10:30 EDT TWO, DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE LOW AT BEST

[HURAKAN]

Weather Outlook


Statement as of 10:30 PM EDT on June 14, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An upper-level low interacting with a broad surface trough is
producing a large area of cloudiness and showers over the
north-central Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas. Upper-level
winds remain only marginally favorable and development of this
system...if any...should be slow to occur as it moves northward at
5 to 10 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
possible across portions of Jamaica...Hispaniola...and eastern Cuba
tonight...and then gradually spread northward into the southeastern
Bahamas and the turks and caicos during the day Wednesday.

A westward-moving tropical wave is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms over the southern Bay of Campeche. While tropical
cyclone development is not expected due to the close proximity to
land...brief periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds may
occur over the Bay of Campeche and across portions of southeastern
Mexico as the system moves slowly inland tonight and Wednesday.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.

Forecaster Stewart

[senorpepr]

Looks like no recon tomorrow either. (Not really a surprise.) It's interesting that they mentioned the Campeche convection.

Thanks for passing that along, Sandy.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like no recon tomorrow either. (Not really a surprise.) It's interesting that they mentioned the Campeche convection.

Thanks for passing that along, Sandy.

You Welcome, by the way, there is no prossibility of the Campeche system developing in the EPAC, mainly because of it is at a very high latitute for developmemnt in the EPAC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok In all seriousness this area is getting sheared to death. In development may happen once moving northeastward with the shear. But why no discussion of the MLC on the northwest coast of Jamaica?


Still not given up all hope as of yet

[hurricanefreak1988]

Remember, "development, if any, will be slow to occur" was used to describe Arlene, too. Just saying.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take look at the 18z gfs it develops it as it moving with the shear.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

[senorpepr]

Remember, "development, if any, will be slow to occur" was used to describe Arlene, too. Just saying.

For what it's worth, "development, if any, will be slow to occur" has been used numerous times of areas that have gone 'poof.'

[senorpepr]

You Welcome, by the way, there is no prossibility of the Campeche system developing in the EPAC, mainly because of it is at a very high latitute for developmemnt in the EPAC.

Right. No only the high latitude would put it at a disadvantage, but also the terrain. The mountains on the southern end of the Sierra Madre Oriental ranges from 15,000 to 19,000 feet. That would rip apart the blob like a football couch does his players during summer camp.

[Swimdude]

How utterly unsatisfying would it be if we'd been tracking a blob that never formed for a nice, solid week? Development is looking less and less likely. And it's drifting North. Wouldn't North include, oh, going over land?

[Radar]

IT looks like Arlene was just a tease and the real waiting game has finally begun!

[mobilebay]

IT looks like Arlene was just a tease and the real waiting game has finally begun!

Yes! We did get a stiff breeze here in Mobile though! LOL! I've seen afternoon thunderstorms that where more exciting. However, we did receive almost 5 inches of rain.