If you trust yourself, how do you know when to leave

[wxman57]

They call them "mobile homes" for a reason.

And, once again, I need to stress that in many cases you'll need to evacuate as much as 2 days before landfall. How can any of you say you'll stay for a Cat 1 or Cat 2 but leave for a Cat 3 or higher when we cannot even forecast hurricane intensity more accurately than 1 category a day (on average)? Any tropical storm or hurricane has the potential to strengthen to a Cat 3 or higher in 48 hours given favorable conditions aloft. Unless meteorologists can guarantee that moderate to high wind shear will persist up until landfall (as with Arlene last week), then you need to treat any storm as if it has the potential to become a major hurricane in a very short period of time.

So if you're in a mobile home for ANY named storm, you need to get out. And if you're in the storm surge area for any category hurricane, then you probably need to leave for any storm. Or you could wait until the day of landfall and watch a Cat 2 become a Cat 4 6 hours before landfall, like with Charley last year. Then you have no time to leave.

[Anonymous]

As one of the people that will have to come retrieve the bodies later- think about this.

When winds reach 30 mph to 45 mph, the supervisor of the fire crew has the discretion not to respond to calls for help, due to crew safety. Remember, these are crews who are accustomed to risking their own lives to save others, riding in a 50,000 pound truck. If they feel threatened, what do you think is going on?

When winds reach 45 mph+, the fire department stops responding. Period.

If that isn't anough, even a minimal hurricane spawns tornados.

It isn't THAT the wind is blowing, it is WHAT the wind is blowing. People constantly make poor decisions and then expect us to make it right, even at our own peril.

[Droop12]

Last year during Ivan, I knew it was time to leave when the police were driving up and down the streets on their loudspeakers telling us to leave. It was almost surreal because it was sunny outside still but to the South you could see the high clouds associated with Ivan creeping in. I will remember that day (Tuesday) forever.

[bevgo]

If the storm is headed your way--GET OUT. I think it is much more intellegent to be safe. Why take the risk. If the storm turns you can return home just a little worse for the wear. If it does not turn --well guess what! I had to stay for Georges in New Orleans-requirement of the job-in downtown. I was terrified. Thank God he turned away from us. I hope I never have to go through that again.

There was another headed to NO a couple of years after I moved there. I was working in a Psych hospital and had to stay. We were right across the street from the river levee. It missed us but a tornado hit us, ripped a 1 ton AC handler off the roof and knocked some trees down. I was trying to get some sleep when that happened and the force ripped my window open. After the storm we walded to the levee and looked at the river--it looked to be running backwards earlier--and saw two ships with their anchor chains wrapped around each other several times.

If I can leave i will go. I love storms but do NOT want to meet one personally and shake hands.

JMHO

[Radar]

Fortunately or Unfortunately for me, I dont have to listen to the NWS or my own instincts... My job makes the decision for me and it says I have to stay... Which is fine except, I work about a mile from Gulf of Mexico and my place of business sits right on the "Back Bay" so it is like I'm on a peninsula, surrounded by water. But luckily for me, we have huge generators so we have electricity, running water, air conditioning etc...
But I'm honor bound to serve my government and it's people so I do as I'm told, not qualms, no arguments and no second guessing it!

[jdray]

Im far enough inland in a recently built house.

Ill stay for pretty much a Cat 3 or lower hitting our area. Unless a tornado hits us (Frances did spawn one over us, never forget that sound again) we will be ok. Just powerless in the dark.

Something along the lines of a Cat 4/5, Im gone either north or west.

[wxman57]

Im far enough inland in a recently built house.

Ill stay for pretty much a Cat 3 or lower hitting our area. Unless a tornado hits us (Frances did spawn one over us, never forget that sound again) we will be ok. Just powerless in the dark.

Something along the lines of a Cat 4/5, Im gone either north or west.

Are you a meteorologist? Can you forecast hurricane intensity 2 days before landfall (or more) when you'll have to make the decision to evacuate? You didn't mention if you're in an area prone to storm surge. If you are, then you need to treat every storm that threatens landfall there as if it could intensify in those 2 days leading up to landfall and get out.

[Brent]

Im far enough inland in a recently built house.

Ill stay for pretty much a Cat 3 or lower hitting our area. Unless a tornado hits us (Frances did spawn one over us, never forget that sound again) we will be ok. Just powerless in the dark.

Something along the lines of a Cat 4/5, Im gone either north or west.

Once again... this is the Charley problem. Had you been living in Port Charlotte you wouldn't have left because A. It was a Cat 2. B. The best chance of landfall was in Tampa and with a small hurricane, you'd get very little.

That could not have been more wrong.

I know not every hurricane is that way, but how will you be able to tell the difference when faced with the decision?

[jdray]

Im far enough inland in a recently built house.

Ill stay for pretty much a Cat 3 or lower hitting our area. Unless a tornado hits us (Frances did spawn one over us, never forget that sound again) we will be ok. Just powerless in the dark.

Something along the lines of a Cat 4/5, Im gone either north or west.

Are you a meteorologist? Can you forecast hurricane intensity 2 days before landfall (or more) when you'll have to make the decision to evacuate? You didn't mention if you're in an area prone to storm surge. If you are, then you need to treat every storm that threatens landfall there as if it could intensify in those 2 days leading up to landfall and get out.

Im 40 miles inland. Not in a flood area, although if a storm of the century worse case scenario situation happened, my backyard would get some water due to the part of the little black creek I am near. (back of my house is a water conservation area).

For me to make a decision to leave is simple. I have places north and west already to go, as well as south. (Friends and Family) and during Hurricane season, my things are ready to go at any time. I can be gone in under an hour (with a 5 month old to boot). All I need is 12-18 hours before landfall to leave with time to spare even with Traffic.

[jdray]

Im far enough inland in a recently built house.

Ill stay for pretty much a Cat 3 or lower hitting our area. Unless a tornado hits us (Frances did spawn one over us, never forget that sound again) we will be ok. Just powerless in the dark.

Something along the lines of a Cat 4/5, Im gone either north or west.

Once again... this is the Charley problem. Had you been living in Port Charlotte you wouldn't have left because A. It was a Cat 2. B. The best chance of landfall was in Tampa and with a small hurricane, you'd get very little.

That could not have been more wrong.

I know not every hurricane is that way, but how will you be able to tell the difference when faced with the decision?

Charley I would have left for, I knew that one was coming in south of Tampa somewhere. I am not a meterologist but can read weather patterns and actually listen to ones I trust. (NHC, George Winterling and a few others).

Like my post above, I need only 12-18 hours before I am gone.


I was prepared to leave for Frances, Charley, Jeanne and even Ivan, just did not need to.

[feederband]

I agree and disagree....I live in a manufactured home . I left in Frances and got looted and broke my foot during the evac. Stay with my oldest boy and rode out Jeanne. It was scary ,it lasted 10 times longer than what I thought. But we suffer minor damage to the house but it would have been alot worse. We had something hit the roof and during the storm was able to shore it up we probably would of lost part of the roof and much more. Also had a pine tree that was sinking on one side it would of fell on house I got a couple of neighbors during a weaker part of the storm we got ropes and cut it down. Some skirting and siding also went air born and went into orange groves next to us. We were able to retrieve every piece because we watched were they went. Also I did not board up the windows next time I will ,we had 3 windows try to pop out frame and all. Went to the shop and got 2 by 4's brought them inside and propped them up against the windows, even with that I thought we would lose that room.....Make along story short .If I would of stayed in Frances I wouldn't got looted or broke my foot. If I would have left in Jeanne I might of lost the house..

[vbhoutex]

I agree and disagree....I live in a manufactured home . I left in Frances and got looted and broke my foot during the evac. Stay with my oldest boy and rode out Jeanne. It was scary ,it lasted 10 times longer than what I thought. But we suffer minor damage to the house but it would have been alot worse. We had something hit the roof and during the storm was able to shore it up we probably would of lost part of the roof and much more. Also had a pine tree that was sinking on one side it would of fell on house I got a couple of neighbors during a weaker part of the storm we got ropes and cut it down. Some skirting and siding also went air born and went into orange groves next to us. We were able to retrieve every piece because we watched were they went. Also I did not board up the windows next time I will ,we had 3 windows try to pop out frame and all. Went to the shop and got 2 by 4's brought them inside and propped them up against the windows, even with that I thought we would lose that room.....Make along story short .If I would of stayed in Frances I wouldn't got looted or broke my foot. If I would have left in Jeanne I might of lost the house..

The results of your actions, imo, do not make a good reason to stay in a "probably" unsafe home in a hurricane. Life can not be replaced. Property can.

[feederband]

I agree and disagree....I live in a manufactured home . I left in Frances and got looted and broke my foot during the evac. Stay with my oldest boy and rode out Jeanne. It was scary ,it lasted 10 times longer than what I thought. But we suffer minor damage to the house but it would have been alot worse. We had something hit the roof and during the storm was able to shore it up we probably would of lost part of the roof and much more. Also had a pine tree that was sinking on one side it would of fell on house I got a couple of neighbors during a weaker part of the storm we got ropes and cut it down. Some skirting and siding also went air born and went into orange groves next to us. We were able to retrieve every piece because we watched were they went. Also I did not board up the windows next time I will ,we had 3 windows try to pop out frame and all. Went to the shop and got 2 by 4's brought them inside and propped them up against the windows, even with that I thought we would lose that room.....Make along story short .If I would of stayed in Frances I wouldn't got looted or broke my foot. If I would have left in Jeanne I might of lost the house..

The results of your actions, imo, do not make a good reason to stay in a "probably" unsafe home in a hurricane. Life can not be replaced. Property can.

I used to preach the same thing. To me its like the person that gets choked to death by a seat belt. Either way you could lose. Just after coming home and seeing we got looted really ticked me off.....I would of been happier if the whole house would of got blowned away. Thats why I stayed in Jeanne. If I thought Jeanne was going to be as bad as it was I would of probably left. But we did not and saved alot of damage to the home.

[Pebbles]

I think there are many situations going on here so the point is getting missed.

If your in an evacuation area and officials say go... you should go... always.

If you live in a mobile home ..you should go... always.

If you live in a strong house a little bit inland ...that leaves room for judgment.

The original poster lives in a mobile home... others posting in this thread live in strong houses close to the ocean or further inland. Each of these situations are delt with in a different way.

When you go no one says you have to leave the state or head WAY out of the storms way (but probably would be a good idea if you have a powerful storm heading your way... I would of never stayed for a 4 or 5 where I use to live... other's may be further inland, close to a shelter or in a very well build home and may make it ok, so decide to stay).

But say if you live in a mobile home and can stay with friends or family that lived close by that have a strong house. It's a MUCH better option then staying in a mobile home. Even a shelter is better then staying in a mobile home.

So technically sometimes if you know where your going you may not need 2 days to evacuate (example your going to friends or shelter that is 5 miles down the road). BUT!!! Keep in mind how much time you need to get to where you need to go. Make sure you have a plan BEFORE you need to make these considerations.. and ALWAYS remember that a storm affects you WAY before the eye reaches you.

There is a Big difference from 12 hours before the eye hits you and 12 hours before the first tropical force winds or feeder bands hit. Too many make their plans 12 hours before the eye hit and realize they are already IN the storm... my hubby did this to us once.. not fun.. and something he promised to never do to us again.

[Scorpion]

We'll stay even up to a 5 probably. The house I live in is well built and 3 miles inland. Last year we stayed for Frances and we were expecting a strong 4 or 5 coming in and we didnt budge. Kinda ironic we left for Jeanne because we were expecting a low 3.

[jdray]

good post pebbles.

[feederband]

Do know one thing though if you going to leave, leave early in Jeanne the main rain bands were probably 5 hours away when we got hit by a runaway cell knocked out power and all 4 exit routes we bloked be MANY tress so even if we wanted to leave it would been impossible.

[Brent]

We'll stay even up to a 5 probably. The house I live in is well built and 3 miles inland. Last year we stayed for Frances and we were expecting a strong 4 or 5 coming in and we didnt budge. Kinda ironic we left for Jeanne because we were expecting a low 3.

You might want to check out how far the surge would go in a 5... if a storm comes in just south of you, I don't believe there would be much left.

[MGC]

The house I am living in now survived Camille a block off the beach in Pass Christian with little damage. The walls are solid brick, no wood. The house is just off Second St in the area where there is some elevation in the Pass. Camille's surge didn't flood here. I stayed durning the approach of Ivan last year. Considering the danger and expense of evacuation, couple with the fact that the house is built like a fort and had already survived a Cat 5 gave me confidence to stay. I was a bit nervous when Ivan was just off the mouth of the river and still a Cat 4 though.....MGC

[yzerfan]

After some hella-problems with the Opal evacuation, my county takes more of a 'shelter-in-place' policy attitude than a lot of areas do. ( of course barrier islands, low areas and mobile homes go under evacuation orders early)

We're a couple miles inland in an area that doesn't flood during 500 year weather events. House is sturdy, last time the roof was replaced was under newer building code rules, and we've whacked the rest of the junk pines that caused us problems during Ivan.

It would take a pretty significant looking storm to get me moving further inland.