10:30 EDT TWO, "SLOW DEVEL. IS POSSIBLE"

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on June 16, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of disturbed weather is located about 400 miles southwest of
Bermuda. This system remains poorly organized. However...some
slow development is possible over the next day or two as it moves
northeastward.

Cloudiness and showers continue over portions of the central and
western Caribbean Sea...mainly in association with an upper-level
trough. Development is not expected at this time.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.

Forecaster Beven

[Scorpion]

Hey we're getting somewhere lol before they said no development.

[Radar]

That disturbance 400 miles south of Bermuda that may have a remote chance for some slow development... IF it does develop... Can I have some chips with that FISH?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It really looks to be forming a low pressure area near 27 north/68 west while moving eastward. It has wraped some over the last few satellite frames. Remember people that a system doe's "not" have to be over 80 degree seasurface water to make it tropical. I think tihs may have a good chance over the next 36 hours before it moves into shear or cold water. We will see if this can get its act together. Shear seems low for now.

Here is a system that formed near this arear in 2002/Josephine...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Went to see a system that formed over cooler then 80 degree water.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane Karen 2001
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane Humberto 2001
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


A little southwest of here this seems to be developing.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Tropical storm Nadine. I think this might be close to the track of any tropical cyclone that forms from this.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Yes a little north of any cyclone forming from this. Hurricane Karl 1998.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[george_r_1961]

Im calling for possible development but I would not bet the farm on it. It could affect Bermuda so I wouldnt call it a fish just yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks to be wraping around a low pressure area. I say this has a chance. Remember all those storms above I posted.

[HURAKAN]

It really looks to be forming a low pressure area near 27 north/68 west while moving eastward. It has wraped some over the last few satellite frames. Remember people that a system doe's "not" have to be over 80 degree seasurface water to make it tropical. I think tihs may have a good chance over the next 36 hours before it moves into shear or cold water. We will see if this can get its act together. Shear seems low for now.

Here is a system that formed near this arear in 2002/Josephine...
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Went to see a system that formed over cooler then 80 degree water.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane Karen 2001
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane Humberto 2001
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


A little southwest of here this seems to be developing.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Tropical storm Nadine. I think this might be close to the track of any tropical cyclone that forms from this.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Yes a little north of any cyclone forming from this. Hurricane Karl 1998.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

All the storms you posted belong to the month of Septembre or October. The atmosphetic conditions and also sea-surface waters are different in those months than in June.



This is a better example.

[Swimdude]

Even if this thing does form, which is looking unlikely, as the water temps take a skydive as we move northward, it'll just spaz around in the Atlantic...



Where the center of this thing appears to be, the water temperature is between 75 and 78 degrees.

Not prime conditions.