Latest POAMA model= less chance of El Nino

[cycloneye]

Outlook for: Jun
2005 Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006
Mean temperature -0.15 0.07 0.36 0.45 0.44 0.40 0.29 0.25
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 4.2% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2%
Model neutral frequency 95.8% 90.5% 84.0% 76.1% 70.8% 79.8% 82.6% 91.9%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.0% 3.8% 16.0% 23.9% 29.2% 20.2% 17.2% 5.9%


Dang!!! Now the % of warm frequency is down to the 20.s down from the 60% that it had a few days ago and Mark highlighted in blue color at the first post in this thread.

[dhweather]

I think it's safe to say that we won't have El Nino this year

[hurricanetrack]

Well, the stage is set- bring on the hurricanes. I hope you all are ready! I think the Islands will be hit this year much like 1995. Good luck....

[cycloneye]

Well, the stage is set- bring on the hurricanes. I hope you all are ready! I think the Islands will be hit this year much like 1995. Good luck....

Thank you Mark.We will need plenty of luck this season and see if the CV systems go fishing away from the islands.

[cycloneye]

Outlook for: Jun
2005 Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006
Mean temperature -0.20 -0.04 0.26 0.39 0.37 0.34 0.25 0.23
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 4.2% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.9%
Model neutral frequency 95.8% 92.4% 87.3% 79.7% 75.7% 83.1% 85.9% 92.8%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.0% 1.9% 12.7% 20.3% 24.3% 16.9% 13.9% 5.3%


The aussies continue to back down on el nino.On the latest update on may 29th they now decrease the chance of having el nino to 24.3% by october and that is the most highest % they have on warm ENSO.They were in the 60,s % at mid may.

[dhweather]

Wow, they have really backed off on their numbers for an El Nino year.

[cycloneye]

Outlook for: Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006
Mean temperature -0.23 0.08 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.13 0.11
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.8%
Model neutral frequency 90.5% 93.3% 83.8% 81.7% 86.4% 87.6% 91.4%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.5% 6.7% 16.2% 18.3% 13.6% 12.2% 4.9%


More confirmation of no el nino during the rest of 2005 as the latest update of the aussies POAMA model shows above in the warm frequency line which now the highest % for having el nino is 18.3% and that is in october.And the cool frequency line or La Nina for the first time goes up to 3.8%.That maximun % for el nino was around 60% in early may and the aussies were very consistant about forecasting el nino but they haved backed down bigtime.

[cycloneye]

Outlook for: Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006
Mean temperature -0.53 -0.23 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.08 -0.11
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 25.7% 6.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.7%
Model neutral frequency 74.3% 92.7% 91.0% 94.3% 93.7% 97.2% 95.5%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.0% 0.6% 6.7% 5.7% 6.3% 2.6% 0.8%


Mark when you started this thread el nino had around 60% chance highlighted in blue at the first post of thread. But look now at that same line of model warm frequency less than 10% of having el nino for the rest of 2005.

[The Big Dog]

And when you look at the more recent runs, almost all of them are on the cool side of the mean. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see them predict cool conditions in the coming months. Should we start questioning the credibility of this model?

[cycloneye]

Outlook for: Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006
Mean temperature -0.60 -0.30 -0.09 -0.10 -0.09 -0.14 -0.16
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 29.0% 7.3% 5.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.2% 3.7%
Model neutral frequency 71.0% 92.0% 91.4% 93.3% 96.6% 97.2% 96.3%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.0% 0.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0%


Wow almost 0% chance now about having el nino for the rest of 2005 as the model warm frequency line the most it goes is to 3.3%.

[Scorpion]

Wow, amazing how things have changed.

[EarthStormFire]

El Nino tends to cause fewer Atlantic Hurricanes, while La Nina tends to cause more Atlantic Hurricane. Both have the opposite effect on the Pacific. I rather have a La Nina year than a normal or El Nino year since it makes the Atlantic Hurricane season more interesting.

[cycloneye]

Outlook for: Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006 Feb
2006
Mean temperature -0.66 -0.37 -0.14 -0.14 -0.14 -0.17 -0.17 -0.35
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 34.5% 11.0% 5.2% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Model neutral frequency 65.5% 89.0% 94.8% 96.7% 99.9% 100.0% 98.0% 100.0%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


Mark started this thread with a 60% chance of el nino by this aussie model POAMA but now look at the model warm frequency line 0.0%.However they dont raise la nina chances as they stay with neutral ENSO until febuary 2006.