LLC in the Southern GOM

Thunder44 · #1 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:05 am

You can see it here on this shortwave imagery moving WNW just north of the BOC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

also here first visible image from here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

There's some convection on the east side, but it's under strong westerly shear. On water vapor imagery You also can see the huge trough digging southward in the GOM. That will probably turn it NE, if it's not ripped apart first.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

KatDaddy · #2 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:19 am

I dont expect anything tropical until the trough split occurs later in the week

#3 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:21 am

I think this is more of a mid-level system that is racing off to west that will get sheared pretty good till it makes landfall, this region has put out a few of these over the last few days although the system you are speaking of is a bit stronger and has more water to work with, we'll watch though.
Happy Hunting

#4 Postby **jeff** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:28 am

Looks like a low level circulation to me. Possibly a MVC from all the convection in that region over the last 24-36 hours. Looks weak at best and it could easily be gone by the end of the day.

#5 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 8:48 am

It sure does look interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#6 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 9:58 am

Stormcenter wrote:It sure does look interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Still looks interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

tw861 · #7 Postby **tw861** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 10:01 am

Hmmm, that is a curious little feature. Looks like some of the colder cloud tops are starting to wrap around it. It will be fun to watch it today and see what happens since not much else is going on. Seems to be headed off to Mexico unless it slows down though. I agree with Kat, I think the better chance of some real development is near the end of the week.

LilNoles2005 · #8 Postby **LilNoles2005** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:13 am

That is a little interesting. I think I actually see two circulations in that area. At least it gives us something to watch!

LilNoles2005 · #9 Postby **LilNoles2005** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:33 am

scratch that 'second circulation' that I thought I saw... I believe what I was seeing was the combination of the 'blob' moving west and wind shear.

#10 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:34 am

LilNoles2005 wrote:That is a little interesting. I think I actually see two circulations in that area. At least it gives us something to watch!

I do believe we have a LLC off the NW Yucatan also. The other one to its' NE looks to be the outflow from a collapsing thunderstorm and not another circulation.

As Jeff said it is very weak, but I always watch any swirl in the GOM during Hurricane season.

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 11:57 am

vbhoutex wrote:
LilNoles2005 wrote:That is a little interesting. I think I actually see two circulations in that area. At least it gives us something to watch!

I do believe we have a LLC off the NW Yucatan also. The other one to its' NE looks to be the outflow from a collapsing thunderstorm and not another circulation.

As Jeff said it is very weak, but I always watch any swirl in the GOM during Hurricane season.

It certainly warrants watching. How that trof to the north goes will
determine the furture development, if any, of this.

Swimdude · #12 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:28 pm

I love coming back to posts like this one a week later to see how much has changed... I'm sure we'll see either crazy development or nothing at all. Gotta love the GOM.

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 12:30 pm

Just because it is a nice spin does not mean it is at the lower levels.

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:24 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Just because it is a nice spin does not mean it is at the lower levels.

So where do you think it is? I looked at the visible sat loops and my eyes tell me that more than likely it is at the lower levels.

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:32 pm

It may be, I should have said things differently. I meant to say people should not, IMO, call it a LLC everytime a spin occurs. This one could be though.

#16 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:58 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:It may be, I should have said things differently. I meant to say people should not, IMO, call it a LLC everytime a spin occurs. This one could be though.

I agree!!

Way too many swirls get called an LLC, when in fact, they are not.

Thunder44 · #17 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 2:05 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:It may be, I should have said things differently. I meant to say people should not, IMO, call it a LLC everytime a spin occurs. This one could be though.

But this one is a LLC. You can see low clouds circulating around on visible imagery. I doubt this is just at the mid-levels. Anyway, it looks like it's being ripped to shreads this afternoon.

Normandy · #18 Postby **Normandy** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 2:16 pm

Nothing will happen with this...it looks headed straight for Mexico.

jax · #19 Postby **jax** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 2:22 pm

Check out the forcast for Tuesday and Wednesday...
Looks like a TD possible...

http://www.wetsand.com/swellwatch/swell ... ?CatId=301

PTrackerLA · #20 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jun 20, 2005 3:06 pm

It does look very weak but as VB stated we should keep an eye on things like this especially this time of year.

LLC in the Southern GOM

LLC in the Southern GOM

Well..

umm..

Re: Well..

Re: Well..

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