6/17/2005 5:30PM TWO

[dhweather]

ABNT20 KNHC 172107
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED
HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ABNT20 KNHC 172107
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED
HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Wasn't Arlene said to have a Undefined or poorly defined surface cirualtion?

[Thunder44]

Matt, they just don't want to be bothered with it. Even if it were to become a TS, it would become extratropical after 1 or 2 advisories.

[Brent]

ABNT20 KNHC 172107
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD COLDER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED
HERE OR ELSEWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Wasn't Arlene said to have a Undefined or poorly defined surface cirualtion?

Arlene was also a threat to land... and could have been a significant hurricane had the shear and dry air went away. This one is headed towards colder water.

[dhweather]

At which point?

When it was an unnamed broad low pressure? A tropical depression?
a tropical storm?

A broad low doesn't have a surface or low level circulation.
A tropical depression does, but is typically ill-defined.
A tropical storm usually does, unless the environment is not favorable,
such as dry air and shear. Arlene suffered from both.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What I'm saying if it has a "surface cirulation" why not say theres a chance. They upgraded many systems that where only a few Advisories. Tropical depression 10 last year. I don't think its a depression yet but why not upgrade if it where to form into one. I hope I don't take alot of heat for saying what I feel about this.

[cycloneye]

Matt

Please dont start another NHC bashing again.They know all of what is going on with that system south of Bermuda as they have all the necessary tools to get the data and have a conclusion about the system.Those folks at NHC haved made big sacrifices studying the science of weather and they know what they are doing.Imagine if the NHC didn't exist where do the people go for oficial information about the tropics to accu,TWC?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Man, I wish I could get a dollar for every time I caught heat for stating my option.


I would be a very rich man!!!

[rainstorm]

i dont think matt is doing any bashing here, just stating an opinion

[vbhoutex]

The question has been answered already. It would be a waste of resources for something that is not threatening anyone and is like hundreds of other lows we don't even look at during times when it isn't hurricane season.

[Swimdude]

Amen to that, Matt. Ahem... I mean, why would the NHC say this thing doesn't have chance of formation, if it really does? Isn't that giving out false information? However, I do agree that since this thing is so far North; it's bound to become extratropical in no time. There's likely no threat to land either. I say lets go back to scrutinizing those models that are predicting storms that don't even exist yet. [In other words, I see it as strange how much hype there is right now... As we don't have a single storm in sight. I honestly just think we're all hurricane-deprived, and Arlene was a disappointment. ]

[cycloneye]

The question has been answered already. It would be a waste of resources for something that is not threatening anyone and is like hundreds of other lows we don't even look at during times when it isn't hurricane season.

Amen David.If NHC haved been classifying every low out there the season already would haved 10 named systems. And when all is set and done on november 30th over 50 systems would be named in 2005.

[dhweather]

What I'm saying if it has a "surface cirulation" why not say theres a chance. They upgraded many systems that where only a few Advisories. Tropical depression 10 last year. I don't think its a depression yet but why not upgrade if it where to form into one. I hope I don't take alot of heat for saying what I feel about this.

There's a chance you have the winning lottery ticket in your hand.
That doesn't mean that you will even have one number that matches.

The NHC has FOUR PhD Hurricane Specialists, all with extensive
experience in the field. In addition, they have a world-class supporting
cast of experts in the TAFB. I expect professionals to only say that the
possibility of development exists when it actually exists. I am going to trust
them above all others.

What do you mean about TD 10? I can not understand what you are trying to state.