Joe B....GOM developement end of week??

[KatDaddy]

Joe B is hinting at the trough split and TW approaching the Windward Islands. By the time the TW gets to the W Caribbean it will have good ventilation. Joe is hype on his pattern recognition and 1954 when Alice made landfall along the S TX Coast.

Remember this is Joe B so tak it with a grain of salt and we will see what if anything unfolds during the late week and next weekend.

[Steve]

I was talking about that in a thread on Friday or Saturday. A few things need to resolve themselves if and before there can be any close-in tropical development in this cycle. The wave itself is only in the islands right now. The lead trof is in, but the real trof to split still has to occur down in the Southern Gulf/Caribbean, the ULL piece (that everyone's going to be screaming "shear!!!!") has to back off SW and then something will have to organize. I was thinking late week, but he's showing maps out to Sunday and Monday (ECMWF) with the bulge just into the Southern Gulf. So if anything happens or threatens the South Texas Coast, it's probably in the 8-10 day period (next Mon-Wed). I've now seen Joe's video and he's saying this stuff isn't magic. It's pattern recognition. So if the pattern has been recognized and the various ingredients come together to form a storm or even just a deep tropical flow, that would be another coup for JB and show the value of actually knowing the weather and what happens when you get so-and-so in a pattern rather than simply forecasting via computer models (some which may, some which may not have the historical components required to sense development from a weather pattern).

Steve

[cyclonaut]

Joe B. will be trying to spin something up somewhere everyday from now til Thanksgiving.

[Steve]

>>Joe B. will be trying to spin something up somewhere everyday from now til Thanksgiving.

Difference is, if he gets this one, that would be 2 for 2 out of the pattern pulse . No doubt he'll overplay his hand many times before the summer's up (maybe even this time), but if not, I would expect you to resurrect this thread and give the devil his due.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

JB is DA MAN!!!!!

[cyclonaut]

>>Joe B. will be trying to spin something up somewhere everyday from now til Thanksgiving.

Difference is, if he gets this one, that would be 2 for 2 out of the pattern pulse . No doubt he'll overplay his hand many times before the summer's up (maybe even this time), but if not, I would expect you to resurrect this thread and give the devil his due.

Steve

I agree & I watch Joe B's videos almost every day..He's good @ what he does most times but like Kat Daddy said this is Joe B & take it with a grain of salt.

& I do.

[Steve]

Btw, supporting his theory (via the Tropical Update), he's giving the late June (24th-26th) 1954 (analog year) storm "Alice"

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

while still noting his 1995 analog Allison (June 3-11th) for this year's Arlene:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Interesting stuff if we get the 1954 component. That would say at least two of his analogs had somewhat similar occurrences and maybe he's at least barking up the right tree on his landfall outlook for the year. I haven't done the research, but I wonder - if we do get something - how many seasons had 2 named storms in June.

Steve

[Steve]

>>I agree & I watch Joe B's videos almost every day..He's good @ what he does most times but like Kat Daddy said this is Joe B & take it with a grain of salt.

Absolutely. It's just that he gives us something else to talk about since the pattern recognition is his forte'. Pass the salt please

Steve

[jlauderdal]

>>I agree & I watch Joe B's videos almost every day..He's good @ what he does most times but like Kat Daddy said this is Joe B & take it with a grain of salt.

Absolutely. It's just that he gives us something else to talk about since the pattern recognition is his forte'. Pass the salt please

Steve

between me eating alot of crow with my busted forecasts and the pounds of salt i consume listening to joe b i am going to be one unhealthy guy by the end of october.

[clfenwi]

... I haven't done the research, but I wonder - if we do get something - how many seasons had 2 named storms in June.

Reaching back through 90 years...

1986 TS Andrew (5-8 Jun) and H Bonnie (23-28 Jun)
1968 H Abby (1-13 Jun) and H Brenda (17-26 Jun)
1959 TS Arlene (28 May-2 Jun), TS Beulah (15-18 Jun), and H #3 (18-21 Jun)
1957 TS #1 (8-15 Jun) and H Audrey (25-29 Jun)
1936 TS #1 (12-17 Jun), TS #2 (19-22 Jun), and H #3 (26-28 Jun)

[Anonymous]

2003--- ANA in April, and BILL in June

[x-y-no]

Joe B is hinting at the trough split and TW approaching the Windward Islands. By the time the TW gets to the W Caribbean it will have good ventilation. Joe is hype on his pattern recognition and 1954 when Alice made landfall along the S TX Coast.

Remember this is Joe B so tak it with a grain of salt and we will see what if anything unfolds during the late week and next weekend.

Seems like a plausible idea. I'd say it's worth watching.

[Steve]

Thanks clf. Out of 90 years, it indicates a 5.5555r% chance.

x,

I agree. Something or nothing may pan out. But it's the next thing on the horizon anyway, so let's see what happens. FWIW, it will be interesting to see how long the wave in the islands keeps its "innocuous (sp?) look" as a potential determiner later in the season. Some years, waves crack routinely east of 60W. Other years they look like run-of-the-mill waves until past 80W. Since the farther west they can get usually determines their ultimate threat to the United States, it's just another facet of the season. It will also be interesting to note when the NAO goes positive, how long it stays and when it drops back negative again. The drop to negative was congruent with the formation of Arlene. If the B storm follows the same type of pattern, maybe that's something we can look at for close-in development later in the season.

/always searching

Steve

[dhweather]

Joe B. will be trying to spin something up somewhere everyday from now til Thanksgiving.

Now that's funny!

I can see it now, CRACK-U-WEATHER presents the 2005 Christmas Shopping forecast

There's gonna be some clouds in the Gulf of Mexico, in the Carribean, and
the Western Atlantic around Thanksgiving. There will probably be some wind
and rain too, and given that we are still in Hurricane Season, you might
want to make alternate plans for shopping.

[dhweather]

2003--- ANA in April, and BILL in June

I'll never forget the South Atlantic/Brazil Hurricane in March, 2004.

Our daughter was only three months old, and I got up with her at 3AM
to feed her. I cut on the weather channel, and she's chugging on the bottle.
There's Steve Lyons talking about a Hurricane about to make landfall in
Brazil, the first known South Atlantic Hurricane ever. Honest to God,
I think that I'm hallucinating.

At work the next morning, I mention this to HurryKane, she provides me
good news links on the storm and saves my sanity.

[TampaFl]

[HurryKane]

2003--- ANA in April, and BILL in June

I'll never forget the South Atlantic/Brazil Hurricane in March, 2004.

Our daughter was only three months old, and I got up with her at 3AM
to feed her. I cut on the weather channel, and she's chugging on the bottle.
There's Steve Lyons talking about a Hurricane about to make landfall in
Brazil, the first known South Atlantic Hurricane ever. Honest to God,
I think that I'm hallucinating.

At work the next morning, I mention this to HurryKane, she provides me
good news links on the storm and saves my sanity.

I always gots yer back, bro.

[Derecho]

From June 1 2004 to the formation of Alex on July 31st 2004, Joe B. forecast or mentioned the possibility of Atlantic Tropical development no less than 29 times (a conservative estimate as due to archive problems the last week of each month was not avaliable.)

All 29 of those predictions were a failure.

He can't possibly miss having "called" anything that develops if he's mentioning development every two days.

[cyclonaut]

From June 1 2004 to the formation of Alex on July 31st 2004, Joe B. forecast or mentioned the possibility of Atlantic Tropical development no less than 29 times (a conservative estimate as due to archive problems the last week of each month was not avaliable.)

All 29 of those predictions were a failure.

He can't possibly miss having "called" anything that develops if he's mentioning development every two days.

So true, I remember you posting something about that last season..

This is what I meant with my post in the beginning of this thread.

[Steve]

I see you're back for another year of fun and games.

>>From June 1 2004 to the formation of Alex on July 31st 2004, Joe B. forecast or mentioned the possibility of Atlantic Tropical development no less than 29 times (a conservative estimate as due to archive problems the last week of each month was not avaliable.)

And this has exactly what to do with the setup for possible SE Gulf development toward this weekend? Please pardon me if I missed the thread where you made this or any other call in this history of your bashing other posters and weather outlets for their mistakes.

>>All 29 of those predictions were a failure.

Incidentally, you put out none. But I do recall you harping on one of Accuweather's tracks before you more or less vanished for the season. And you went on and on about it. I also recall the slightest hint you put out was worse than what you criticized them for. Last I checked, two wrongs still didn't make a right nor did it give the one who was more wrong than the other any room to criticize the lesser wrong without appearing to be a complete hypocrite or wannabe (aka Weather Weenie). LMAO, and it's all still here in the S2k archives. Some of us around here are smart enough to know a spade when we see one and call it what it is. Others lap you up like you're some kind of guru because they're afraid to expose you for what you are or afraid you'll flame them. (Exhibit A: "So true, I remember you posting something about that last season.. This is what I meant with my post in the beginning of this thread.)


The day you actually come out and make a prediction, forecast track or ANYTHING that affords you the right to criticize anyone else, then I'll never respond negatively to another bogus criticism you have to offer.

>>He can't possibly miss having "called" anything that develops if he's mentioning development every two days

And again, you can't possibly expect anyone who knows any better to miss you having "called" anything when you haven't in 2 seasons. You're great at trashing other people to make yourself look good, but not so great when you add up the fact that at least something is better than nothing.

So once again in 2005, I'm going to offer a friendly suggestion that you either put up or shut up. I've read two posts by you this year - one bashing Derek Ortt, one bashing Joe Bastardi, neither of which was a particularly good flame much less a reasonable criticism.

Some talk. Others do. Talk - action = zero.

Love,

Steve