It's all downhill from here..

[Aquawind]

Enjoy the longest day of the year everyone! Looks like the SST's will be comfy for the swimmers down here afterall..lol The days may be shorter but the heat content will continue to build.

Paul


http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll ... 00398/1053


Warmer Atlantic temps could signal more storms


By JIM WAYMER
GANNETT NEWS SERVICE
Published by news-press.com on June 20, 2005

While tempting for beach dips, a balmy Atlantic plays a large role in potentially active hurricane seasons.

Portions of the southeast Atlantic, including waters off Florida, reached 80 degrees last week, an unofficial threshold that climate experts said can lead to more named storms.

But a strengthening global ocean current — the same one helping heat the ocean now — could keep pumping warmer water into the southern Atlantic for decades to come.

"This is the time when the Atlantic is really starting to warm," said Phil Klotzbach, a researcher with professor William Gray's hurricane prediction team at Colorado State University.

Friday, the Atlantic reached 82 degrees about 20 miles off Brevard, and 83 at a weather buoy 120 miles offshore New Smyrna Beach. Surf temperature at Cocoa Beach Pier was around 78 degrees.

It's warmer than that on the Gulf of Mexico side of the state. The average water temperature between Englewood and Naples was 84 degrees, with the high being the Naples pier at 89, according to ABC7 and the National Weather Service. Up the Caloosahatchee River, the water temperature at Fort Myers was 88.

While many factors contribute to form hurricanes, the Atlantic's warmer-than-usual temperature stands as an influential variable, climate experts such as Gray said.

The reason it's so warm lately is because of a strengthening global current of salty water. Climatologists said the so-called Atlantic thermohaline circulation has been strengthening since 1995.

This conveyor belt-like current transports heat worldwide, and so has major influences on global climate.

Wind carries warm tropical surface water north in the Atlantic, where it cools, becomes more dense, sinks, reverses direction and moves back to the tropics. There, it warms and returns to the surface, where it can feed energy to hurricanes.

When the circulation is stronger, like now, a low-pressure trough in the central Atlantic near the equator also strengthens, further increasing likelihood of major hurricanes. Climate experts said we're about 10 years into the stronger, saltier leg of the 30- to 50-year cycle.

"When the salinity in the Atlantic is greater, particularly in the northern Atlantic, the ocean gets warmer," Klotzbach said. "It tends to go strongly for 25 to as much as 40 years, then weakly for 25 to 40 years."

That could mean up to 30 years more of increased hurricane activity.

Other factors in the formation of hurricanes include the El Nino cycle, a pattern of warm water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. When that cycle is warmer, it typically means fewer hurricanes here because El Nino creates winds that shear apart storms as they form in the tropical Atlantic. Unfortunately, recent warm pulses in the Pacific dissipated, Zierden said, dashing hopes an El Nino might temper this year's hurricane season.

— Jim Waymer is a staff writer for Florida Today. The News-Press staff writer Grant Boxleitner contributed to this report.

[Trader Ron]

There were a couple of ninety degree SST's logged at the Naples Pier in the last week.

[canegrl04]

"ninety degree SSTs"

[Trader Ron]

I have lived in Naples for five years, and this is the earliest I have seen 90 degree SST's.

[drezee]

The flow is slowing... I am at work now. This evening I will create a post to back up this claim.

[x-y-no]

And here I thought (with that title) that this was going to be a "this season is a bust" post.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I really really don't want to know what the August SSTs are going to be in the GOM. God forbid if a hurricane enters the GOM at that time with a favorable upper level environment.

[cyclonaut]

And here I thought (with that title) that this was going to be a "this season is a bust" post.

You'll be seeing those "this season is a bust" posts in the weeks to come if nothing happens..I hope people have learned their lessons from seasons past & we won't have to put up with that this season!

[dhweather]

If the Atlantic stays quiet for six more weeks, the "this season is a bust"
posts will consume storm2k.

[cycloneye]

If the Atlantic stays quiet for six more weeks, the "this season is a bust"
posts will consume storm2k.

I remember those threads last year in June and July.

[Aquawind]

Geesh.. Jan we need to talk more.. I feel insulted by such a statement..

Paul

[Cookiely]

And here I thought (with that title) that this was going to be a "this season is a bust" post.

You'll be seeing those "this season is a bust" posts in the weeks to come if nothing happens..I hope people have learned their lessons from seasons past & we won't have to put up with that this season!

All is quiet and then all of a sudden the train starts and its all aboard the hurricane express.

[Swimdude]

Woohoo for warm water. =D Summer is here, and i'm happy. *Swimmer*

[Andrew92]

And here I thought (with that title) that this was going to be a "this season is a bust" post.

You'll be seeing those "this season is a bust" posts in the weeks to come if nothing happens..I hope people have learned their lessons from seasons past & we won't have to put up with that this season!

Can ya just say "last year" much? No named storms til August 1, and look what happened.....

-Andrew92

[x-y-no]

Geesh.. Jan we need to talk more.. I feel insulted by such a statement..

Paul

Relax, Paul. It was a joke. I know your posts better than that.

Jan

[Brent]

And here I thought (with that title) that this was going to be a "this season is a bust" post.

Me too...

[Aquawind]

The flow is slowing... I am at work now. This evening I will create a post to back up this claim.

I would be interested in that post.. Whatcha think Jan is the ATC flow going to weaken for a 30 year event versus 50?

Paul