My thinking of invest 92L

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


On the night time visible satelilte, it seems that a tighting cirualtion has started to form. This cirulation is located on the western side of convection. In just to the southeast of the southern tip of Jamica. This area appears to be getting sheared with 20 to 25 knot shear. So this system is rather one sided. The reinforment of shear has made it to our system.

The system is likely to move to the north or northeastward. Over the next 24 hours along the front side of the trough...Wind shear should be enfavable for rapid development. But should be favable enough to form a system kind of like the one that made landfall on Hati last May on Hati killing 3,000 people. Then this system will move into the central Atlantic.

This system will be alot like Arlene.

I'm forecasting a 50 mph tropical storm some itme over the central north Atlantic.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html


Also things are changing by the hour with this storm.


The system is centered aroun 17 north/76 west

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is more of my reasoning on this.

First the trough has digged into the caribbean enough to force the system up its front side.. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html It should fellow it up into between Hati an Cuba...Then move to the northeastward...

[Ola]

On the night time visible satelilte,

That must be a new invention.

[senorpepr]

On the night time visible satelilte,

That must be a new invention.

What he is referring to is "Near IR" satellite. It is sometimes called "nighttime visible," but in reality it is nothing more than infrared at a different wavelength. Near IR is between the standard infrared wavelength and the visible wavelength.

[stormandan28]

actually if you look at the satellite it looks like the system is split area to the southeast of jamaica I think will move west northwest and the area below puerto rico is heading north north east.

[Ola]

On the night time visible satelilte,

That must be a new invention.

What he is referring to is "Near IR" satellite. It is sometimes called "nighttime visible," but in reality it is nothing more than infrared at a different wavelength. Near IR is between the standard infrared wavelength and the visible wavelength.

I thought he meant a visible satelite with night vision gogles on.
Just joking

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm starting to have a bad feeling that this storm will be sheared to death tonight.

This is a very risky in hard forecast...

[senorpepr]

I'm starting to have a bad feeling that this storm will be sheared to death tonight.

This is a very risky in hard forecast...

But your good buddy (not mentioning any names) believe this is already a TD...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats why are men in women are fighting for people like him to say what he wents. He is not real that bad to some of the people that spit on the flag an or burn it.

Freedom of speech!!!

Also Seroperp what do you think personally about this system?

[Andrew92]

I'm starting to have a bad feeling that this storm will be sheared to death tonight.

This is a very risky in hard forecast...

Don't cry Matt. Be happy if it gets sheared to death. We don't like storms hitting anywhere and causing death and destruction.

-Andrew92

[senorpepr]

Thats why are men in women are fighting for people like him to say what he wents. He is not real that bad to some of the people that spit on the flag an or burn it.

Freedom of speech!!!

Also Seroperp what do you think personally about this system?

...not gonna take anything away from the freedom of speech part, but he shouldn't make it look so official. I actually have an interesting story about that from earlier today where someone saw an amature forecast and thought it was real, but that's for another time...

I think this storm has a chance at developing, but the time is ending soon. It wouldn't be too much longer and land will affect it. After that, it doesn't have a chance at really developing for several days once it enters the Atlantic.