Wow check out the spin

[Guest]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

looks like its naked 20n 93w

[wxman57]

Yep, a little eddy near 20.5N/93W. No convection anywhere near it though. Look a bit farther to the east over the Yucatan and you'll see a mid-level circulation near 19N/90.5W. That would probably be the area to monitor as there is convection associated with it.

I do think that there is TC development potential down there over the next few days, but I don't see any threat to the northern Gulf. Very strong W-NW flow aloft is building out across the Gulf. So if something develops in the BoC there are two possibilities.

1. It would move WNW and move inland into Mexico

2. It might drift far enough northward to be caught by the winds in the central Gulf and driven NE toward southern Florida.

3. It may not develop much more than it is now, and the moisture could track northward with the low level flow and eventually bring some rain to Texas.

I think if it takes the 2nd option, then we'd be looking at another sheared TS and mainly a rain event as it passed Florida. But, the 1st or 3rd options may be more likely.

[Guest]

I'd be really glad to get the 3rd option

[dhweather]

I'd be really glad to get the 3rd option

I think most folks your way would really dig that option.

From what I've read and seen here, SE Texas is under drought like conditions?

[tailgater]

Yeah I see it, a little baby swirl with no t-storms but of coarse we'll watch it. 20.5 N 93.0 W

[southerngale]

I'd be really glad to get the 3rd option

I think most folks your way would really dig that option.

From what I've read and seen here, SE Texas is under drought like conditions?

Yes, even with some of the recent rains, we're still over 10 inches below average in the last few months. We could use some significant rain.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This looked like a Eddie to.
That is tropical depression 4 of 2000. Showing you that a depression doe's not need to have alot of convection to be a depression. All it needs is a closed LLCC.

[ROCK]

Yep, a little eddy near 20.5N/93W. No convection anywhere near it though. Look a bit farther to the east over the Yucatan and you'll see a mid-level circulation near 19N/90.5W. That would probably be the area to monitor as there is convection associated with it.

I do think that there is TC development potential down there over the next few days, but I don't see any threat to the northern Gulf. Very strong W-NW flow aloft is building out across the Gulf. So if something develops in the BoC there are two possibilities.

1. It would move WNW and move inland into Mexico

2. It might drift far enough northward to be caught by the winds in the central Gulf and driven NE toward southern Florida.

3. It may not develop much more than it is now, and the moisture could track northward with the low level flow and eventually bring some rain to Texas.

I think if it takes the 2nd option, then we'd be looking at another sheared TS and mainly a rain event as it passed Florida. But, the 1st or 3rd options may be more likely.

Thats odd?? I thought the NWS said we could get some rain out of this next week. I hope so. We are way below normal for precip in June.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also as you can see that LLC/Eddie has been thrown out from the convection. In which case if this where to form some convection over it again over the central BOC. Then things could get interesting.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[stormcloud]

hats odd?? I thought the NWS said we could get some rain out of this next week. I hope so.

It seems the NWS is talking more about a slug of moisture moving westward across the GOM than from something down the BOC right now.