Steve wrote:Other than it's unsolicited, what's the beef? JB doesn't play the Steve Lyons or NHC game. Believe me, I wish he were with some other outfit than Accuweather because he's the only thing they've got going for them. But he digs a lot deeper into the future. People bash him all the time, but none of them ever want to put their own arses on the line. I don't recall any guru on this site, at the weather service or anywhere else talking about the 2nd week of June as a potential trouble spot in the Western Caribbean or Eastern Gulf back in early May.
Not saying you Mike, but there are too many weather weenies who really are wannabes who get all pissed off at Joe B. because they can't hang with his pattern recognition skills. That's all there is to it. He said after Arlene, watch after a trof split in the 10-15 day period in the WC or Gulf again. That would be mid-late next week. Even if there is only a deep surge of tropical moisture, who else was offering a heads up at a possible 2nd June storm (besides guesscasters) and also giving the methodology?
Screw paying for any of ACCU's services, but there isn't much comparison for what Joe does and what anyone else on here that bashes him does. That's a fact.
Steve
Well, here's one thing...and I don't have a lot of time now so I'll have to address this more later. It's an easy principle and it happens over and over again (and please note I am not bashing Joe B here, he didn't write nor send the article...this beef is with Accuweather...and it is a much larger beef than just this statement or email):
When you cover every single possibiliy, you can't be wrong.
Where else, besides the Gulf or Western Caribbean is a June storm going to hit? Answer, in the last 100+ years, is no where else. Yet, the article (not JB here, the ARTICLE) suggests it's a big deal that he called for a storm someplace in the western Caribbean or Gulf, as if something else is possible. Calling for an early June storm (does that mean before the 15th?) what does that really mean...there's no context...it's not verifiable and they are playing by a different set of rules than the NHC does.
There is much much more than this in the email, which looks more like a press release, and like I said I will cover it tonight.
Here's a similar prediction from me so I can go ahead and have someone write an email about it in September.
"There will probably be a hurricane in August, and it could strike the US Coast from Brownsville to Maine, or perhaps someplace in the Lesser Antillies or the Caribbean sea, if not it will go out to sea and maybe affect Bermuda."
MW
