Missions to BOC starting at 18:00z 6/16/05 (If Necessary)

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cycloneye
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Missions to BOC starting at 18:00z 6/16/05 (If Necessary)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:52 am

975
NOUS42 KNHC 151430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 15 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-019

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 16/1800Z A. 17/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 16/1445Z C. 17/0215Z
D. 19.0N 94.5W D. 19.0N 94.5W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2300Z E. 17/0500Z TO 17/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

Hmmmm this took me be surprise as I thought it was going to Mexico but I guess it will hang at BOC.The recon missions start tommorow afternoon at 18:00z.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:41 am, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby Guest » Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:54 am

Bravo! Bravo!, get the nachos ready and the beer.
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#3 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:59 am

I knew the area looked suspect yesterday and looks like the NHC feels the same now :wink: .
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:03 am

PTrackerLA wrote:I knew the area looked suspect yesterday and looks like the NHC feels the same now :wink: .


Dont be surprised if we see 93L invest later today or tonight.
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#5 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:05 am

Folks I was the only one that mentioned the area (BOC) this morning. Hey was everyone sleeping on the job?
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#6 Postby chris_fit » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:06 am

I really don't see the need for Recon to go in there. Half of it is over land, and moving west. Waste of tax money IMHO.
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#7 Postby KatDaddy » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:08 am

Suprised Reconn is going out with the tropical wave moving onshore. It has continued westward and should mostly onshore by the time Reconn takes off. Unless something surprising occurs I think the flight will be removed from the schedule.
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#8 Postby TS Zack » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:08 am

Visible looks good for an invest. The main energy has pushed into Mexico but we are seeing alot more convection firing further North over open waters.

We all know how these BOC storms can be. Maybe the NHC isn't taking any chances.
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#9 Postby chadtm80 » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:13 am

Waste of Money.. I agree.. 20 bucks says it gets canceled
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#10 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:13 am

WHAT??? Is it not going to go inland or not? NHC would not be scheduling recon tomorrow if they believed that.
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:14 am

They can have a initial scedule but then they can cancel those missions.
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#12 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:16 am

cycloneye wrote:They can have a initial scedule but then they can cancel those missions.


But if it's expected to move inland, why go??? The subsquent flights is fishy to me too. They must be thinking it'll move north or just sit there for days.
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#13 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:18 am

chadtm80 wrote:Waste of Money.. I agree.. 20 bucks says it gets canceled


Are you paying in cash or check? :lol:
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#14 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:18 am

Lets wait for the 11:30 am EDT TWO for more information.
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#15 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:18 am

Brent wrote:
cycloneye wrote:They can have a initial scedule but then they can cancel those missions.


But if it's expected to move inland, why go??? The subsquent flights is fishy to me too. They must be thinking it'll move north or just sit there for days.



Good point Brent.
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:19 am

Starting tommorow gives them the chance to look at the area from today with surface observations and then determine if a mission is needed.
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#17 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:21 am

Sound familiar???

Image
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#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:25 am

An area of disturbed weather continues over the Bay of Campeche and
adjacent land areas in association with a tropical wave that is
moving very slowly westward. Surface pressures have not been
falling with this system... and tropical cyclone development is
unlikely due to its close proximity to land. However... upper
level winds are favorable for development... and an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will be available to investigate
the area on Thursday... if necessary. Periods of locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds may occur during the next day or two over
portions of southeastern Mexico.


If necessary they would go tommorow.
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:28 am

Is kind of contradicting since development is unlikely because the system really close to land and pressures are not falling in the area, but they are just scheduling a RECON mission just because the area is favorable for development.

:?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?: :?:
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:35 am

Image

VERACRUZ: 1012 mb

POZA RICA: 1013 mb

We can see that the pressures in the area are relatively high, and they have been increasing in the last hours.
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