Should Recon be reactivated....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They done it for Arlene. In they only found 19 knots in a undefined Cirualtion. In did not even find a warm core at first. In then we got this with yes a weak broad cirualtion northwest of Jamaica. In with most of its rain on the eastern quad. Which a system in last May killed thousands. This system could be the most deadiest system this year!!!

[Brent]

May I ask what a recon flight is going to do to save lives in Hispaniola?

Good point. Heck... Recon flights likely didn't save lives in Hispanola when Georges came over. Even a tropical WAVE last year killed thousands.

[vbhoutex]

They done it for Arlene. In they only found 19 knots in a undefined Cirualtion. In did not even find a warm core at first. In then we got this with yes a weak broad cirualtion northwest of Jamaica. In with most of its rain on the eastern quad. Which a system in last May killed thousands. This system could be the most deadiest system this year!!!

Matt, this is just pure unsupported speculation on your part. It could be said about all the systems that form or don't form this year. It certainly is not a reason to spend taxpayers money for recon if the information can be gathered from other sources.

[Brent]

This system could be the most deadiest system this year!!!

The point is??? Winter storms are deadly, but they don't fly recons in. Storms that cause historic flooding are deadly, but they don't send recon in. If there's no LLC, it's not a named storm. Period. It doesn't matter if it produces Noah's Ark type flooding, it's doesn't need a recon to tell you that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its all my falt. This could very will turn out to be bad. I understand that there is other ways like visible/buoys to see things.


I was looking at the Obs out of Jamaica in this area of low pressure might be above the surface. In which case it is MLC. Which last may system shown a clearly defined LLC on quickscats...

Northwest of Jamaica.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[senorpepr]

May I ask what a recon flight is going to do to save lives in Hispaniola?

Exactly. That's the key. Recon doesn't particularly save lives, especially in this type of an event where mudslides are the big issue. Recon provides data such as center position and intensity as well as system structure, etc. This data is to provide an increase in the information database that the models feed off of. Essentially, it provides a better forecast track in the long term. All the information that recon can provide won't make a difference when it comes to a mudslide event.

The fact of the matter here is that a simple recon mission won't save a live in this case. Anybody with some meteorological background can already tell that this will be a potentially hazardous event. The data we already receive is providing us plenty of information in that case.

Winter storms are deadly, but they don't fly recons in. Storms that cause historic flooding are deadly, but they don't send recon in.

Actually, when the 53rd WRS isn't doing their tropical mission in the summer, they are doing winter recon. Check out this website: http://www.hurricanehunters.com/winter.htm

They done it for Arlene. In they only found 19 knots in a undefined Cirualtion. In did not even find a warm core at first. In then we got this with yes a weak broad cirualtion northwest of Jamaica. In with most of its rain on the eastern quad. Which a system in last May killed thousands. This system could be the most deadiest system this year!!!

First, there was question that Arlene did or did not have a LLCC. 92L doesn't have the question. There isn't one at this time. Second, Arlene had a potentially dangerous future. A fairly open GOM with the potential to develop into a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. 92L doesn't at this time. It would develop too much before it is cut up in the Greater Antilles. Yes, this will be a mudslide producer, but as I said before, we don't need recon to tell us that. Third, you can't send recon for a storm that "might" be the deadiest system of the year. We can't tell that. If you go off of that mind-set, we would be doing recon on very cluster of thunderstorms. That beings us that to the budget. We don't need to waste money on every little storm. Furthermore, we don't need to send troops (yes, the 53rd WRS are made of men and women that wear the same uniform and job badge that I wear) out to do recon for every little storm. That drains a person. Remember, these people have families. Everytime they are out to "recon" some little thunderstorm, we're pulling them away from the normal lives. We shouldn't do that when it's not needed.

[Brent]

They done it for Arlene. In they only found 19 knots in a undefined Cirualtion. In did not even find a warm core at first. In then we got this with yes a weak broad cirualtion northwest of Jamaica. In with most of its rain on the eastern quad. Which a system in last May killed thousands. This system could be the most deadiest system this year!!!

Arlene almost became a hurricane despite strong shear and dry air that never went away. Had those two things not been in place, Arlene would have likely been a significant hurricane(at least at sometime in it's life), this is a MUCH different situation.

[Brent]

Actually, when the 53rd WRS isn't doing their tropical mission in the summer, they are doing winter recon. Check out this website: http://www.hurricanehunters.com/winter.htm

That's interesting. I always wondered what those pilots did during the off-season.

[rtd2]

May I ask what a recon flight is going to do to save lives in Hispaniola?

Exactly. That's the key. Recon doesn't particularly save lives, especially in this type of an event where mudslides are the big issue. Recon provides data such as center position and intensity as well as system structure, etc. This data is to provide an increase in the information database that the models feed off of. Essentially, it provides a better forecast track in the long term. All the information that recon can provide won't make a difference when it comes to a mudslide event.

The fact of the matter here is that a simple recon mission won't save a live in this case. Anybody with some meteorological background can already tell that this will be a potentially hazardous event. The data we already receive is providing us plenty of information in that case.

Winter storms are deadly, but they don't fly recons in. Storms that cause historic flooding are deadly, but they don't send recon in.

Actually, when the 53rd WRS isn't doing their tropical mission in the summer, they are doing winter recon. Check out this website: http://www.hurricanehunters.com/winter.htm

They done it for Arlene. In they only found 19 knots in a undefined Cirualtion. In did not even find a warm core at first. In then we got this with yes a weak broad cirualtion northwest of Jamaica. In with most of its rain on the eastern quad. Which a system in last May killed thousands. This system could be the most deadiest system this year!!!

They also fly T-storms and super cells in the Mid-west during the off season to Keep Pilot and Plane certified....To date I dont think the Newer C130J's are 'Cane certified...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe that Arlene was almost a hurricane. But when the first few recons it was a very very weak depression.

Take a look at just northwest of Jamaica. Because if anythings going to form that would be where to watch.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html



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