Seventy Five Percent of The Named Storms Occur after Aug 15.

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Trader Ron
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Seventy Five Percent of The Named Storms Occur after Aug 15.

#1 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:31 pm

I went back Fifty One Years, 1954-2004.

Why Fifty One years?

I started following Hurricanes in 1954.

There were 518 named storms during that time. 388 occurred from August 15 to November 30. 130 occurred prior to August 15.

What will this year bring? Just a guess. Two maybe Three named storms before August 15.
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Re: Seventy Five Percent of The Named Storms Occur after Aug

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:32 pm

Trader Ron wrote:I went back Fifty One Years, 1954-2004.

Why Fifty One years?

I started following Hurricanes in 1954.

There were 518 named storms during that time. 388 occurred from August 15 to November 30. 130 occurred prior to August 15.

What will this year bring? Just a guess. Two maybe Three named storms before August 15.


Well already there is one on the books before August 15 in 2005. :)
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#3 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:46 pm

Luis,

I meant to say, Two or Three more before August 15. :D
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 20, 2005 1:47 pm

Trader Ron wrote:Luis,

I meant to say, Two or Three more before August 15. :D


Oh ok no problem. :)
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#5 Postby dwg71 » Mon Jun 20, 2005 2:08 pm

and only 6% form after nov. 1, so 69% of all storms form between august 15th and october 30th. A window of 75 days, pretty short in the grand scheme of things. So we have 8 weeks until the peak season.

A typical season of 18 storms should look like this:
5 storms before August 15th and 1 after Nov. 1


A typical season of 15 storms should look like this:
4 storms before August 15th and 1 after Nov. 1


A typical season of 12 storms should look like this:
3 storms before August 15th and 1 after Nov. 1

A typical season of 9 storms should look like this:
2 storms before August 15th and 1 after Nov. 1

One thing is for sure, that there are not any "Typical Seasons", look back over the last 51 years and I bet you wont find any season to match the above formula.

So bank on something different.
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