Tropical Depression Beatriz,It has dissipated

[Scorpion]

Looking very impressive tonight. Yes, I admit I don't care about the EPAC that much because the Atlantic storms actually can impact me, but they're interesting to monitor especially if theyre Cat 4's or 5's.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220204
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AS NOTED BY IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES AND AN INCREASE
IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT
IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
AFWA AND A 21/2130Z CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1000.1 MB. ALSO
...CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AT 40 KT IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ASSUMING THAT THIS MOTION IS EQUAL TO THE 700
MB WIND FLOW EQUATES TO ABOUT A 36 KT SURFACE WIND SPEED. OUTFLOW
HAS ALSO IMPROVED...BUT REMAINS ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE
SATELLITE POSITIONS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER AND WEAKEN...AND BE TURNED MORE WESTWARD BY
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE BAM MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH NOW BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 59 KT IN 48H.
THE PREVIOUS SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM
MODEL...WHEREAS THE 00Z SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE SLOWER
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 15 KT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...SO A NEAR AVERAGE
RATE OF STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE UNTIL AROUND 60H OR SO...
WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL THEN BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND WEAKEN.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 13.9N 103.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.3N 104.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 14.9N 106.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 15.6N 108.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 16.4N 109.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 17.6N 113.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 27/0000Z 18.0N 119.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING


We did not use the T numbers for Arlene. Because if we did it would of for a long time it would of been no more then a weak depression. Also to note if that 1000.1 satelite pressure is right then this in fact is getting its act together. Also 36 knots surface winds?

1# The covnection has formed over the LLC.
2# There is banding forming.
3# Some of the data shows that this maybe down to near 1000.0 or so millibars.
4# 36 knots surface winds(In which case on the quickscats shows a few areas of 40 knot winds.

This is just my option no need to get mad over it.

[cycloneye]

It will be Tropical Storm Beatriz in the morning but out for the fishes in the EPAC.

[HurricaneJoe22]

very nice CDO developing...getting that classic jumbo shrimp tropical storm shape to it...best looking thing we've seen this season so far...I think it could reach a Cat 1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is no quastion that this developing a nice cdo. I think a hurricane by tomarrow night.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Personally if that Cdo is right over the LLC then it is around a 3.0 T an my option.


22/0545 UTC 15.3N 104.5W T2.5/2.5 02E

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the center of tropical depression 2E at 12:10am pst was centered near 15.3/104.9....It has turned to a movement to the west. I expect tropical storm.

[HurricaneJoe22]

its pulling the large area of convection on the southern end into the main area...I say Beatriz at 5 a.m. with 45 mph winds

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has still a very broad cirualtion. But I think a well defined LLC has(The one we saw earlier today)developed under or close to that ball of convection. If we where to use the T numbers with Arlene it would of not been ugpraded intill 24 hours before landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The overall cirualtion is getting much stronger over the last hour or so. With convection forming over the whole thing. Plus with the 2.5 that Arlene did not even have to central Gulf. This thing is really oreganizing well at this time.

[mobilebay]

The overall cirualtion is getting much stronger over the last hour or so. With convection forming over the whole thing. Plus with the 2.5 that Arlene did not even have to central Gulf. This thing is really oreganizing well at this time.

I agree Matt. I think it will be Beatriz within the next 45 minutes.

[senorpepr]

I agree Matt. I think it will be Beatriz within the next 45 minutes.

Word on the street is that it will remain 02E. 35 mph, 1004mb.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They did that when that came out for tropical storm Adrain. It said depression then the nhc upgraded it. Really looking at this the convection is now almost totally over the cirulation. The cirualtion is also getting stronger by the minute. If not at 5am they will most like be upgrading when they do there best track later this year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[mobilebay]

I agree Matt. I think it will be Beatriz within the next 45 minutes.

Word on the street is that it will remain 02E. 35 mph, 1004mb.

You may be correct senorpepr. However, I believe if this was in the ATL. Basin it would be a Tropical Storm. I think it is Now. I know the NHC plays it safe when systems are not considered a threat to land.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You better believe it would be a troical storm Mobilebay if it was in the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean. With recon I would not be surprized if this was a 50 mph one. Believe me if a recon was in there it would be. Look at Arlene.

[mobilebay]

You have some pretty good connections senor!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0831.shtml

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3


Statement as of 2:00 am PDT on June 22, 2005


Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the system is at The
Threshold of tropical storm strength. However...since the banding
features are not very well defined and there is significant
uncertainty in the center location...I have opted not to upgrade
the cyclone at this time. Upper-level winds appear to be modestly
favorable for intensification and sea surface temperatures should
remain sufficiently warm for the next 1-2 days. The official
intensity forecast is similar to that from the previous
advisory...and is a reasonable blend of the latest SHIPS and GFDL
guidance. By 72 hours...the cyclone will be traversing cooler
waters and in a more stable atmospheric environment...so weakening
will likely be occurring by that time.
My best guess at initial motion...285/11...is a little faster than
in the previous advisory. Otherwise there is little change in the
track forecast reasoning. Mid-level flow on the south side of a
subtropical anticyclone will provide a generally west-northwestward
steering over the next couple of days. A gradual turn to the west
with deceleration is expected later in the period...following the
shallow-layer flow. Because of the slightly faster initial
motion...the official track prediction is somewhat faster than that
of the previous advisory...for the first couple of days of the
forecast period.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/0900z 14.5n 104.9w 30 kt
12hr VT 22/1800z 14.9n 106.5w 40 kt
24hr VT 23/0600z 15.5n 108.5w 50 kt
36hr VT 23/1800z 16.1n 110.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 24/0600z 16.5n 112.2w 55 kt
72hr VT 25/0600z 17.0n 115.0w 45 kt
96hr VT 26/0600z 17.5n 117.5w 35 kt
120hr VT 27/0600z 17.5n 119.5w 25 kt...dissipating

Now I'm going to get my self into trouble for saying this...You better believe they did not worrie about banding or a well defined ciruatlion for that matter with Arlene. Heck Arlene had 3 or 4 LLC at one time. You can clearly see on the night time satellite that the convection is building over a broad but fastly tighting area of surface low pressure. With a 2.5 t number??? Eastern Pacific systems get no respect like the Atlatnic. In both don't even touch the Gulf or western Caribbean. It has to have perfect banding with a well defined LLC before its a tropical storm. Thats all I'm going to bed see you all tomarow.

That ciruatlion is looking good.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[mobilebay]

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3


Statement as of 2:00 am PDT on June 22, 2005


Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the system is at The
Threshold of tropical storm strength. However...since the banding
features are not very well defined and there is significant
uncertainty in the center location...I have opted not to upgrade
the cyclone at this time. Upper-level winds appear to be modestly
favorable for intensification and sea surface temperatures should
remain sufficiently warm for the next 1-2 days. The official
intensity forecast is similar to that from the previous
advisory...and is a reasonable blend of the latest SHIPS and GFDL
guidance. By 72 hours...the cyclone will be traversing cooler
waters and in a more stable atmospheric environment...so weakening
will likely be occurring by that time.
My best guess at initial motion...285/11...is a little faster than
in the previous advisory. Otherwise there is little change in the
track forecast reasoning. Mid-level flow on the south side of a
subtropical anticyclone will provide a generally west-northwestward
steering over the next couple of days. A gradual turn to the west
with deceleration is expected later in the period...following the
shallow-layer flow. Because of the slightly faster initial
motion...the official track prediction is somewhat faster than that
of the previous advisory...for the first couple of days of the
forecast period.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 22/0900z 14.5n 104.9w 30 kt
12hr VT 22/1800z 14.9n 106.5w 40 kt
24hr VT 23/0600z 15.5n 108.5w 50 kt
36hr VT 23/1800z 16.1n 110.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 24/0600z 16.5n 112.2w 55 kt
72hr VT 25/0600z 17.0n 115.0w 45 kt
96hr VT 26/0600z 17.5n 117.5w 35 kt
120hr VT 27/0600z 17.5n 119.5w 25 kt...dissipating

Now I'm going to get my self into trouble for saying this...You better believe they did not worrie about banding or a well defined ciruatlion for that matter with Arlene. Heck Arlene had 3 or 4 LLC at one time. You can clearly see on the night time satellite that the convection is building over a broad but fastly tighting area of surface low pressure. With a 2.5 t number??? Eastern Pacific systems get no respect like the Atlatnic. In both don't even touch the Gulf or western Caribbean. It has to have perfect banding with a well defined LLC before its a tropical storm. Thats all I'm going to bed see you all tomarow.

That ciruatlion is looking good.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

They do the same thing in the Eastern atlantic, when they have plenty of time to monitor it. I know what your saying though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I personally disagree with waiting when a system has developed into something.

[senorpepr]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think if I was in the shoes of the forecaster, I would do the same thing. There are some questionable signs pointing toward 35kt and some other signs pointing toward 30kt. Since land isn't threatened, stick with persistance, the golden rule of the tropics. It'll be best once sunrise comes to get a better idea of the system. With that in mind, my money will go down saying the this will be Beatriz at 11am, unless sudden cyclolysis occurs.