Hurricanes Predicted to threaten East Coast

[Cookiely]

technicianonline.com / 06.15.2005 / news / Science & Tech


Hurricanes predicted to threaten East Coast
Posted: 06.15.2005
Matt Wilson
The project began two years ago based on research by Lian Xie, a professor of marine, atmospheric and earth sciences, Leonard Pietrafesa, a professor and College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences director of the Office of External Affairs and by graduate student Tingzhuang Yan.

According to Xie, the group was looking for a more accurate hurricane prediction system than what was currently offered.

"Year after year, I'm teaching tropical meteorology where students in the class say, 'Hey, why can't we tell how many are actually going to make landfall?'" Xie said. "[The current prediction models] don't tell how many go to land."

Xie said he met Yan, who had already obtained a master's degree in computer science, and found the two were a great match.

"At that time I had this idea to make a model on how many hurricanes will make it to land," Xie said. "The landfall hurricanes are really the only ones we care about."

Xie said this has been a question and idea he's had in his mind for a long time.

"If you've been looking at [hurricane tracking maps] for the past 50 or 100 years, the hurricanes are spread all over," Xie said. "It's a very crowded place if you put all the tracks together."

The group began to look at factors that cause hurricanes to form and those that affect hurricane tracking.

Yan said his role was to implement the prediction model under Xie's supervision.

"We analyzed those factors that are associated with the Atlantic hurricane activity and tracks," Yan said.

Xie overlaid the hurricane tracks and by using a statistical methodology for pattern recognition, the group looked for significant trends.

"We used that method to track models or patterns in this complex track data system, Xie said. "What we were able to do is identify the leading or the most important patterns."

Three significant patterns emerged, the most important of which was the water temperature gradient, the difference of water temperatures north and south of the equator, according to Xie.

"That allowed us to see a little bit more than other people. We were able to identify one of the key patterns that nobody else has identified in the past," Xie said.

The group soon began to identify factors that affect or are related to the top three hurricane patterns.

"For example, the presence of an El Ni–o event, with its accompanying teleconnection pattern, could be a good indicator for a less active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean," Yan said.

Using the computer model, Xie and his group predicted five to six hurricanes to form this season and of those, two to three will make landfall on the East Coast.

"What we have actually calculated is a probability," Xie said.

The group obtained their data from the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and from the El Ni–o/Southern Oscillation index from the Japan Meteorological Agency. The data is publicly available to download.

Xie hopes to improve the model and narrow the landfall regions predicted.

"Right now our first step is to see what makes landfall on the entire east coast. That's the entire East Coast," Xie said. "Our next goal is to see if we can narrow down the range as in how many are going to hit the Southeast Coast, versus the Northeast Coast."

Yan said he will identify more factors that affect hurricane formation and tracking.

"My research will head to constantly improve the model by identifying more possible climate factors that may influence hurricane track patterns," Yan said.

The tracking model announcement was made June 1 at a forum hosted by Congressman Bob Etheridge on Centennial Campus. Attended by approximately 85 people, the forum brought together state and federal government agencies and private companies, like Progress Energy.

Sally Ramey, director of college relations for PAMS, said the forum began five years ago as Etheridge's brain child. The purpose of the conference, she said, was to discuss the current and ongoing work in flood modeling.

"[The forum] got everybody together who needs to be aware," Ramey said.

Allen Riordan, an assistant professor in meteorology, earth and atmospheric sciences, said the prediction model holds potential.

"It's something that looks promising but needs to be tested, perhaps similar to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction scheme," Riordan said. "That has proven fairly well as to predicting how many storms there will be."

According to Riordan, the model may give those most affected by hurricanes Ñ insurance companies and coastal residents Ñ a good idea for the kind of hurricane season ahead of them.

"That's what people will need to use in order to plan, so if you're an insurance company or a coastal resident this has the potential [and] will give you some idea," Riordan said.

The prediction was published in a recent issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

[Brent]

WOW... shocking.

Alex, Charley, Frances, Gaston, and Jeanne were all hurricanes and all hit the East Coast(Ivan threatened early on).

[HurricaneBill]

WOW... shocking.

Charley, Frances, Gaston, and Jeanne were all hurricanes and all hit the East Coast(Ivan threatened early on).

Don't forget Alex!

[Brent]

WOW... shocking.

Charley, Frances, Gaston, and Jeanne were all hurricanes and all hit the East Coast(Ivan threatened early on).

Don't forget Alex!

The storms not named Charley/Frances/Ivan/Jeanne have pretty much been forgotten.

[dhweather]

WOW... shocking.

Charley, Frances, Gaston, and Jeanne were all hurricanes and all hit the East Coast(Ivan threatened early on).

Don't forget Alex!

The storms not named Charley/Frances/Ivan/Jeanne have pretty much been forgotten.

The others are trivial compared to the "fab four"

[HurricaneBill]

The others are trivial compared to the "fab four"

That's a clever nickname for them.

[Brent]

WOW... shocking.

Charley, Frances, Gaston, and Jeanne were all hurricanes and all hit the East Coast(Ivan threatened early on).

Don't forget Alex!

The storms not named Charley/Frances/Ivan/Jeanne have pretty much been forgotten.

The others are trivial compared to the "fab four"

The foursome???

Two guys and two girls???



*gets mind out of gutter*