MAJOR OUTBREAK LOOKING MORE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND,

[WXBUFFJIM]

A major severe weather outbreak is expected to unfold later this weekend starting laer tomorrow in the plains and across the midwest on Sunday. A huge tornado outbreak is definitely likely in this situation. In fact the situation may look so intense and deadly that Jim Cantore and TWC may report live on the field during this outbreak. When you know that's going to happen, you know this is a dangerous and potentially very deadly outbreak of severe storms we're talking about here.

On Saturday, expect a warm front to slowly move north into northern Oklahoma and into northern Arkansas and Kansas. Along and ahead of the warm front, strong southwest winds aloft will combine with southeast winds at the surface. A disturbance moving in from the west will create the dynamics and instability needed for explosive thunderstorm development later in the day Saturday. Hail golfball size or larger and tornadoes are likely in northern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and into east central Kansas later Saturday. Parts of Nebraska and Iowa are threatened Saturday night with hail and tornadoes. By Sunday, everything comes together for a major tornado outbreak in the midwest from Madison down through Des Moines, the quad cities, Chicago, St Louis, and Little Rock. Wind gusts 80 mph, hail baseball size or larger and the possibility for violent tornadoes is in the cards Sunday for this area of the midwest. A powerful jet stream shooting in from the southwest will combine with rich moisture and southernly surface winds. So widespread supercells in the above mentioned areas for Sunday including a widespread outbreak of wind, hail, and possibly violent tornadoes.

Stay tuned for further updates.

Jim

[rainstorm]

keep us updated, this sounds serious!!

[ColdFront77]

There were a half dozen severe weather watches (Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches) out Friday evening from Georgia to Texas.

This potential outbreak sounds worse than yesterday evening! :o

[wx247]

Our local HWO spells it out. :o

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS

HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING

DISCUSSION:

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS
TODAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA AS THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTERACTS WITH A
WARM FRONT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A LARGE
COMPLEX...TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FLOODING OF LOW-WATER
CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE...AS THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A VERY DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
LATEST DATA INDICATES CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI OZARKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR
WESTERN MISSOURI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN TRACK OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OZARKS REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

PERSONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD KEEP CLOSE TO A RELIABLE SOURCE
OF WEATHER INFORMATION...AS NUMEROUS WEATHER WARNINGS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 10 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF