Update of Models for 92L=All Away from US East Coast

[cycloneye]

They updated the tracks this evening and they are clustered going out to sea after the system moves thru the Central Bahamas as the upper flow goes that way to the NE.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050614 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050614 1800 050615 0600 050615 1800 050616 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 78.2W 19.4N 78.7W 21.0N 79.3W 22.6N 79.4W
BAMM 18.0N 78.2W 19.2N 79.1W 20.5N 79.7W 21.7N 79.9W
A98E 18.0N 78.2W 19.6N 78.7W 20.7N 78.9W 22.0N 78.0W
LBAR 18.0N 78.2W 19.7N 78.6W 21.3N 78.9W 22.9N 78.3W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050616 1800 050617 1800 050618 1800 050619 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.2N 78.4W 28.8N 71.9W 35.6N 63.4W 43.3N 53.5W
BAMM 23.1N 79.2W 26.4N 74.8W 30.8N 66.9W 35.9N 59.4W
A98E 22.9N 77.2W 24.7N 74.7W 28.1N 70.5W 34.3N 62.5W
LBAR 24.4N 76.8W 27.6N 71.9W 32.5N 66.3W 37.3N 58.7W
SHIP 37KTS 42KTS 41KTS 35KTS
DSHP 34KTS 38KTS 38KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 76.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Zadok]

I'm glad to see that they are keeping on their toes.

[senorpepr]

OH MY GOODNESS -- LOOK AT THAT XTRAP MODEL! IT'S COMING RIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST!!!



Just kidding, of course. (For those who are unfamiliar with "XTRAP", it's nothing more than the current position and movement extrapolated over time. There is no science to it whatsoever.)

[cycloneye]

OH MY GOODNESS -- LOOK AT THAT XTRAP MODEL! IT'S COMING RIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST!!!



Just kidding, of course. (For those who are unfamiliar with "XTRAP", it's nothing more than the current position and movement extrapolated over time. There is no science to it whatsoever.)

Yes Mike that is why I didn't mention it.

[senorpepr]

OH MY GOODNESS -- LOOK AT THAT XTRAP MODEL! IT'S COMING RIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST!!!



Just kidding, of course. (For those who are unfamiliar with "XTRAP", it's nothing more than the current position and movement extrapolated over time. There is no science to it whatsoever.)

Yes Mike that is why I didn't mention it.

For some reason as soon as I saw that map, I was reminded of last year when people would get concerned over the extrapolated track. I thought I'd take this opportunity to remind/inform those who didn't know what it was all about.

[cycloneye]

Good that you did that to let know many new members that haved comed to the forum recently what is that all about.

[Andrew92]

Not to mention, if the XTRAP verified, I could very well get another unwelcome visit from the remnants of a storm!

Then I would need to get the door emoticon out again.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

THE SE BAHAMAS ARE LIKELY TO GET RATHER WET AS
DEEP MOISTURE AND A WEAK LOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN MOVES NORTHWARD
AND ENCOUNTERS A FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS. SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NE
OF THE BAHAMAS AS RIDGING GROWS IN THE AREA.

The above is an extract from the 8:05 PM discussion from TPC from forecaster Blake.By that time whatever it does it will be a fish system moving NE out to sea.

[Rainband]

Like jeanne> I agree the odds are against anything coming close to the US but never say never when it comes to the tropics.