Should Recon be reactivated....

[dixiebreeze]

in the Caribbean? The Invest area is sure looking good this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[chadtm80]

No.. MAYBE tomorrow if it shows signs of development.. Convection doesn't mean a thing if there is no organization.. If they sent recon every time there was a burst of convection in the Atlantic they would never be able to land

[cycloneye]

The NHC folks are looking at bouy data,ship observations and land obs to have plenty of data to show if there is a LLC out there.There is evidence of no LLC at this time so no need for a mission unless the surface data says otherwise.Deep convection does not tell the whole picture as other factors such as upper shear is the most important one.

[Scorpion]

It does look very ominous, much better than this morning. Hopefully it can get its act together soon.

[southerngale]

It does look nice though.

[cyclonaut]

I'd say we are close to the issuance of a "Special Tropical Disturbance Statement"!

This this is going to dump an awful lot of rain in Jamaica & especially in Haiti & DR.

[Brent]

They've got buoy data... it would show a surface circulation if one existed. Yes, it's going to dump a ton of rain on Jamaica/Hispanola/Eastern Cuba, but it's not a tropical depression... yet anyway. The effects will be the same regardless.

[Thunder44]

Since when did everyone become so concerned about our money to send these planes out there? If the plane went there and didn't find a tropical cyclone, that means our money has been wasted? Isn't that the point of an invest to answer these questions?

Of course we all assuming that buoy data is accurate. I mean there's no human is out there to check if it's working properly. And it's only the based on data from that one single buoy out there why the plane was cancelled. I've been watching data from that buoy and it has pretty much wind directions coming from all directions all day. It now shows winds now coming from the south.

I wonder if costs the government less to put buoys out there, then fly planes out there.

[rtd2]

They've got buoy data... it would show a surface circulation if one existed. Yes, it's going to dump a ton of rain on Jamaica/Hispanola/Eastern Cuba, but it's not a tropical depression... yet anyway. The effects will be the same regardless.

Agreed but it s the best looking NOTHING I've seen in a while...I agree though a Mission now is not needed...This storm is still getting hit with shear but has resisted quite well...Looks like its been sitting in the same place now for 2 days!

[gkrangers]

Theres no need to send recon until there are indications of a LLC...like others have said.

The WC-130 burns a ton of fuel, and fuel is expensive...lets save it for the inevitable monster storms we will likely see at some point this summer or fall..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it would help save one persons life then its worth the money. Like Last May.


I think I see a low over Jamaica on the western side of this. Which means that it is like Arlene a very lopsided but wet system.

What can you expect of this.
Landslides
Heavy rain
Winds of 20 to 30 mph

Its not a depression yet but if that cirualtion tightens up over night. Then you know just how fast these things can go from nothing to your wildest dreams. Reason I say that it the upper low is moving westward. In 10 knot decrease over the last few hours.

I don't think it will develop into a strong system but there is a off hand chance.

[senorpepr]

Since when did everyone become so concerned about our money to send these planes out there? If the plane went there and didn't find a tropical cyclone, that means our money has been wasted? Isn't that the point of an invest to answer these questions?

Of course we all assuming that buoy data is accurate. I mean there's no human is out there to check if it's working properly. And it's only the based on data from that one single buoy out there why the plane was cancelled. I've been watching data from that buoy and it has pretty much wind directions coming from all directions all day. It now shows winds now coming from the south.

I wonder if costs the government less to put buoys out there, then fly planes out there.

Okay, lets put it this way. Why send a recon crew to investigate something that obviously does not have a LLCC? The cost of a recon mission, although I don't know the exact figure, is somewhat less than the new buoy. Of course, that's factoring in food and water for the crew, fuel, any additional pay the crew receives (remember these are reservists. They are paid by when they work, if I'm not mistaken) plus all the met equipment (such as dropsondes) that are dropped into the water below. (Those can't be replaced) Also, remember that all this money comes from a budget. All these "wasteful" recon trips add up over time. Now put yourself in the flight suit of the recon crew. Do you enjoy putting in 12 hour days at work? How about a 12 hour day in a bumpy, noisy, somewhat unconfortable WC-130? You can't "go out and walk a bit" during your lunch break. For the smokers, there are no smoke breaks. It's pretty much non-stop work (although the work load varies) for the 12 hours. Now, is it fun to work 12 hours to investigate a system you know has no LLCC? Of course not. That's like making someone at Wal-Mart stock shelves for 12 hours, just to have them move everything elsewhere. It's pointless. So was the possible mission today. All the satellite, land, ship, and buoy observations didn't support a LLCC. It wasn't even questionable. So there was no reason in sending the 53rd WRS out.

[senorpepr]

If it would help save one persons life then its worth the money. Like Last May.

I agree, the price of one's live is priceless, but you don't need a recon mission to save that life. The planned mission today was not going to provide any additional information than that the meteorological community already knows. They don't need a recon crew to tell them this will produce heavy rains and possibly mudslides. They have satellite and ship, buoy, and land observations to tell them that. They have there own common sense to tell them that.

Like last May, they didn't have to send a recon crew out to know that this will produce mudslides. There's no difference between a strong tropical wave producing heavy rains and gusty winds than a number tropical depression or named tropical storm that is producing the same amount of precip and the same amount of winds.

[chadtm80]

Thank you Mike.. I was going to reply but no need to now..

[Thunder44]

Since when did everyone become so concerned about our money to send these planes out there? If the plane went there and didn't find a tropical cyclone, that means our money has been wasted? Isn't that the point of an invest to answer these questions?

Of course we all assuming that buoy data is accurate. I mean there's no human is out there to check if it's working properly. And it's only the based on data from that one single buoy out there why the plane was cancelled. I've been watching data from that buoy and it has pretty much wind directions coming from all directions all day. It now shows winds now coming from the south.

I wonder if costs the government less to put buoys out there, then fly planes out there.

Okay, lets put it this way. Why send a recon crew to investigate something that obviously does not have a LLCC? The cost of a recon mission, although I don't know the exact figure, is somewhat less than the new buoy. Of course, that's factoring in food and water for the crew, fuel, any additional pay the crew receives (remember these are reservists. They are paid by when they work, if I'm not mistaken) plus all the met equipment (such as dropsondes) that are dropped into the water below. (Those can't be replaced) Also, remember that all this money comes from a budget. All these "wasteful" recon trips add up over time. Now put yourself in the flight suit of the recon crew. Do you enjoy putting in 12 hour days at work? How about a 12 hour day in a bumpy, noisy, somewhat unconfortable WC-130? You can't "go out and walk a bit" during your lunch break. For the smokers, there are no smoke breaks. It's pretty much non-stop work (although the work load varies) for the 12 hours. Now, is it fun to work 12 hours to investigate a system you know has no LLCC? Of course not. That's like making someone at Wal-Mart stock shelves for 12 hours, just to have them move everything elsewhere. It's pointless. So was the possible mission today. All the satellite, land, ship, and buoy observations didn't support a LLCC. It wasn't even questionable. So there was no reason in sending the 53rd WRS out.

Alright I see your point.

[senorpepr]

Although point I forgot to mention piggybacks on the budget issue. Remember, the military only allows them so much money to work off of each year. (...and trust me, hurricane recon isn't a top priority in the budget department. We have troops at war...) So for each time we send recon out to investigate a group of thunderstorms that we know doesn't have a LLCC, the government just wasted a large some of money. (Each trip would roughly cost the average person about 7-10 years worth of salary.) Imagine the millions of dollars the govenment spent on the ten missions to fly in Arlene. If the government wastes money flying into worthless invests, the money will run out sooner.

So now I pose the question, would you rather recon skip flying into a group of thunderstorms today or would you rather have recon NOT be able to fly into a major hurricane threatening land in October because of overspending. As Matt pointed out earlier, "if it would help save one persons life then its worth the money." Well, I think the lives that would be lost in 92L are MUCH lower than what they would be with an approaching major hurricane in a few months. Some food for thought...

[wxman57]

I think I see a low over Jamaica on the western side of this. Which means that it is like Arlene a very lopsided but wet system.

I see the same thing just WNW of Jamaica. Broad LLC forming in the ship/buoy/land observations there. You can see it on visible imagery, too. Somewhere around 18.8N/78.2W. No convection there, just low-level cumulus.

[Swimdude]

The shear may be decreasing, and the convection might be flaring, but it doesn't yet seem necessary to send out a plane... I recall reading the topic on hurricane Camille and how quickly it became a cat. 5 with 190 mph winds. That's rare enough as it is. And even if this thing dips in pressure and quickly forms some circulation, a Recon mission can be scheduled immediately if necessary.

What we need here is some patience.

[Thunder44]

Although point I forgot to mention piggybacks on the budget issue. Remember, the military only allows them so much money to work off of each year. (...and trust me, hurricane recon isn't a top priority in the budget department. We have troops at war...) So for each time we send recon out to investigate a group of thunderstorms that we know doesn't have a LLCC, the government just wasted a large some of money. (Each trip would roughly cost the average person about 7-10 years worth of salary.) Imagine the millions of dollars the govenment spent on the ten missions to fly in Arlene. If the government wastes money flying into worthless invests, the money will run out sooner.

So now I pose the question, would you rather recon skip flying into a group of thunderstorms today or would you rather have recon NOT be able to fly into a major hurricane threatening land in October because of overspending. As Matt pointed out earlier, "if it would help save one persons life then its worth the money." Well, I think the lives that would be lost in 92L are MUCH lower than what they would be with an approaching major hurricane in a few months. Some food for thought...

We already waste a ton of money on the war in Iraq, so why can't we waste some money of more recon flights? It seems that our government has a budget for everything except when it wants to go to war with countries that is little threat to us. But that's getting into politics now.

Of course I would rather have a plane sent into a major hurricane then a group of thunderstorms. But 92L doesn't need to be a tropical cyclone to cause thousands of deaths in Hispanola, because of all the flooding and mudslides can occur from the torrential rains that fall. In fact, you probably would see more deaths from system like that there, then a major hurricane hitting the USA.

[gkrangers]

May I ask what a recon flight is going to do to save lives in Hispaniola?