RECON CANCELLED

[drezee]

035
NOUS42 KNHC 141330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 14 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-018

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST SCHEDULED FOR 14/2000Z IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/1100Z.

[jabber]

I guess the NHC is not so bullish on the system anymore...

[Thunder44]

They cancelled at 7am, I think that was too early. They must not think it will develop anymore, since no other flights are scheduled.

[chadtm80]

There is just no need to go out right now.. That dosent mean there not still interested in it.. I can assure you they are.

[Brent]

I think it's mainly because it's clear there's not an LLC, it's involved with a trough(negative) and it looks worse than it did when they scheduled the flight.

[Thunder44]

There is just no need to go out right now.. That dosent mean there not still interested in it.. I can assure you they are.

Usually what I would expect, when they cancel the flight for the current day, they would schedule one for the next day, if they still believed that it had serious chance of developing, but just not today. Not to say they aren't interested in it all. We'll just have to wait to see what they say about in the next TWO.

[dixiebreeze]

The flight will soon be reinstated, considering how the system has burst this morning.

[Derek Ortt]

that was a bizzare cancellation, unless surface pressures have started to rise in the area

[Thunder44]

Here's your answer Derek:

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 14, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Cloudiness and showers continue over the central Caribbean Sea in
association with a broad surface trough of low pressure. Data from
recently installed NOAA buoy 42058 indicate that while surface
pressures remain low in the area...there are no signs of a surface
circulation. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission into the
system today has been cancelled based on this information. Upper
level winds remain unfavorable and development of this system...if
any...should be slow to occur.
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday.
Forecaster Knabb/Franklin

So thanks to buoy 42058 we don't need to waste taxpayers money on a flight down there, or in the next couple days. By the way, Buoy 42058 is now showing rising pressure but the winds have turned to North and NW again.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[Anonymous]

Here's your answer Derek:



So thanks to buoy 42058 we don't need to waste taxpayers money on a flight down there, or in the next couple days. By the way, Buoy 42058 is now showing rising pressure but the winds have turned to North and NW again.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

True but dont pressures normally rise in most places in the morning--and fall into the afternoon? Is the pressure lower than it was 24 hours ago

[Scott_inVA]

that was a bizzare cancellation, unless surface pressures have started to rise in the area

Contrasting off shore data from 02Z and 15Z, MSLPs appear flat or up slightly.

I suspect with ground truth now in place RECCO will be less knee-jerk in the area. Probably a good thing.

Scott

[Swimdude]

I still think it's strange that they cancelled. The NHC tends, from what i've seen, to 'go anyway' when a system like this has potential. Hmmm...

Convection has built even in the last 2 hours. [10 a.m. - Noon CT.]

[senorpepr]

Actually, this doesn't surprise me at all. I was expecting them to cancel the mission. The system doesn't look all that well at all and there's no need in wasting our tax dollars on a recon mission that will be next to useless.

[cycloneye]

That is why NOAA put those new bouys in the western caribbean to have more surface observations and because of the new tools recon does not have to go unless it is clear there is a LLC in the area with the bouy and ship observations data being collected.

[CFL]

When I looked at it a couple of hours ago it looked to me all the cloud tops were blowing off to the northeast. Looks like a hostile environment.

[george_r_1961]

In my early morning forecast I dropped chances of development in that area...for now.