Missions to BOC starting at 18:00z 6/16/05 (If Necessary)

Thunder44 · #41 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 7:42 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Upper high is forming over the system. Which makes the high/deep convection spin clock wise. While you can see the lower clouds spinning counter clock wise. Which is the low pressure area developing. Can't wait for recon. Boc storms are pretty rare only happen once every 3 or 4 years on avg.

It's hard to determine that low pressue is developing at the surface, without using more obs around that area.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #42 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 7:48 am

Thats what makes it interesting using the data or info you have at hand. In which appears, by what I can see by my knowledge. That a low presure appears to be forming. It could be the outflow making it look like that. But with a few more hours of visible we will have a better idea. In then when hopefully a recon gets in there we will have soild info.

Thunder44 · #43 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 7:50 am

The cordinates on the navy site, have it centered right in the middle of where you see the clouds fanning out close to the Mexican coast.

93LINVEST.20kts-1009mb-188N-952W

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #44 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 7:53 am

Looking at the overall pattern it is close to 19.6 north/93 or so west. I think the area close to the coast is a MLC.

Most of the convection is now over water. Also if this is a low pressure area an not a outflow area from the thunderstroms/convection then it should start wraping around it with in the next 12 hours.

The Gfs 06z holds it over this area for the next 120 hours then develops it??? Slow moving you can say :wink:

I wish Serpeper or Derek or Mw would come an say that it is just outflow that is messing me up. In not a LLC or anything else. Can't wait for recon.

PTrackerLA · #45 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 8:59 am

The outflow looks great over this system. If the convection can persist throughout the day and drift north to be more over the water we might just have something here.

KatDaddy · #46 Postby **KatDaddy** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:11 am

Still way to close to land but it does look stationary.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #47 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:12 am

This is about where tropical storm Larry formed. Really it is forming just to the southeast of where it formed

#48 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:14 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Thats what makes it interesting using the data or info you have at hand. In which appears, by what I can see by my knowledge. That a low presure appears to be forming. It could be the outflow making it look like that. But with a few more hours of visible we will have a better idea. In then when hopefully a recon gets in there we will have soild info.

I have not even looked at sat lops this am and will wait for more visibles. However, what I saw late yesterday afternoon was suggesting a mlc at a minimum which was located directly south of the coordinates suggested over land and it was not moving West. It was pretty much stationary. This suggests that the Northern part of the wave this was part of may have split and is indeed now drifting N into the BOC. Those coordiantes above are directly East of Veracruz, barely off the coast. Definitely have at least one eye on this one since it is becoming persistent if nothing else. Climatology etc. suggest that GOMers have nothing to worry about, but some strange things have happened before in this area.

jax · #49 Postby **jax** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:18 am

IMHO... call me silly... but i still have a gut feeling this is
headed to the Florida panhandle... looks like there
is mothing steering this thing right now... looks like
it'll sit and fester for a few days till something pulls
at it. We may get a name of this blob yet!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #50 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:21 am

Gfs now shows development.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/115.html

bbadon · #51 Postby **bbadon** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:25 am

Wow look at the visibles this morning. You can clearly see circulation just inland over Mexico. Lets hope it doesn't pull bout out over the water. It actually appears to be deepening over land. I know this is rare but from what I understand can happen given the right conditions.

#52 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:29 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Gfs now shows development.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/115.html

this is exactly what Don has alluded to in the tropical analysis forum-the possibility that this system could get out over the BOC and just wander around until better conditions help it develop.

jax · #53 Postby **jax** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:30 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Gfs now shows development.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 6/115.html

wow... has it down there through Tuesday...
has it at 1010 still... but again, thats 5 days
out.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #54 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:30 am

Remember systems like tropical depression 2 off 1999. If I'm remember right formed almost at the coast. So it can happen.

Website · #55 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:36 am

So... is recon still on?

Missions to BOC starting at 18:00z 6/16/05 (If Necessary)

Who is online