What on earth is the Gfdl is trying to do?

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

What on earth is the Gfdl is trying to do?

#1 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 16, 2005 1:31 am



000

WHXX04 KWBC 160520

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L



INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 16



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 18.9 95.0 300./ 6.0

6 18.7 94.8 127./ 2.5

12 18.2 93.0 105./18.3

18 18.3 92.9 5./ 1.1

24 18.4 92.9 0./ .8



STORM DISSIPATED AT 24 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


Take it for what its worth!!! :roll:
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mobilebay
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#2 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 16, 2005 1:36 am

Drifting east! :roll: Then North. To say the least the GFDL does not have a good handle on this Wave/Blob.
Last edited by mobilebay on Thu Jun 16, 2005 1:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 16, 2005 1:39 am

There is no other model that forecasts development. They all but this one take it into Mexico. Don't think I trust the gfdl to take it on its own.
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#4 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 16, 2005 3:30 am

I don't think there is a system their anymore. JMO.
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#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 16, 2005 3:35 am

Unless that low pressure over Mexico fades. While the convection moves north into the Bay. Then I don't expect anything at this time to come out of it.
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#6 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 16, 2005 3:41 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Unless that low pressure over Mexico fades. While the convection moves north into the Bay. Then I don't expect anything at this time to come out of it.

Yep. We are in a hurry up and wait mode! :lol:
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#7 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 16, 2005 3:43 am

The Gfs/MM5 models doe develop 92L as it is moving off to the northeast. It is centered just north of Eastern Cuba. In believe it or not is flaring up again this morning. Could see a suprize...
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#8 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 16, 2005 3:46 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The Gfs/MM5 models doe develop 92L as it is moving off to the northeast. It is centered just north of Eastern Cuba. In believe it or not is flaring up again this morning. Could see a suprize...

Slight chance in my opinion, but a chance. It will be a fish regardless. :wink:
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#9 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 16, 2005 4:10 am

I don't know if the Nam is very good with cyclones. But here it is.

0 to 18 it slowly moves it northward.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 18_m.shtml

24 to 42 hours it moves it slowly to the north. Also look at our little friend 93L doe's over the Eastern Pacific.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml

48 to 66 hours it is still moving slowly northward. While developing a closed bar at 54 hours. It seems to form a troical storm over in the Eastern Pacific out of our friend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml

With low shear at this time over it. It worth watching.
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#10 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 16, 2005 4:16 am

I will also be watching the Eastern Pacific. Its just as Important to me. 8-)
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#11 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jun 16, 2005 4:16 am

It's worth watching for the fishes. :D
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#12 Postby mobilebay » Thu Jun 16, 2005 4:38 am

Thunder44 wrote:It's worth watching for the fishes. :D

Yes it is! I love fishes. They are fun to watch. :D
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#13 Postby cyclonaut » Thu Jun 16, 2005 8:34 am

mobilebay wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:It's worth watching for the fishes. :D

Yes it is! I love fishes. They are fun to watch. :D

I got to admit it,I love them landfallers.I wish I could control their strength so they would never get passed CAT 2..None the less there is no feeling like the feeling of a hurricane closing in on you!

That's the mother of all thrill rides! :eek: 8-)

Again I would like to stress that I in no way wish any harm to anyone,the comments above are based on my fascination with hurricanes..Its a hurricane thing,you would'nt understand. :)
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#14 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Jun 16, 2005 9:42 am

It is a huge adrenaline rush!!! The problem is that it is almost impossible to stay safe!!! BTDT, with Camille and Alicia and several other lesser ones. BTW, I was in Gulf Breeze, FL for Camille, not at the center of the hurricane. Alicia came right over my house.
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#15 Postby Swimdude » Thu Jun 16, 2005 11:22 am

I do believe this states why we can't always trust the models.
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