0-190 mph in 72 hours flat...

[frederic79]

In between tropical systems I read through the NHC archives on Camille. Wow! I never noticed before how quickly Camille organized and deepened. It just goes to show just how fast things can come together under the right conditions.

[Brent]

Also remember that back then satellite's weren't NEARLY as good at estimating intensity. Without a plane, it was impossible to get an accurate estimate.

[dhweather]

Back then, satellite images were of little value.

Some judged the storms by their size on satellite back then - Camille wasn't too big, so she couldn't be too bad, eh?

[frederic79]

missions into Camille to monitor her progress. In fact, when they first flew into Camille they found a depression, but deepening was rapid enough to upgrade to a TS while recon was still observing it. So in spite of limited sat pics and technology, good ole recon was right there to document the changes. When Camille reached winds of 150-160 mph, bulletins stated that "little change in intensity was expected" until recon measured winds of 190 in the eyewall. It had to be one heck of a surprise for that crew!

[SouthernWx]

I was fortunate and priveleged to speak with John Hope on several occasions while he was at TWC, and we discussed Camille. John was one of the NHC hurricane specialists who was forecasting the developing hurricane, and he provided me a lot of info I couldn't learn from research.

For one thing, all the NHC forecasters believed Camille was bound for the northeastern Gulf coast....somewhere between Mobile and Apalachee Bay. The model data of that day and overall synoptic situation made a northward turn once in southeastern GOM seem likely. John's opinion was the fact Camille deepened so rapidly and became so intense was a major factor in "pumping up" the western extent of a ridge of high pressure (running from near Cape Hatteras to Grand Cayman Island).....thus keeping hurricane Camille on a NNW course to the time of landfall.

John said they knew the pattern was favorable for a strengthening storm, even a hurricane...but never anticipated such a rapid deepening (at least not before it happened).
Late on August 13th, the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean increased in size and extended over Haiti/ eastern Cuba into the SW Bahamas. On the following morning (8/14), reconissance aircraft were dispatched BOTH to the western Caribbean and SW Bahamas area....but it quickly became apparent the true action was coming down south of Grand Cayman.

The first pass around noon didn't find a well defined LLC, but the recon crew reported the storm appeared to be organizing rapidly....within three hours, they found 50 kt winds at flight level, and by the last center fix around dinnertime located a 991 mb pressure center (down from 1006 mb only 6-7 hours earlier), and estimated surface winds of 65-70 mph.

By the time the next recon mission reached Camille (1330z 8/15), the central pressure had fallen to 970 mb with surface winds of 100 mph...a pressure fall of 21 mb in roughly 14 hours. At that point, John Hope said they knew Camille was potentially a very serious hurricane in the making...125 mph or more; albeit it a very small one. Due to airway restrictions over Cuba, there was no recon for a few hours before landfall occurred there.....the last vortex fix (21z) found Camille a major hurricane with 115 mph or higher winds and 964 mb pressure.

That was the last recon penetration into Camille's eye until late morning the following day....although surface and radar reports from Cuba gave confidence Camille weakened little if at all during passage over the island. It's apparent an extremely rapid deepening began shortly after Camille re-emerged into the Gulf of Mexico (IMO similar to how Charley weakened slightly overland then bombed afterwords). Between 5 p.m. on 8/15 and 11 a.m. 8/16, Camille's central pressure fell from 964 mb to 908 mb....a fall of 56 mb in 18 hours.

We know from US Navy recon that Camille was deepening rapidly at night after passing over Cuba....they didn't attempt to penetrate the eyewall, but onboard radar showed the eye contracting to less than 8 miles in diameter and strong convection in all eyewall quadrants. While early Saturday advisories listed intensity at 115 mph, John Hope said the forecasters knew Camille was likely much stronger...at least 140 or more; and once the first recon vortex fix report arrived (908 mb/ 130+ kt winds), they knew a catastrophe was about to happen...with sst's over 85° all the way to the northern Gulf Coast.

Early Saturday evening, recon again penetrated the eyewall (the same USAF C-130 on another mission after resting at McCoy AFB Florida) and confirmed Camille still of extreme intensity....905 mb and estimated winds of at least 160 mph.
That was the last vortex fix until early afternoon the next day (Sun Aug 17th). Low level Navy reconnisance aircraft flew the hurricane's perimeter during the night and indicated little change had occurred...with flight level winds well in excess of 100 kt 30-40 miles or more from the small, compact eye (no radar evidence of concentric eyewalls or eyewall replacement underway).

An eyewall replacement cycle possibly occurred early on Sunday August 17th, because the USAF recon flight found Camille approaching the mouth of the Mississippi River (early afternoon), and after a very scary penetration of the eyewall...measured 918 mb (corrected AFTER they first reported a record breaking 901 mb/ 26.61" to NHC). Undoubtably, Camille was still an extreme hurricane....because as the aircraft flew outbound, one of the engines was damaged in the eyewall, caught on fire, and was feathered (shut down); leaving the C-130 flying on only 3 engines. During this pass through the SE eyewall (heading 150°), flight level winds of 182 kt were measured....about 210 mph.

The USAF captain declared an emergency and decided to abort any further flights into Camille (which would have been suicide)....the aircraft limped home and made a successful emergency landing at Houston, Texas. At this point (2-3 p.m.) John Hope said they believed the 901 mb reading to be true (and in retrospect, it may have been...in light of the flight level winds). Based on the aircraft report, NHC increased the sustained winds from 160 to 190 mph...as well as projected storm surge heights along the Mississippi Coast.

We'll probably never know the true maximum intensity of Camille, but we do know it deepened unlike anything John Hope and his NHC colleagues had ever seen, and maintained cat-5 intensity from the SE GOM to the Mississippi Coast. At some point, my personal theory is Camille's central pressure went as low as 895-900 mb....and max sustained winds were in the 190 mph range (at least for a short time).

While there is still debate to just how strong the winds were at landfall along the Mississippi Coast, there's no disputing:

1) Camille was by far the most intense hurricane to strike the northern Gulf Coast of record....no other landfalling hurricane comes close, not in storm surge or wind damage.

2) the record breaking 20-25' storm surge obliterated everything in it's path. Combined with IMO gusts over 200 mph, it's honestly a miracle the loss of life was as low as it was. If Camille had impacted greater New Orleans directly, IMO thousands would have died


**John Hope's personal estimate of Camille's intensity at landfall? In 1989 he told me sustained winds of at least 180-185 mph in his opinion...and 190 mph or more was not out of the question.

PW

[donsutherland1]

Fantastic post, Perry!

[dhweather]

Perry, thank you very much for sharing that.



David

[CFL]

Excellent post. I believe I've read somewhere that there is a museum or something of that nature dedicated to Hurricane Camille in coastal Mississippi. I need to check into that. I'd love to go visit.

[Brent]

GREAT post Perry.

I've always been amazed at Camille. Imagine a storm like that today heading for the Northern Gulf Coast.

[Brent]

Perry, thank you very much for sharing that.



David

Camille went right over your town didn't it???

[feederband]

What scares me about Camille is that some day, some year, we will talking about a Camille like storm heading in someone's direction. I don't think there will be to many people I disagree with that day .

[dhweather]

Perry, thank you very much for sharing that.



David

Camille went right over your town didn't it???

Yes. Directly over.

With the reanalysis of 1960's systems, perhaps there should be a
category 6 storm. When you look at pictures and talk to folks, it's
beyond scary what Camille did down here.

[frederic79]

Thank you, Perry, for your excellent insight and the fascinating information from such a respectable individual as John Hope. While I don't remember Camille (I was 3), many in my family do and reading about it is very interesting reading indeed.

[Radar]

One of the things that really fascinated me when I moved to South MS was how the Coastal MS residents talked about Camile (the ones who were old enough to remember it). They dont say Hurricane Camille, they simply say Camille as though she were an actual person and they describe her with a sense of awe. Although Camille did a tremendous amount of destruction here I think in some ways she has become well respected as well. One older gentleman I talked to said about *Camille* ..."You've heard the old saying 'Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned' well when I think of that saying I think of Camille and I never underestimate the power of nature". I will always remember him saying that it was very philosophical to me. I hope to never experience a Camille type storm but I know the possibility is out there and I wonder if I do cross paths with a monster like Camille if I can walk away from it with a sense of awe and respect like so many here in South MS have?

[MGC]

Perry, fantastic post. You should write a book about hurricanes of the gulf coast......MGC

[rtd2]

I was fortunate and priveleged to speak with John Hope on several occasions while he was at TWC, and we discussed Camille. John was one of the NHC hurricane specialists who was forecasting the developing hurricane, and he provided me a lot of info I couldn't learn from research.

For one thing, all the NHC forecasters believed Camille was bound for the northeastern Gulf coast....somewhere between Mobile and Apalachee Bay. The model data of that day and overall synoptic situation made a northward turn once in southeastern GOM seem likely. John's opinion was the fact Camille deepened so rapidly and became so intense was a major factor in "pumping up" the western extent of a ridge of high pressure (running from near Cape Hatteras to Grand Cayman Island).....thus keeping hurricane Camille on a NNW course to the time of landfall.

John said they knew the pattern was favorable for a strengthening storm, even a hurricane...but never anticipated such a rapid deepening (at least not before it happened).
Late on August 13th, the tropical wave moving across the Caribbean increased in size and extended over Haiti/ eastern Cuba into the SW Bahamas. On the following morning (8/14), reconissance aircraft were dispatched BOTH to the western Caribbean and SW Bahamas area....but it quickly became apparent the true action was coming down south of Grand Cayman.

The first pass around noon didn't find a well defined LLC, but the recon crew reported the storm appeared to be organizing rapidly....within three hours, they found 50 kt winds at flight level, and by the last center fix around dinnertime located a 991 mb pressure center (down from 1006 mb only 6-7 hours earlier), and estimated surface winds of 65-70 mph.

By the time the next recon mission reached Camille (1330z 8/15), the central pressure had fallen to 970 mb with surface winds of 100 mph...a pressure fall of 21 mb in roughly 14 hours. At that point, John Hope said they knew Camille was potentially a very serious hurricane in the making...125 mph or more; albeit it a very small one. Due to airway restrictions over Cuba, there was no recon for a few hours before landfall occurred there.....the last vortex fix (21z) found Camille a major hurricane with 115 mph or higher winds and 964 mb pressure.

That was the last recon penetration into Camille's eye until late morning the following day....although surface and radar reports from Cuba gave confidence Camille weakened little if at all during passage over the island. It's apparent an extremely rapid deepening began shortly after Camille re-emerged into the Gulf of Mexico (IMO similar to how Charley weakened slightly overland then bombed afterwords). Between 5 p.m. on 8/15 and 11 a.m. 8/16, Camille's central pressure fell from 964 mb to 908 mb....a fall of 56 mb in 18 hours.

We know from US Navy recon that Camille was deepening rapidly at night after passing over Cuba....they didn't attempt to penetrate the eyewall, but onboard radar showed the eye contracting to less than 8 miles in diameter and strong convection in all eyewall quadrants. While early Saturday advisories listed intensity at 115 mph, John Hope said the forecasters knew Camille was likely much stronger...at least 140 or more; and once the first recon vortex fix report arrived (908 mb/ 130+ kt winds), they knew a catastrophe was about to happen...with sst's over 85° all the way to the northern Gulf Coast.

Early Saturday evening, recon again penetrated the eyewall (the same USAF C-130 on another mission after resting at McCoy AFB Florida) and confirmed Camille still of extreme intensity....905 mb and estimated winds of at least 160 mph.
That was the last vortex fix until early afternoon the next day (Sun Aug 17th). Low level Navy reconnisance aircraft flew the hurricane's perimeter during the night and indicated little change had occurred...with flight level winds well in excess of 100 kt 30-40 miles or more from the small, compact eye (no radar evidence of concentric eyewalls or eyewall replacement underway).

An eyewall replacement cycle possibly occurred early on Sunday August 17th, because the USAF recon flight found Camille approaching the mouth of the Mississippi River (early afternoon), and after a very scary penetration of the eyewall...measured 918 mb (corrected AFTER they first reported a record breaking 901 mb/ 26.61" to NHC). Undoubtably, Camille was still an extreme hurricane....because as the aircraft flew outbound, one of the engines was damaged in the eyewall, caught on fire, and was feathered (shut down); leaving the C-130 flying on only 3 engines. During this pass through the SE eyewall (heading 150°), flight level winds of 182 kt were measured....about 210 mph.

The USAF captain declared an emergency and decided to abort any further flights into Camille (which would have been suicide)....the aircraft limped home and made a successful emergency landing at Houston, Texas. At this point (2-3 p.m.) John Hope said they believed the 901 mb reading to be true (and in retrospect, it may have been...in light of the flight level winds). Based on the aircraft report, NHC increased the sustained winds from 160 to 190 mph...as well as projected storm surge heights along the Mississippi Coast.

We'll probably never know the true maximum intensity of Camille, but we do know it deepened unlike anything John Hope and his NHC colleagues had ever seen, and maintained cat-5 intensity from the SE GOM to the Mississippi Coast. At some point, my personal theory is Camille's central pressure went as low as 895-900 mb....and max sustained winds were in the 190 mph range (at least for a short time).

While there is still debate to just how strong the winds were at landfall along the Mississippi Coast, there's no disputing:

1) Camille was by far the most intense hurricane to strike the northern Gulf Coast of record....no other landfalling hurricane comes close, not in storm surge or wind damage.

2) the record breaking 20-25' storm surge obliterated everything in it's path. Combined with IMO gusts over 200 mph, it's honestly a miracle the loss of life was as low as it was. If Camille had impacted greater New Orleans directly, IMO thousands would have died


**John Hope's personal estimate of Camille's intensity at landfall? In 1989 he told me sustained winds of at least 180-185 mph in his opinion...and 190 mph or more was not out of the question.

PW

Bravo Perry! I believe the paragraph I bold-ed and underlined was what the former Harrison County Civil defense director the Late Wade Guice described as the Difference between 10 and 10,000 tombstones..In other words the Recon crew saved MANY lives by risking theirs with that last recon that Caused an engine failure! Had this recon not been made the Forecasters may have Severely Underestimated Camille's winds and surge!...This last recon helped in INCREASING the Warnings of wind and surge with Camille...I too believe Camille's winds were at least 175-185 @ landfall and probably stronger offshore just before cutting cat and ship islands into!.... 38 miles south of Bay st Louis A Trans world oil rig platform tower that was abandoned as the hurricane approached, recorded winds to 172 mph until failure and The lowest barometric pressure recorded on land in Camille was 909 mb (26.85) at Bay St. Louis. I too Grew up watching John Hope and always enjoyed his forecast! Him along with Nash Roberts and Neil Frank are the Old school Forecasters! They gave you There thoughts and reasoning!Our local mets today Are simply Mouth Pieces for the NWS and NHC...I guess because of Liability issues?....To me Camille and Gilbert will Always be Storms others are measured by!..... anyway again GREAT POST!

[Swimdude]

I visited the town where Camille came onshore... Or pretty close. Biloxi MS. There's still damage along the beach houses and the mansions near the beach from that storm. My grandparents gave us the "Camille tour."

That was exciting. =)

[Anonymous]

My father recently passed away in Gulfport, MS, so he isn't available for exact details, but when I was younger, they told me the stories of Camille. I was 2 at the time, and we lived in New Orleans. They told me about walking through chest deep water to evacuate after the storm passed. My bedroom roof had collapsed onto my bed.

They told me about looking down I 90 at all the bodies. People and animals. Stories of buildings down, homes gone. People dead. I remember them telling me of a gust reported of over 200 mph in the Biloxi area (I believe at one of the military airfields in the area), just before the anemometer was ripped from the roof of the building.

Later, they moved to Florida. They always had a respect for hurricanes that their friends never understood.

[Mattie]

I was in Gulfport for Camille and we ran like bandits in the middle of the night as she came ashore. Our family is from east of Baton Rouge and at one point they were predicting that Camille would come up the mouth of the Mississippi. Even then we knew how catastrophic that would be so we ran from there - obliviously in the wrong direction, but nevertheless we ran. We had weathered Betsy and was dead center through that storm. There is absolutely no possible way for those to understand the power of that little storm they named Camille, unless they experienced the "fury". We were two blocks off the beach and everything in front of that house was leveled. It was an "awwing" and very much horrific scene when we saw the light of day and returned to the beach area.

Since then, I've been through all of the South Louisiana hurricanes, met a few during the summers that we spent at Gulf Shores and have been completely stunned to watch these events roll in. It's a "strange" fascination and addiction. I do love watching the storms, but always knowing the potential behind them can be very catastrophic. I guess this strange fascination of the power of mother nature equates to life itself - we are truly not in control and we can only hope and pray that miracles will always abound as proven by the many heroic stories that arise from challenges that are brought to us.

Jim Cantore was just on the Jane Pauley show along with rescuers, survivors, etc. It is simply amazing to see the rescue efforts and hear the survivors talk - their motivation to just wanting to get out alive, their determination and strength. Guess we should all say a quick prayer that our addiction and fascination with hurricanes continues to be fed this year, but with minimal destruction and loss of life.

[frederic79]

Well said! One aspect about storms like Camille that is rarely eluded to is the way individuals and communities are often jolted from their funk of normal routine and realize they need each other. I firmly believe that since we have no control over storms and what they do, the question I ask is "what can this teach me" or "how can I grow from this". I believe God allows circumstances sometimes to awaken us to what's really important (my wife and daughter just survived a horrific auto accident and are doing well). Trust me, I've gotten my priorities in order. I don't mean to sound over-philosophical, I just have a healthy respect for hurricanes and the hand of providence.