If you trust yourself, how do you know when to leave

[Radar]

Some of you have brought up not wanting to leave because of looting. Which brings up a pretty good argument to local civil defense agencies. I feel sometimes Civil defense agencies try to boot people out too early, especially those that are evacuating to local shelters. Granted I know that they want citizens off the roads fairly early but by making those that are going into local shelters leave so soon arent they opening them up for vandalisim and other problems. Not to mention that the shelters are very uncomfortable especially for children and the elderly. While residents are sitting in shelters only a mile or two from their homes, while the weather is not too bad, all hell could be breaking loose at their homes and their neighbors homes... I say civil defense should encourage those that are going to into "local" shelters to be the last to leave because the police are busy on the roads directing traffic and doing other disaster prepardness duties and residents can watch their neighborhoods for looters and other problems, even if they are mandatory evacuation zones... Truly this is hypotheothetical but.. they could say.. "If you are planning to leave the area you must be out of your homes 24 hours before landfall... If you plan on going into a local shelter you must leave your home 6 hours before landfall etc" This may discourage some of the criminals if they know they are at risk of being caught.....

[Ziplock]

I am under the impression that here in Miami-Dade County there will be emphasis on "shelter in place" because it will be impossible to evacuate millions even with 48 hours lead time. Also, where do SE FLA coast residents go to be safe? A storm that tracks north of the projected path (which started the evac in the first place) could literally follow residents all the way up the state, with millions more joining the evac as their areas fell under hurricane warnings.

Anyone care to comment on this? Like some others, I feel safe, more or less, since my home did survive a direct hit from Andrew...but one thing I have learned is that every storm is different...no guarantees.
Zip

[Derek Ortt]

unless you are a trained meteorologist and now what the storm is doing and can quickly reassess the situation if necessary... if ordered to leave, do so with no questions asked.

[Derek Ortt]

Nice knowing you Scorpion. It is quite clear that your days are numbered


A structure surviving a direct hit from a cat 5, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

No offense, but that is one of the most idiotic attitudes anyone can have. Do you know that cat 5 winds are the same as an F-3 tornado? WAKE UP!

3 miles inland, you may only see a 5% reduction of the wind. So, if you are in one of those streaks, you can still get close to 200 m.p.h. (near F4)

[jdray]

unless you are a trained meteorologist and now what the storm is doing and can quickly reassess the situation if necessary... if ordered to leave, do so with no questions asked.

that I can agree with, our location is not under any regulation for evacuation. My inlaws are asked to leave during a Cat 3 or above and were asked to leave for Floyd.

[Cookiely]

Nice knowing you Scorpion. It is quite clear that your days are numbered


A structure surviving a direct hit from a cat 5, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

No offense, but that is one of the most idiotic attitudes anyone can have. Do you know that cat 5 winds are the same as an F-3 tornado? WAKE UP!

3 miles inland, you may only see a 5% reduction of the wind. So, if you are in one of those streaks, you can still get close to 200 m.p.h. (near F4)

Derek, I'm still a little confused on our situation. 13 miles inland from Tampa Bay and not in an evac or flood zone. We live in a brick home with mobile homes on two sides. Would we be safe for any category storm? If a cat 5 was headed to Tampa would they extend the evac zones which are in place or has that already been accounted for?

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not ata ll familiar with the Tampa evacuation zones. Dade county has zones A (which is always evacuate... barrier islands and extremely rain flood prone Sweetwater), B, which is far more serious and applies to the mainland east of US 1, and C which is for the real severe storms like Andrew, which extends well west of US 1 (basically a total evac of the county... for when the county is leveled).

Not sure if Tampa is the same way. However, even if there are voluntary evacuations and you are not sure, ALWAYS EVAC

[Derek Ortt]

I would disagree with Andrew only being 155 m.p.h. The 145KT value is actually based upon the aircraft reading an hour prior to landfall, and there was a 10mb drop in pressure during that final hour. An HRD H-wind (Landsea 2004) showed 153KT at landfall.

What we must remember in a cat 5, is that not everywhere receives the cat 5 winds and the wind streaks are uneven

For the record, I do not consider leaving unless two conditions are met: Am I needed at work and 2, is there a chance id a direct hit by a 125KT or higher hurricane (I use 125KT as the benchmark as my apt in S Miami survived Andrew and this area was on the cat 3/4 wind line... about 1 miles south of the old NHC building)

[Cookiely]

I'm not ata ll familiar with the Tampa evacuation zones. Dade county has zones A (which is always evacuate... barrier islands and extremely rain flood prone Sweetwater), B, which is far more serious and applies to the mainland east of US 1, and C which is for the real severe storms like Andrew, which extends well west of US 1 (basically a total evac of the county... for when the county is leveled).

Not sure if Tampa is the same way. However, even if there are voluntary evacuations and you are not sure, ALWAYS EVAC

Our evac is according to the Category of the storm. Category 1=A 2=B 3=C 4=D and Category 5=E which looks to be about one third of the county. As I said I'm thirteen miles from the water and not in an evacuation zone for a category 5 hurricane. Don't worry my motto is better safe than sorry. I assume that the evacuations are much more concerned with the storm surge than wind damage.

[Derek Ortt]

they dont evacuate for wind (which is something I wish would happen as in an upper 4 or a 5, the winds are just as destructive, if not more so than the tidal surge), only for either tidal surges, or for freshwater flooding

[dhweather]

I think because of traffic and evacuation problems, we will see more
requests by EOC officials for only flood-prone areas to evacuate.

I heard an interview on the radio a few weeks ago (missed who it was,
they said it was an official with South Florida EOC) that given the
constraints, they want flood prone people out first, then mobile homes
next, and non-secure homes third for evacuation. I really wish I
had caught the entire interview.

[Brent]

Nice knowing you Scorpion. It is quite clear that your days are numbered


A structure surviving a direct hit from a cat 5, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

No offense, but that is one of the most idiotic attitudes anyone can have. Do you know that cat 5 winds are the same as an F-3 tornado? WAKE UP!

3 miles inland, you may only see a 5% reduction of the wind. So, if you are in one of those streaks, you can still get close to 200 m.p.h. (near F4)

Exactly my thoughts. I think he would be in danger of surge reaching him too and washing away his home which had been obliterated by Cat 5 winds in the eyewall 1 hour earlier...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I heard the nhc building can stand up to cat5. Is that true?

[dhweather]

Well, supposedly it can withstand a cat 5, and Andrew did pass close by.

[Cookiely]

they dont evacuate for wind (which is something I wish would happen as in an upper 4 or a 5, the winds are just as destructive, if not more so than the tidal surge), only for either tidal surges, or for freshwater flooding

The wind damage is what I was concerned about. Thirteen miles doesn't seem very far inland to avoid the severe winds of a cat 4 or 5. If it hit as a cat 4, how much would the wind lessen by the time it gets to my house thirteen miles away?

[Brent]

I heard the nhc building can stand up to cat5. Is that true?

Yes... the new building(the one built since Andrew) can withstand a Cat 5.

[Brent]

they dont evacuate for wind (which is something I wish would happen as in an upper 4 or a 5, the winds are just as destructive, if not more so than the tidal surge), only for either tidal surges, or for freshwater flooding

The wind damage is what I was concerned about. Thirteen miles doesn't seem very far inland to avoid the severe winds of a cat 4 or 5. If it hit as a cat 4, how much would the wind lessen by the time it gets to my house thirteen miles away?

Not much... it'd probably still have winds over 120 mph(higher gusts). Pretty much over 100 mph your going to have some roof problems not to mention trees and powerlines down everywhere.

[dhweather]

Matt, I did some snorting around and found this, it's some good reading:


http://www.wx4nhc.org/

[Frank P]

Interesting comments from all.... I live on the beach in Biloxi, my original house survived Camille with 2 feet of water in it, but no structural damage... Since then I have built a two story addition in front of that original house, which is now all connected.... I've hurricane proofed as much of my house as I can but it is a wooden framed house with vinyl siding {rated for 200} mph on a concrete slab.... (hurricane proofing such as using three types of hurricane ties/straps on each and every rafter and joice, metal straps on every stud, metal straps connecting first and second floors, anchor bolts throughout in slab, one inch rich plywood on exterior of first floor, with 3/4 inch tongue and groove wood on interior walls, roof plywood glued to rafters and nailed, functioning storm shutters for every window made out of one inch thick treated pine decking).

I have stayed in this house on the beach for all storms on the MS coast since 1975 and will take each storm on a case by case basis. During Camille I was living on Point Cadet, the eastern most tip of Biloxi and we had 5 feet of water in that house, no fun. I have not had any damage to speak of from any storms that have occurred over this time period (a few shingles blew off) from Elane 85 but they were old anyway.

However, I am much more worried about two huge Oak trees in my front yard falling on my house than surge or wind, unless we are talking about a Cat 5... then I think I'll be worried about everything. And you don't have to be on the beach for trees to fall and cause serious damage to your house, especially those nasty ole tall pine trees...

Storms that hit to the east of me, and plenty have over the years are basically non events for someone staying on the beach... seems to me you have to be reasonably close to the eye wall if you are on the weak side of the storm to get any really significant damage or severe weather to speak of. I stay prepared and monitor the storm, then I make my decision as to what I'll due based on what's predicted. My wife works for Mississippi Power and is on call so she can't leave and rides out the storm at the Jack Watson Plant in Gulfport. I think if you have confidence in your home, especially in one you built, and your surrounding area, you can make wise decisions. I WOULD however evacuate for a Cat 5 cane if I knew it was going to hit within 100 miles of me, period. I evacuate to the MS Power Plant, at least I'd still have power there....

[cajungal]

It is not the wind, I am worried about, it is the surge. Louisiana is different than any other coastal state in the nation. I live between 25-30 miles inland, and they said if Ivan had hit us head on, we would of seen the surge here. May be hard to believe for some of you folks in other states. But, it is true. Nothing but marshes and water here. Nothing to protect us.