Low forming east of bahamas!

[drezee]

Pressure are not that low, but LLC seems to be forming.

[Swimdude]

Perhaps it's just me, but that thing even looks like it has some crazy sheer working against it. I'm more interested in that blob south of there...

However, this infrared makes your argument look better; on the surface, at least.

[Swimdude]

Well, excuse that. Maybe it's my crummy internet service [AOL], but that image didn't show up as updated...

After it's all said and done, this does look impressive. I wonder if the NHC has anything to say about it... After looking around, they sure don't seem concerned about much right now.

[Brent]

What on earth??? That image is from MAY 11TH! (The one from Drezee)

[Thunder44]

I showed in this another thread. It's on the floater.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[drezee]

hit refresh brent

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, you can see it on the visible. This should be the one to watch, if only it didn't have so much shear.

[margaritabeach]

hit refresh brent

]

if you look at the latest image they are alll from 5/12. If you hit the loop it is current...

[Swimdude]

Haha Brent - that's exactly what happened to me. I was wondering why I was observing a nearly tranquil Atlantic Ocean. And somehow, it refreshed itself.

[HURAKAN]

NOT A LOT OF FLESH FOR THE BONES! IS LOOKING LIKE A GHOST; THE WIND SHEAR IS NOT ALLOWING DEVELOPMENT.

[cyclonaut]

That one also says May 11th>

[cyclonaut]

This is whats going on today.

[HURAKAN]

That one also says May 11th>

I you see closely the image that I posted says 16 June 2005.

[Zadok]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.

[HURAKAN]

No major changes are occurring right now with this disturbance.

[cycloneye]

My take about the area of concern in this thread is that the upper flow will cause the area to move progressivly to the NE going away from the warm waters that it is now to the fishes and cooler sst's.Also It is embedded to the TUTT trough located in the western atlantic and that is not favorable for development.The only way that this disturbance can develop is for it to remain in the above 80*F waters and detach itself from the TUTT trough.If this doesn't form into something I think that it will be a while that we will not see Bret somewhere so the waiting game would be longer.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There seems to be a low pressure area developing around 26 north/70 west. But you all know how it has been like for the last week or so. They went inland or got sheared to death...

[Derek Ortt]

cyc,

these types of TC's can easily develop over 70F SST.

SST does not in any way affect intensity change (except for providing extra moisture, allowing for a storm to become a major hurricane). It is the temperature difference between the SST and the upper air temps that determines if a TC can form and intensify in the TS and cat 1-2 stage (via the instability parameters). These troughs have colder air aloft; thus, they can develop over very cool waters

[george_r_1961]

Good point Derek. Until recently I always believed it was a hard and fast rule that SST's be above 80 for development to occur. Its the instability caused by the temperature differences between the surface layer and the upper layers that cause cionvection. Add favorable upper winds and preferably an upper level high and you have a tropical cyclone.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Derek, It doe's not need to be 80 degrees to form a cyclone. Just a differents in temperature/airmass.