If you trust yourself, how do you know when to leave

[LCfromFL]

I found this site last year - and was AMAZED by the storm surge information for my area! I live approximately 20 miles inland - so I should be pretty safe from surge, right? WRONG! I just didn't take into account all of the rivers and streams and creeks and the impact of a major storm on the inland waterways. (All that water has to go somewhere - and it'll push pretty far inland apparantly). I believe the assumption for these maps is a direct hit/NE quadrant type of scenario to effect these types of surges...and our last 'direct' hit was Dora in 1964 (before my time, btw). But my parents lived out on Jax Beach (a barrier island) during Dora and waited until too late to evacuate (that was before the 'tall' intercoastal waterway bridge of today). When my dad finally decided to leave, the bridge was closed and they were stuck. My mom was NOT a happy camper to be stuck on a barrier island with a hurricane coming.

Anyway - check out this site for Florida surge:

http://floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/

I was having trouble getting the maps to fully display if I just clicked on the county name (they were either coming up with just an outline or only paritally 'colored'). Anyway - if you right-click over your county name and Save Target As (pick a name/location) the maps will fully display.

LC

[Brent]

It is not the wind, I am worried about, it is the surge. Louisiana is different than any other coastal state in the nation. I live between 25-30 miles inland, and they said if Ivan had hit us head on, we would of seen the surge here. May be hard to believe for some of you folks in other states. But, it is true. Nothing but marshes and water here. Nothing to protect us.

Southern Louisiana is slowly become part of the Gulf anyway. In about 20-30 years where you live will be underwater. A Hurricane would speed up the process dramatically.

[gulfcoastdave]

I was in my new home for Ivan . The home was built in 2004 with all the new codes and all. I live in Santa Rosa County and my home is about 20 miles from the gulf and about 5 miles from the Bay and 3 from a large river.

My neighbors helped board up my home as I did with their homes. Out of 12 families on our new street only 3 stayed for the storm. I have been through storms in the past (OPAL, ERWIN and Frederick and many tropical storms). Ivan was nothing like any of those. Ivan was large and lasted for many many hours. I was not expecting this to occur nor my wife and two small children. The house did very well in the storm , no damage. However, that is not the point of my post. The point of the post is that it's a house. My family are more important than the house and I should have left.

Many of you have posted about the breaking in of homes and so on and I can understand that to a degree . However , I had many friends who stayed in their homes in Pensacola and ended up in their attic due to storm surge. This was on the Bay not the Gulf. Had friends who lived in Grand Lagoon , same issue. None of these people were ready for the storm surge. The weather people did not even expect the storm surge that we had here in the pensacola area. I would not leave where I am now for a Cat 1 or 2 or maybe 3........however cat 4 or 5 I would now.

Until you live through one like Ivan you just really do not know what to expect.

On Ivan, I know Ivan lost some power but it made landfall but I think many of you forget that Ivan was once a very powerful Cat 5. Ivan may have been a cat 3 or weak cat 4 but it still had the power(storm surge) of that of a larger storm.

I would love for most of you to see the damage on the bays not the gulf sides to understand the what I am saying.......anyhow on leaving..........it's always better to be safe than sorry.

I know most people I have spoke with will leave for a storm next time than stay.

[Cookiely]

they dont evacuate for wind (which is something I wish would happen as in an upper 4 or a 5, the winds are just as destructive, if not more so than the tidal surge), only for either tidal surges, or for freshwater flooding

The wind damage is what I was concerned about. Thirteen miles doesn't seem very far inland to avoid the severe winds of a cat 4 or 5. If it hit as a cat 4, how much would the wind lessen by the time it gets to my house thirteen miles away?

Not much... it'd probably still have winds over 120 mph(higher gusts). Pretty much over 100 mph your going to have some roof problems not to mention trees and powerlines down everywhere.

Thanks Brent. That was the info I was looking for.

[Radar]

I'm not against anyone staying in their home for a hurricane.. IF they feel their structure is safe then so be it, they should be allowed to stay. By golly our government has let daredevils like Evil Kneveil jump numerous greyhound buses on a motorcycle, only to endanger his own life. But IF a person is responsible for a life of a child, a physically or mentally disabled person or an elderly person that can not leave on their own and they reside in a mandatory evacuation area then our local officials should step in but only then!!!... I think officials really walk a fine line here and I do not envy their job.

[jdray]

I found this site last year - and was AMAZED by the storm surge information for my area! I live approximately 20 miles inland - so I should be pretty safe from surge, right? WRONG! I just didn't take into account all of the rivers and streams and creeks and the impact of a major storm on the inland waterways. (All that water has to go somewhere - and it'll push pretty far inland apparantly). I believe the assumption for these maps is a direct hit/NE quadrant type of scenario to effect these types of surges...and our last 'direct' hit was Dora in 1964 (before my time, btw). But my parents lived out on Jax Beach (a barrier island) during Dora and waited until too late to evacuate (that was before the 'tall' intercoastal waterway bridge of today). When my dad finally decided to leave, the bridge was closed and they were stuck. My mom was NOT a happy camper to be stuck on a barrier island with a hurricane coming.

Anyway - check out this site for Florida surge:

http://floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/

I was having trouble getting the maps to fully display if I just clicked on the county name (they were either coming up with just an outline or only paritally 'colored'). Anyway - if you right-click over your county name and Save Target As (pick a name/location) the maps will fully display.

LC

some of those maps are out of date.
my backyard is listed as a Cat 4 evac due to Black Creek and drainage. However, when this development was built, they raised the land about 8-10 feet. I had problems when they first insured the place saying that I had to have flood insurance, but they were going off of the old maps as well.

Granted, I would defintely have waterfront property during a Cat 3 storm or better, but my house would not flood.

[Scorpion]

I am wondering, if a Cat 5 made a direct hit on Palm Beach how big of a surge would come inland? I live 3 miles inland in a subdivision next to a body of water that connects to the Intracoastal. Would the surge travel up the river? The evacuation maps say we have to evacuate in a Cat 3 or higher(there are no mandatory evacs here though, because during Frances they didnt force us out), but do they make these maps by estimating how much water will come inland? I wonder if it is just a few inches or so theyre talking about or several feet of water.