The SE Coast Of Florida & Hurricanes

[cyclonaut]

I know that there are many places that are overdue if such a term applies to hurricanes..In other words, there are many locations in the U.S. that sit in the middle of hurricane country..Tampa,New Orleans,Houston & Jacksonville are some of these cities that have'nt seen a direct hit from a major hurricane in a very long time..For a few of those cities a major hurricane is going to occur sooner than later..

Living in the Miami area I am intrigued with the hurricane history & the possibility of history repeating itself..I was born & raised here & have witnessed 2 hurricanes come ashore here in my immediate area (Andrew & Irene)..Yes I have felt fringe effects from other TS's & hurricanes that have come close, but I still say to myself sometimes that I have only seen 2 hurricanes hit here in my 34 years of life..So I wonder that if in the near future if it even gets half as stormy here as it was in the early to mid parts of last century,it's going to be a scary & crazy place to be.

This thread was not about convincing mother nature to bring a hurricane here or anything of that nature-pun intended..This thread was about hurricanes or the lack there of that have hit from the SE & east & therefore making "landfall" in "SE Florida"..How that seemed to happen much more many decades ago,hence the name of the thread "The SE Coast Of Fla & Hurricanes"..Not SW Fla,Texas coast or Mosquito Coast.

What so irrelevant about it???I don't know & don't care..I just know that hurricanes use to hit this coast with regularity but now besides Andrew this occurrence has become pretty rare & I find that interesting..Frances &/or Jeanne looked like they had a chance to break that trend but it didnt happen..So I continue to ponder..

[simplyme]

This whole thread is interesting, but completely irrelevant.

I'm not sure there's ever been a time when Mother Nature has sat back and said "Hmmm, I haven't hit this area in a while, lets toss them a natural disaster". She has, and will continue to, act in a completely irrational manner

Sorry, but I respecfully (and vehemently) disagree. Hurricane climatology is very important, and does provide a general idea of a coastal location's odds/ return period of a tropical storm/ hurricane/ major hurricane/ et all.

If you live in West Palm Beach or Key Largo, Florida....it's very important you know the past hurricane history of your area, and realize it has ramifications for your future. To disregard the historical past hurricanes which have struck a particular coastline would be very foolish; just as foolish as living in Oklahoma or north central Alabama and disregarding tornado history.

Hurricane climatology isn't something which "happened a long time ago but will never happen again". Anyone living in a vunerable coastal area who truly believes that way about past hurricanes in their area is only fooling themselves....and putting themselves and their loved ones in grave danger.

While I cannot sit here and tell you a major hurricane will strike downtown Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, or the Florida Keys and Key West later this season.....I have great confidence they will all be struck head-on by a powerful hurricane during the next two to three decades; perhaps more than once. My vast knowledge of Florida's hurricane climatology combined with a similar knowledge of major U.S. landfalling hurricane cycles gives me that confidence.

PW

My Hurricanes 05' website
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61/Hurricane

I'm not saying disregard the past. Trends show that indeed, the southern states are in hurricane territory. Just like some of the midwest states are tornado country. But to say one area is "due", it just doesn't work like that. You can say there are cycles that bring more hurricanes to land that last 20 or 50 years, but you can't say that any certain location is "due" to have a hurricane. Was Port St. Lucie "due" to have not one, but two hurricanes last year?

I think saying things like a specific coastline is more vulnerable for specific reasons is far more helpful/insightful then saying they're "due". Give reasons, not just because they haven't been hit in a while. Last year proved that time between hurricanes doesn't mean much.

If there's such a trend going on that includes years/decades, show it... talk about it. Discuss how this season or the weather in recent years is similar to how it was during the previous trend. Are the same factors in place? Will factors be similar in a month or two?

[SouthernWx]

If there's such a trend going on that includes years/decades, show it... talk about it. Discuss how this season or the weather in recent years is similar to how it was during the previous trend. Are the same factors in place? Will factors be similar in a month or two?

Excuse me friend, but thats ALL I've been doing the past 5+ years online: WARNING south Floridians that it was only a matter of time until the major hurricane cycle swung back to them.

Well friend, it finally happened in 2004. Two major landfalling hurricanes (Charley, Jeanne) plus another very strong (960 mb) cat-2 in Frances. If you believe that was just a "freak" year that will revert back to another long "dry spell" for south Florida, you are only kidding yourself.

There ARE major hurricane landfall cycles which have been extensively researched by hurricane experts. Go to Unisys and check out where 90%+ of landfalling major hurricanes struck the U.S. in the 1951-1960 period....between south Carolina and New England. Here's the number of intense hurricanes (IH) which made landfall between 1951-1960...landfalling hurricanes with central pressure below 965 mb/ 28.50".

1951-1960
U.S. east coast: 8 IH (incl Donna from SW Fla)
Florida peninsula: 1 IH (Donna)
U.S. Gulf coast: 1 IH (Audrey, an unseasonable June monster)



Now check out the 1961 to 1983 period..when the major hurricane cycle most definitely shifted to the Gulf Coast states. Monster hurricanes such as Camille, Frederic, Carla, and Betsy became legendary...and virtually every intense hurricane to impact America slammed the Gulf Coast during that 22 yr period....while none struck the U.S. east coast north of Florida, and only one struck south Florida (Betsy).

1961-1983
U.S. east coast: 0
Florida peninsula: 1 (Betsy)
U.S. Gulf coast: 11 (incl Betsy from SoFla)



The intense landfall hurricane cycle swung back to the U.S. east coast beginning with Diana in 1984. For the 1984-2003 period, intense hurricanes smashed the Carolinas particularly hard, but once again inexplably bypassed south Florida.

1984-2003
U.S. east coast: 9
Florida peninsula: 1 (Andrew)
U.S. gulf coast: 5 (incl Andrew from SoFla)



Now compare the periods since 1951 to the period between 1919 and 1950...the LAST intense landfalling hurricane cycle to target the Florida peninsula:

1919-1950
U.S. east coast: 3
Florida peninsula: 16 (incl 5 cat-4's and 1 cat-5)
U.S. gulf coast: 11 (incl 4 from SoFla)


In 2004, more intense hurricanes (3) targeted the southern half of Florida than during the entire 1961-2003 period....a 43 yr period of record. If anyone wants to believe last season was "just an anomaly"; "just a freak that won't happen again for decades", then be my guest....but you are only fooling yourself and IMHO are in for one helluva rude awakening in the next several years.

South Florida is climatologically and historically the most likely area of America to experience a landfalling intense hurricane. The unprecidated lull between 1951 and 2003 fooled millions; gave many a "false sense of security" that hurricane patterns had changed since the 1919-1950 period; that Miami, Tampa, and Palm Beach were somehow "protected" from big hurricanes. I even saw clueless theories that NOAA, the U.S. military, or even NASA had "steered" the big hurricanes away from south Florida since Andrew's carnage. Well, 2004 should have proven that the only reason monster hurricane Floyd turned away from the Sunshine state in 1999 was the same reason big canes sometimes turned away from the Sunshine state in 1900...GOOD FORTUNE aka DUMB LUCK.

Hurricane Georges in 1998 failed to deepen explosively before impacting south Florida after hitting Hispanola's 10,000' foot mountains just as David did in 1979 and the monster Santo Domingo hurricane did in 1930.....it wasn't peanut oil poured into the sea, nor dry ice, nor laser beams, nor the U.S. marines which saved Florida's hiney from Georges becoming a monster....just good fortune.

Based on last years hurricanes, IMO we have entered another Florida major landfall cycle. With history and climatology as a guide, it means we can reasonably expect, on average a major landfalling hurricane somewhere in south or central Florida once per 2 years for the foreseeable future (30 yrs or so). As difficult as it may seem to believe, Floridians was actually quite fortunate in 2004.
Charley was exceedingly small and missed large population centers along the SW Florida coast; Frances weakened from 140 mph to 105-110 mph over the Bahamas AND missed the densely populated SE Florida coast; so did Jeanne, even though billions in damage occurred along her path.

If history is a guide, we won't be so fortunate in coming years....because it's almost inevitable at least 4 or 5 of the powerful hurricanes during this next cycle won't be small, won't weaken before landfall, or won't miss the large population centers.
They may not be called "the great Miami hurricane", "San Felipe", "the Labor Day hurricane", or the "great Sept 1947 Florida hurricane".....but their catastrophic impact on Florida will be the same; possibly even worse (there are a lot more people and expensive property in harms way today than in 1926 or 1947).

To put those past monster hurricanes into perspective, the 1926 Miami hurricane was very similar to 1989's Hugo.....the 1928 San Felipe and 1919 Keys monster hurricane similar to 1999's Floyd a his peak. The 1947 Fort Lauderdale cat-4 similar to 1995's Luis...of course, for intensity the 1935 Labor Day hurricane was off the scale; think about last season's Charley or 1992's Andrew with 195-200 mph SUSTAINED winds (gusting to 230+ mph/ 200 kts

Now imagine ALL of those monster hurricanes slamming the Florida peninsula within the next 30 years....it already happened between 1919 and 1950 (during the LAST intense Florida landfall cycle), so there's no reason similar monsters couldn't impact Florida again during the next two to three decade period.

PW

[cyclonaut]

This whole thread is interesting, but completely irrelevant.

I'm not sure there's ever been a time when Mother Nature has sat back and said "Hmmm, I haven't hit this area in a while, lets toss them a natural disaster". She has, and will continue to, act in a completely irrational manner

Sorry, but I respecfully (and vehemently) disagree. Hurricane climatology is very important, and does provide a general idea of a coastal location's odds/ return period of a tropical storm/ hurricane/ major hurricane/ et all.

If you live in West Palm Beach or Key Largo, Florida....it's very important you know the past hurricane history of your area, and realize it has ramifications for your future. To disregard the historical past hurricanes which have struck a particular coastline would be very foolish; just as foolish as living in Oklahoma or north central Alabama and disregarding tornado history.

Hurricane climatology isn't something which "happened a long time ago but will never happen again". Anyone living in a vunerable coastal area who truly believes that way about past hurricanes in their area is only fooling themselves....and putting themselves and their loved ones in grave danger.

While I cannot sit here and tell you a major hurricane will strike downtown Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, or the Florida Keys and Key West later this season.....I have great confidence they will all be struck head-on by a powerful hurricane during the next two to three decades; perhaps more than once. My vast knowledge of Florida's hurricane climatology combined with a similar knowledge of major U.S. landfalling hurricane cycles gives me that confidence.

PW

My Hurricanes 05' website
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61/Hurricane

I'm not saying disregard the past. Trends show that indeed, the southern states are in hurricane territory. Just like some of the midwest states are tornado country. But to say one area is "due", it just doesn't work like that. You can say there are cycles that bring more hurricanes to land that last 20 or 50 years, but you can't say that any certain location is "due" to have a hurricane. Was Port St. Lucie "due" to have not one, but two hurricanes last year?

I think saying things like a specific coastline is more vulnerable for specific reasons is far more helpful/insightful then saying they're "due". Give reasons, not just because they haven't been hit in a while. Last year proved that time between hurricanes doesn't mean much.

If there's such a trend going on that includes years/decades, show it... talk about it. Discuss how this season or the weather in recent years is similar to how it was during the previous trend. Are the same factors in place? Will factors be similar in a month or two?

In this very thread wxman57 provides a link that explains that we are now in a cycle that may lead to more Florida hurricane hits..So we are trying to explain!I don't have a direct line to the future where I can see what will happen but looking at the past a sure fire way to know that it has & can happen again!

[simplyme]

And that right there is what I've been waiting for SouthernWx

I just wanted someone to back up the theory with something more concrete then the phrase "we're due". You've done that... thank you.

[cyclonaut]

This whole thread is interesting, but completely irrelevant.

I'm not sure there's ever been a time when Mother Nature has sat back and said "Hmmm, I haven't hit this area in a while, lets toss them a natural disaster". She has, and will continue to, act in a completely irrational manner

Sorry, but I respecfully (and vehemently) disagree. Hurricane climatology is very important, and does provide a general idea of a coastal location's odds/ return period of a tropical storm/ hurricane/ major hurricane/ et all.

If you live in West Palm Beach or Key Largo, Florida....it's very important you know the past hurricane history of your area, and realize it has ramifications for your future. To disregard the historical past hurricanes which have struck a particular coastline would be very foolish; just as foolish as living in Oklahoma or north central Alabama and disregarding tornado history.

Hurricane climatology isn't something which "happened a long time ago but will never happen again". Anyone living in a vunerable coastal area who truly believes that way about past hurricanes in their area is only fooling themselves....and putting themselves and their loved ones in grave danger.

While I cannot sit here and tell you a major hurricane will strike downtown Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, or the Florida Keys and Key West later this season.....I have great confidence they will all be struck head-on by a powerful hurricane during the next two to three decades; perhaps more than once. My vast knowledge of Florida's hurricane climatology combined with a similar knowledge of major U.S. landfalling hurricane cycles gives me that confidence.

PW

My Hurricanes 05' website
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61/Hurricane

I'm not saying disregard the past. Trends show that indeed, the southern states are in hurricane territory. Just like some of the midwest states are tornado country. But to say one area is "due", it just doesn't work like that. You can say there are cycles that bring more hurricanes to land that last 20 or 50 years, but you can't say that any certain location is "due" to have a hurricane. Was Port St. Lucie "due" to have not one, but two hurricanes last year?

I think saying things like a specific coastline is more vulnerable for specific reasons is far more helpful/insightful then saying they're "due". Give reasons, not just because they haven't been hit in a while. Last year proved that time between hurricanes doesn't mean much.

If there's such a trend going on that includes years/decades, show it... talk about it. Discuss how this season or the weather in recent years is similar to how it was during the previous trend. Are the same factors in place? Will factors be similar in a month or two?

In this very thread wxman57 provides a link that explains that we are now in a cycle that may lead to more Florida hurricane hits..So we are trying to explain!I don't have a direct line to the future where I can see what will happen but looking at the past a sure fire way to know that it has & can happen again!