Which model is your choice or you dont look at any?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:37 am

I am not a diehard fan of models but my preffered models are NOGAPS followed by UKMET.

SouthernWx · #2 Postby **SouthernWx** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:44 am

Luis, I honestly don't have a preferred model.....but instead utilize a model blend (plus a knowledge of hurricane climatology) in preparing a tropical cyclone forecast. In other words, I look at all the model track data, add in climatology and a dash of common sense....and create my forecast analysis.

PW

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:45 am

I don't look at any model intently...................because I have Storm2K!!

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:57 am

NEWeatherguy wrote:I don't look at any model intently...................because I have Storm2K!!

Excellent choice

#5 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:08 pm

Mid range, ECMWF (not listed) and UKMet. Short range - conglomeration of models.

Steve

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:16 pm

Steve wrote:Mid range, ECMWF (not listed) and UKMet. Short range - conglomeration of models.

Steve

I forgot that one but it is now at poll. :oops:

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:17 pm

canadian and very high res MM5 (not public access on the webs ites though)

EyeOfTheStorm · #8 Postby **EyeOfTheStorm** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:18 pm

#9 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:21 pm

Well Luis, I look at most of the models, and blend in the knowledge
and experience I have watching these things, plus climatology and
good ol' common sense. Sometimes people get too hung up in the
models and ignore what satellite images are showing them.

Ivan was a great example of that last year.

David

#10 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:22 pm

>>canadian

Interesting choice D.O. I find that it does pretty good when the runs are all put together (not sure if it's an ensemble or what they call it) showing where the various models depict lower or higher pressure to be in the mid-longer range. They re-worked Environment Canada so I have to research and update my old links.

Steve

PS - Thanks cyc. I cast my ballot.

Swimdude · #11 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:22 pm

I don't have to look at the models myself. I just come here, and whichever y'all are talking about at the time are the ones I go to! :lol:

I'm obviously no professional.

HurryKane · #12 Postby **HurryKane** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:07 pm

WHERE is the A98E lurve? Models on crack need love, too.

(and I don't really favor any one model over another at this point)

Skywatch_NC · #13 Postby **Skywatch_NC** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:07 pm

I just stick with the Talkin' Tropics and Tropical Analysis forums!

Eric

clfenwi · #14 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:39 pm

I don't have a model of choice.

If I have time to look at models, I'll look at as many as I can.

When I don't have the time to look at them all (something I tend to know before starting the exercise) then I won't look at any. There just isn't one model that I trust enough to have one take all of my mindshare.

#15 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 2:01 pm

I look at the NHC model. I believe it's an ensemble of models, including the FSU model.

chris_fit · #16 Postby **chris_fit** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 2:06 pm

FSU Superensemble has been alright last season

rtd2 · #17 Postby **rtd2** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 4:39 pm

chris_fit wrote:FSU Superensemble has been alright last season

My pick as well..You beat me to it

#18 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 4:47 pm

I only look at the models after I check out the environmental conditions effecting the storm. I look at the models then to see if they agree or disagree with my thinking. I will admit the models are getting better and one day in the future they may consistently get it right.....MGC

skywarn · #19 Postby **skywarn** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 9:05 pm

The Viper model did a good job with Ivan . It was forcasting a more Northerly to Northeasterly turn as Ivan was approaching the Louisiana coast.

Radar · #20 Postby **Radar** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 9:50 pm

I look at several of the models also to see where they are trending... I just helps to give me an idea of if they are going in the region where I'm making my analysis. I'm not a diehard follower of one particular model and I find that there is a margin of error in all models, (especially my own :roll:

).