very careful regarding where the winds are taken in NE, since most of the area is occupied by high rises. Also, the gusts due to the very fast speed are not really representative of wind speed.
I have a question about the Blue Hill ob, what elevation is that taken at? Also, what elevation were the gusts in NYC?
Block Island, RI is an island...the weather station less than 20' above sea level....standard anemometer height; this was an official NWS observing station during the 1950's and 1960's. The station recorded a 130 mph peak gust during Donna; sustained 120 mph winds with a peak gust to 130 during Carol.
The 135 mph gust measured during Edna was at wx station on Nantucket Island...and at least in the day (1954) was regarded as an accurate weather station. Montauk Point, NY is less than 15' above sea level....the obs there then and today were from a U.S. Coast Guard station. During Donna, gusts exceeded 120 mph across much of eastern L.I....as well as coastal Rhode Island.
There were no highrises on Block Island, Cape Cod, Nantucket, or eastern Long Island in 1938, 1944, 1954, or 1960.
I'm honestly not sure of the anemometer height at Blue Hills observatory, but do know it is one of the most highly regarded meteorological laboratories in the northeastern U.S. Therefore, I strongly suspect the anemometer is located at standard 10 m level (or WHATEVER was considered standard anemometer elevation in 1938).
The 100-120 mph gusts in NYC during the 1938 hurricane were in all likelyhood, taken 100' or more above the ground (especially considering NYC was located inside the western semicircle of a hurricane racing northward at an incredible 55-60 mph). I know they were NOT JFK or LaGuadia airport readings (then called "Idlewild"), or Central Park obs (but Central Park did record a 113 mph gust in 1954....as hurricane Hazel roared northward to the west).
One must remember when assessing these New England hurricanes....they were were all moving in excess of 30 mph at time of impact; Carol moving 45 mph...the 1938 hurricane moving at a forward speed of over 55 mph. That in itself made their destructive wind force stronger over the eastern semicircle.
One other point: In August of 1991, hurricane Bob made landfall in the same area as Carol did in 1954, with max winds over the same area as Carol and Donna.....peak wind obs were lower, and damage was far less when compared to Carol and Donna in the same region. Bob is rated a landfalling 90 kt cat-2 by NHC....so Carol and Donna were both IMO likely 100 kt cat-3's.
My assessment of New England hurricanes since 1900; based on thirty years of research:
1938 "Long Island express">>> 110 kts (946 mb)
1944 "Great Atlantic hurricane">>>100 kts (955 mb)***
1954 "Carol">>>100-105 kts (960 mb)
1954 "Edna">>>>100-105 kts (954 mb)
1960 "Donna">>>100 kts (960 mb)
1985 "Gloria">>75-80 kts (961 mb)
1991 "Bob">>>>>90-95 kts (964 mb)
***the 1944 hurricane was much stronger at landfall in NC/ VA....IMO 110 kts (947 mb)
PW
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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She said her Daddy likened it to looking like "No Man's Land" during the War... referring to WWI.
But th egood that came out of it was that everyone was helping everyone after the storm. She said that because of that, for the first time that she had seen, people were all trying to help eachother out, whether they were Italian, Irish, English, German, Portuguese, Black or whatever. At that time communities were so isolated by their heritage and split by language and culture, that they didn't intermingle much. After that storm, she said she was happy to see that folks actually came together, many for the first time, to rebuild.
That storm was a big turning point socially for the area but also economically. There was so much to do, that everyone who wanted to work, finally could.
But th egood that came out of it was that everyone was helping everyone after the storm. She said that because of that, for the first time that she had seen, people were all trying to help eachother out, whether they were Italian, Irish, English, German, Portuguese, Black or whatever. At that time communities were so isolated by their heritage and split by language and culture, that they didn't intermingle much. After that storm, she said she was happy to see that folks actually came together, many for the first time, to rebuild.
That storm was a big turning point socially for the area but also economically. There was so much to do, that everyone who wanted to work, finally could.
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Derek Ortt
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Stephanie
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Radar wrote:Wow Derek this is the first time I'm hearing that NYC would be the worst city to have a castrophic hurricane before it has always been discussed that N.O. was... I guess it is because N.O. has a higher risk of being struck by high catagory hurricane then NYC does... Can you imagine having to evacuate a city the size of NYC? Especially since a vast amount of their citizens depend on public transportation. I wonder what their Emergency Management Office has as far as evacuation plans. Would NYC be a good candidate for vertical evac?
I think that the worst hurricane that had hit the Long Island area was the Hurricane Express back in the 1930's. The population difference between then and now is enormous.
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donsutherland1
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Derek,
I realize that on a storm-by-storm basis the Re-analysis won't reach the 1960s until next year. Dr. Landsea wrote, "We've not yet begun the reanalysis for Camille. We'll probably be getting to the 1960s next (2006) year."
Unless I misunderstood Dr. Landsea's e-mail, the list of U.S. hurricanes from 1851-2004 is the latest information. Hence, even though some are not shown as major hurricanes on such sites as Unisys and others are, the AOML chart offers more accurate information than the Unisys site.
He did suggest that additional changes could occur and that there will likely be "dozens" of such changes down the road. Carol could be part of the changes.
P.S. I'll e-mail him for a clarification just to be sure.
I realize that on a storm-by-storm basis the Re-analysis won't reach the 1960s until next year. Dr. Landsea wrote, "We've not yet begun the reanalysis for Camille. We'll probably be getting to the 1960s next (2006) year."
Unless I misunderstood Dr. Landsea's e-mail, the list of U.S. hurricanes from 1851-2004 is the latest information. Hence, even though some are not shown as major hurricanes on such sites as Unisys and others are, the AOML chart offers more accurate information than the Unisys site.
He did suggest that additional changes could occur and that there will likely be "dozens" of such changes down the road. Carol could be part of the changes.
P.S. I'll e-mail him for a clarification just to be sure.
Last edited by donsutherland1 on Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:07 am, edited 2 times in total.
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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Blue Hills Observatory...
BLUE HILL METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATORY
MILTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02186
ELEVATION 635 FEET, 10 MILES SSW OF BOSTON, MA
They have an interesting website that goes into their history. See it at:
http://www.bluehill.org
BLUE HILL METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATORY
MILTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02186
ELEVATION 635 FEET, 10 MILES SSW OF BOSTON, MA
They have an interesting website that goes into their history. See it at:
http://www.bluehill.org
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tomboudreau
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TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Blue Hills Observatory...
BLUE HILL METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATORY
MILTON, MASSACHUSETTS 02186
ELEVATION 635 FEET, 10 MILES SSW OF BOSTON, MA
They have an interesting website that goes into their history. See it at:
http://www.bluehill.org
I spent almost 30 minutes on their website looking for this information. D'uh. Guess I was just looking in the wrong spot.
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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