Watching the BOC

[tailgater]

A nice area of T-storms developing in the BOC has caught my my eye this morning, Do yall think it has a chance, dry air is retreating and could start moving NW

[Stormcenter]

Isn't that the tail end of the tropical wave moving wnw across the GOM?

[tw861]

You beat me to it. I was looking at:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

And it almost looks like some sort of spin around 20.5 /93.0 or so. A few more daylight pictures will help. Whatever is there appears to be moving off to the west pretty fast.

[tailgater]

Yeah the more I look at it, I doubt it will have time to develop before it reaches the coast unless a trough can pick it up.

[corpusbreeze]

Saw a small spin of the west coast of the Yucatan yesterday, but hardly any convection. Later it exploded. Local weather here in Corpus are keeping an eye on this for the potential for some heavy rain. I think the fsu model developed a llc in the BOC for a breif period. But that was yesterday. I just woke up and have not looked at any models yet.

[KatDaddy]

Its the N end of westward moving tropical wave. No threat for any type of development as the thunderstorms move into Mexico

[tailgater]

Its the N end of westward moving tropical wave. No threat for any type of development as the thunderstorms move into Mexico

The GFS shows a weak high over southern Mexico that could block it's westward progress and there's a frontal system dropping down in the northern gulf so I'm gonna watch it pretty close since it's right here in our back yard and in a CFA.
Happy Hunting

[PTrackerLA]

It does look somewhat interesting down there and there are some hints of "twisting" but this sytem will run out of time as it crashes into Mexico unless something drastic changes. Good eye spotting this because this is where we need to watch development this time of year.

[tw861]

From Brownsville AFD earlier today:

THE RELATIVELY BENIGN BUT A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE IN THIS FORECAST ITERATION FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE GOING ON OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND UPSTREAM. H5
RIDGING FROM EAST TO WEST WILL REMAIN DOMINANT FOR LOCAL WEATHER.
ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS AND CONVECTION WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE. THE INHERITED FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY FROM THE EASTERLY WAVE SPARKS CONVECTION IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH ON ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL TO KEEP A 20% CHANCE
IN OVER THE WATERS AND COASTAL LAND AREAS.

[tailgater]

VVVery intersting

[Stormcenter]

VVVery intersting

I agree, VVVERY interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Swimdude]

Eh, that's going to crash land before anything happens.

[loon]

It does appear that it will have a hard time staying out of Mexico...

we shall see...

cheers
loon

[Johnny]

Do any mets on here have a take on this?

[senorpepr]

I've been kinda glancing at that direction for a little while now and I wouldn't expect any sort of development from this, whatsoever. Several things are working against it, land being number one.

[PTrackerLA]

I will say this it has become more interesting by the hours. Almost looks like an LLC might be trying to form under the ball of convection and it's eastward movement has slowed. However with this being so close to land/Mexico I wouldn't expect much to come from it but I'll be watching regardless .

[LaBreeze]

Whatever the case, as the old saying goes, "You never turn your back to the water."

[vbhoutex]

I don't see any indication that there is an LLC trying to form under the convection. If you look closely you can see the lower level clouds moving N. I think what is making it look like there is something forming is the way the shear is taking the upper clouds and turning them E and then SE.

I'm not saying that nothing can come of this, but right now I do not expect anything from it. If it stays out over the water and/or starts a more NW or N movement then I will be glued to it!!

[TS Zack]

It should move right into Mexico. A high to its North will block it from moving North for the next day. If a piece of energy can sit down there then we may have a problem when the trough begins to pull it Northward later in the week.

[Stormcenter]

I will say this it has become more interesting by the hours. Almost looks like an LLC might be trying to form under the ball of convection and it's eastward movement has slowed. However with this being so close to land/Mexico I wouldn't expect much to come from it but I'll be watching regardless .

PCtrackerLA you are correct in reference to all of your observations.