ABNT20 KNHC 160900
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.
A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. EVEN
THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND MAY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
$$
530am TWOAT... Recon still on... for now
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senorpepr
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mobilebay wrote:That is the exact same (word for word) TWO that was issued last night. Even the same Forecaster. I dont think recon will be going out today. JMO. I think maybe they are on cruize control at the NHC.
Ahh, give 'em a break. Working the night shift isn't too fun. Nothing new is really going on, so why write a new TWO when you can retransmit the old one?
In all honesty, I agree. I believe recon will be cancelled. They may be waiting to "officially" do it one visibile satellite images start rolling in.
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senorpepr wrote:mobilebay wrote:That is the exact same (word for word) TWO that was issued last night. Even the same Forecaster. I dont think recon will be going out today. JMO. I think maybe they are on cruize control at the NHC.
Ahh, give 'em a break. Working the night shift isn't too fun. Nothing new is really going on, so why write a new TWO when you can retransmit the old one?
In all honesty, I agree. I believe recon will be cancelled. They may be waiting to "officially" do it one visibile satellite images start rolling in.
I agree 100%. That was funny Pepr.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I'm pretty sure some times they have it on timer.
Before anyone jumps on him for saying this, I have suspected this myself. I remember when the disturbance that was to become Allison was in the Gulf in Early June 2001, the 5:30 AM TWO stated "Tropical Storm formation is not expected". Everyone on another board (GOPBI- all we had back then) was having a fit because it had become much better organized, and was clearly on the brink of being a tropical Depression. Then all of a sudden about one hour later the NHC issued a TDS, stating it was on the verge of becoming a TC.
I've had several occasions where I've suspected this.
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For the last few forecast periods nothing seemed to be moving in the tropics. The ULL between the system in the BOC and the area in the carribean further east was nearly stationary.
This morning you can see a cold front starting to drop south into the gulf and that ULL has moved east. I wonder if conditions will be favorable for something to fire up at the tail end of the front once it drops down into the GOM?
This morning you can see a cold front starting to drop south into the gulf and that ULL has moved east. I wonder if conditions will be favorable for something to fire up at the tail end of the front once it drops down into the GOM?
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