GFS HINTING AT SOME SORT OF GULF LOW DEVELOPING

[Rainband]

I think there's a little too much being made over someone posting a dern emoticon.

[Swimdude]

I've said it once; i'll say it a thousand more times. Houston is overdue.

[Rainband]

I've said it once; i'll say it a thousand more times. Houston is overdue.

It doesn't show the phantom low anywhere near texas

[Swimdude]

Unfortunately, all I can do is dream... Dream that there MIGHT be a SMALL chance of a currently NONEXISTANT storm to come towards Houston...

If only that didn't sound so much like, "Half of a half of a half of a half of a half... etc..."

[Stratosphere747]

Unfortunately, all I can do is dream... Dream that there MIGHT be a SMALL chance of a currently NONEXISTANT storm to come towards Houston...

If only that didn't sound so much like, "Half of a half of a half of a half of a half... etc..."

I can only dream that nothing comes anywhere close to Houston...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This shows that it develops a system then moves it northeastward into Florida. But it looks to be very weak. Then it turns it extratropical very fast. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 18/71.html

30 years of storms that took this track.
Tropical cyclones that have tooken this track.

Bonnie
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane Gordon
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Yes it is a little to the west. Hurricane Opal!!!
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane Alberto 1982
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Subtropical storm 1 1982
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Subtropical storm 1 1976
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow it brings it up the east coast!!!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

Sounds interesting.

[clfenwi]

From MLB AFD 0245L

MON-WED...AS PER THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE...NAM IS THE PREFERRED
MODEL DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND SUBSEQUENT
SPURIOUS LOW DEVELOPMENT EXHIBITED BY THE GFS...

From HPC QPFD

THE GFS IS ABSOLUTELY
UNTRUSTWORTHY DUE TO THE SEVERAL AND I MEAN SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
GRID SCALE FEEDBACK QPF MAXES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEWRD
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

Explantion of grid scale feedback here: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpfbombs/

[Cookiely]

You gotta hand it to the GFS, its stubborn.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 190807
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
245 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GFS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
SURFACE LOW BY SUNDAY EVENING SOUTHWEST OF FL. WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENTS BRINGING WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCE THIS SCENARIO STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY WINDS ARE ADJUSTED FROM
ETA/DGEX AND WNAWAVE. SATELLITE DATA SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NORTH OF FL STILL REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN GEORGIA AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE HALF NORTHERN
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES...FAIRLY ACTIVE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AT 200 AM EDT DOPPLER RADAR WAS SHOWING
RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THESE COUNTIES.

GFS IS BRINGING TOO MUCH MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS BY MONDAY UNDER
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. WILL GO WITH ETA FOR MOISTURE FIELD KEEPING
GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE AREA CONFINED BELOW 700 MB. BY KEEPING SURFACE
WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT WILL INCLUDE SEA BREEZE FORMATION IN THE
AFTERNOONS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH WILL HELP IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVING INLAND
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING.

WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE MID LEVELS...AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.


&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT)...ELONGATED POS TILTED MID LEVEL TROF AND
ASSOC STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN
THE LONG TERM...AT LEAST EARLY ON IN THE LONG TERM. GFS...AND ETA TO
A LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTH LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MID LEVEL TROF BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...IT APPEARS VERY MOIST S-SW DEEP
LAYER FLOW WITH HI PW'S WILL REMAIN WITH US THRU LATE THU...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. BY FRI...THE PARENT MID
LEVEL TROF SHOULD BE OFF THE EAST COAST WITH JUST A WEAKNESS TO OUR
WEST...AND HIGH PRES AND SE FLOW AT THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
POPS THAT REFLECT USUAL CLIMO OR DIURNAL PATTERN FOR FRI INTO SAT.
TEMPS NEAR CLIMO FOR THE PERIOD...EXCEPT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGHS WED AND THU REFLECTING HIGHER POPS AND
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

&&

[TampaFl]

Agree Cookiely, very stubborn GFS. Also agree with NWS Tampa. Although now the weather is getting quite disturbed from the Yucatan across to Western & Central Cuba. Maybe this is what the GFS is "seeing"???. With the trough extending sw into the Gulf, it could pull this moisture up over South & Central Florida. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

FXUS62 KMFL 190531
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...TROUGH ALONG E U.S. COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO E
GULF OF MEX AS STRONG MIDWEST RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO E CANADA. THE
PERSISTENT SW WIND FLOW ALOFT DEEPENS IN THE GULF AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO TAP COPIUS DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
YUCATAN EASTWARD ACROSS THE N CARIB/CUBA AND PULLS THIS MOISTURE N.
ALL MODELS PAINT SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH EVEN "DRY" NGM VIA PROG ROABS
BROACHING THE 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER BARRIER BY MON...WITH GFS
THE WETTEST.
THE PAST FEW DAYS...DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE E 1/2 OF THE S FLA PENINSULA WITH BROWARD/
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN. RAINFALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 3.5
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS S FLA. LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AT THE MOMENT
...BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...DUE TO VERY SATURATED CONDITIONS
FROM RAINS THE PAST 2 DAYS...ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO RAPID NUISANCE
FLOODING IN ANY RAINS. HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL BE ADDRESSED MORE
THOROUGHLY BY THE DAY SHIFT BEFORE ANY HIGHLIGHTS ISSUED. THE HWO
WILL BE BEEFED-UP TO DISCUSS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS.

[cycloneye]

There is no other model (CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET) supporting what the lone GFS is progging so I wont pay attention to what the bad convective feedback and hyperactive model says.Until there is a consensus of all the models I dont go with what only one model the GFS says.I wonder why all the NWS offices talk about the GFS only.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

[Cookiely]

There is no other model (CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET) supporting what the lone GFS is progging so I wont pay attention to what the bad convective feedback and hyperactive model says.Until there is a consensus of all the models I dont go with what only one model the GFS says.I wonder why all the NWS offices talk about the GFS only.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Why mention the GFS in the discussion if they think its a bunch of baloney?

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS is the US gov't model and the NWS is a gov't agency. I have heard reports that the only model an NWS forecaster can base a forecast off of is the GFS for that reason

[donsutherland1]

Derek,

There are NWS forecasters--i.e., at Taunton, Upton, etc.--who base their forecasts on a fairly wide range of tools and do not rely solely on the GFS. They do study the GFS but don't always agree with its outlook. Some of them have even written in their AFDs why they were differing from the GFS in making their forecast.

[cycloneye]

Ok Derek thanks for the answer.

A question for you Derek.

I read at Tropical Analysis forum that you said the GFS model is worthless in the tropics and I ask why is that?

[Cookiely]

the GFS is the US gov't model and the NWS is a gov't agency. I have heard reports that the only model an NWS forecaster can base a forecast off of is the GFS for that reason

Thank you so much Derek for explaining that to me. It must be tough for the forecasters if they know that something is wrong with the GFS.

[Stratosphere747]

The NWS forecaster out of Tampa cleary downplays what the GFS is showing.

Try to give these guys some credit here. If they don't believe the GFS, the good ones are going to tell you.

[Brent]

We should be WAY down the list of names by now... the GFS has spun up so many storms since Arlene. It's only been a week.