Southern Gulf and BOC?

frederic79 · #1 Postby **frederic79** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 9:20 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This morning first visible frames show lots of convection from the old frontal boundary in the southern GOM. Water is warm but right now upper level winds are hostile.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Does anybody know if shear is forecast to lessen allowing development or continue to inhibit development in this area through the weekend?

jax · #2 Postby **jax** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 9:33 am

the trough has split....

Thunder44 · #3 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 10:12 am

Judging from water vapor loops, it looks conditions have become favorable down there developing but nothing appears iminent yet .

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 6:04 pm

Don't forget about TD2 in the Epac :wink:

#5 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 6:43 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Judging from water vapor loops, it looks conditions have become favorable down there developing but nothing appears iminent yet .

A missing ingredient might possibly be the fairly strong tropical wave moving WNW across the Eastern Caribbean. By some point into the upcoming weekend, things could begin to muddy up enough down there to require closer scrutiny.

This is not an official forecast, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night...seriously.

clfenwi · #6 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 6:51 pm

18Z GFS seems to give a small window of mild alleviation from tomorrow through Friday, but goes back to full blast hostility in the Gulf immediately after that.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

#7 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 8:31 pm

jax wrote:the trough has split....

Who got custody of the children?

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 11:20 pm

All I can say is WHAT A MESS down there!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#9 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 11:50 pm

Call me crazy, but I think I see a low starting to get it's act together just north of the Yucatan we will see in the morning if I'm ready for fitting for my new suit. Nite!

#10 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jun 21, 2005 11:57 pm

tailgater wrote:Call me crazy, but I think I see a low starting to get it's act together just north of the Yucatan we will see in the morning if I'm ready for fitting for my new suit. Nite!

What size do you wear? :lol:

Just kidding.

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:40 am

Stormcenter wrote:
tailgater wrote:Call me crazy, but I think I see a low starting to get it's act together just north of the Yucatan we will see in the morning if I'm ready for fitting for my new suit. Nite!

What size do you wear?

Just kidding.

I'm sure they come in one size fits all!

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:40 am

dhweather wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
tailgater wrote:Call me crazy, but I think I see a low starting to get it's act together just north of the Yucatan we will see in the morning if I'm ready for fitting for my new suit. Nite!

What size do you wear?

Just kidding.

I'm sure they come in one size fits all!

Southern Gulf and BOC?

Southern Gulf and BOC?

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