0Z Track Models...a Little Interesting

[MWatkins]

The NHC track models generally don't help on much...in terms of track...but here...they help a little.

At 18Z the models were initialzed at 15.0 75.5 moving 345 (NNW) at 4 knots.

Now...the models at 0z are at 14.5 76.0 with an initial motion of 290 (WNW) at 3. Although the steering currents are weak this could be somewhat interesting...the models are running against the 18z gfs background with a quick move out to sea (except the BAMS)...but the NOGAPS model wants to keep a skinny ridge north of the caribbean for a few days.

I wouldn't write this one on or off yet.

MW

[senorpepr]

Here's the NHC message...

Code: Select all

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION     INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050614  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050614  0000   050614  1200   050615  0000   050615  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.5N  76.0W   16.3N  76.3W   18.5N  76.5W   20.7N  76.4W
  BAMM    14.5N  76.0W   16.1N  76.9W   17.8N  77.5W   19.4N  78.1W
  A98E    14.5N  76.0W   14.8N  76.5W   15.7N  76.8W   17.3N  77.1W
  LBAR    14.5N  76.0W   15.7N  76.6W   17.8N  77.0W   19.8N  76.9W
  SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          27KTS          32KTS
  DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          24KTS          30KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050616  0000   050617  0000   050618  0000   050619  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    23.1N  75.8W   27.4N  71.3W   32.3N  64.2W   37.4N  58.2W
  BAMM    21.2N  78.0W   24.2N  74.4W   26.8N  67.1W   28.3N  62.5W
  A98E    19.5N  77.4W   22.0N  76.9W   25.3N  73.9W   29.8N  68.5W
  LBAR    21.7N  75.9W   24.2N  71.4W   26.4N  66.3W   29.8N  64.0W
  SHIP        37KTS          40KTS          40KTS          34KTS
  DSHP        29KTS          35KTS          34KTS          29KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  14.5N LONCUR =  76.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
  LATM12 =  14.4N LONM12 =  75.4W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
  LATM24 =  13.9N LONM24 =  74.8W
  WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   45NM WNDM12 =   15KT
  CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[senorpepr]

...and the image...

[MWatkins]

Thanks senorpepr! Forgot to actually post the guidance!

MW

[HURAKAN]

It will be really interesting to have a tropical system crossing eastern Cuba, since Georges in 1998 no tropical system has made an important impact on the area, and they need the rain very badly. By the way, the last major hurricane to impact eastern Cuba was Flora back in 1963, more than 40 years without a major strike. Maybe Nature said, "well, with Fidel Castro taking over this region I guess I don't need to send a major hurricane."

[Anonymous]

Definitely looks like they trended westward since the 1800z run

[Josephine96]

Models look like they are saying fish

[OtherHD]

Once a storm is in the Caribbean, it's almost guaranteed not to be a fish. There ARE other countries outside of the US.

[HURAKAN]

Models look like they are saying fish

Fish in respect to the United States, but the system will have a direct impact in Jamica, Cuba, and the Bahamas if the tracks forecasted become reality.

[Lowpressure]

If it is tenacious enough to make it through to Jamaica, I say a more westward trend. If it does not develop in 24 hours, it will probably move into Cuba and then out to sea. 50/50 at this point.

[feederband]

At least something to talk about...Wonder if there will be somethung out there all season to talk about....

[Brent]

When is the last time a system moved DIRECTLY over Jamaica? Charley and Ivan last year all made turns to avoid it. Lili in 2002 was east of Jamaica, turned northward, and then turned westward when it got north of the island. It seems no tropical cyclones like the island.

[boca]

Our blob will be a Eastern Cuba and SE Bahamas system because of the trough in the west expected to dig. If it were late July I would be worried in Florida.

[Hurricanehink]

When is the last time a system moved DIRECTLY over Jamaica? Charley and Ivan last year all made turns to avoid it. Lili in 2002 was east of Jamaica, turned northward, and then turned westward when it got north of the island. It seems no tropical cyclones like the island.

The last TS was Gordon in 1994

Last hurricane was Gilbert in 1988

Not too often for the tropics for a Jamaican hit.

[SouthernWx]

When is the last time a system moved DIRECTLY over Jamaica? Charley and Ivan last year all made turns to avoid it. Lili in 2002 was east of Jamaica, turned northward, and then turned westward when it got north of the island. It seems no tropical cyclones like the island.

Probably Gilbert in 1988....it went right down the middle of Jamaica, from ESE to WNW as a very destructive cat-3 hurricane. Once clearing Jamaica, rapid deepening occurred...with the central pressure bombing from 960 mb to 888 mb in less than 24 hours

As for this current system, I don't put much stock into those NHC track models until I see global models say the same. It would be quite unusual to see a tropical storm turn so sharply N and NE....even in mid June. I know there's a trough progged for the eastern U.S. by late week/ weekend, but didn't believe it to be that strong (progged low temp of 64-65° here in Hotlanta); nothing like the very deep trough which captured and accelerated Charley NNE across Florida last August (which set an all-time August low temp of 54° here).

It's just watch and wait time, but I won't be surprised to see whatever this system becomes end up over western Cuba or south Florida before all is said and done....

PW

[cyclonaut]

Something tells me this thing whatever it becomes could cause some anxious moments..I don't see it just heading NE & out.

[Brent]

Something tells me this thing whatever it becomes could cause some anxious moments..I don't see it just heading NE & out.

I've got a feeling it might turn NE... but will get dangerously close to Florida first. Maybe not making landfall, but it might scare everyone.

The trend on the models need to be watched...

[feederband]

Something tells me this thing whatever it becomes could cause some anxious moments..I don't see it just heading NE & out.

I've got a feeling it might turn NE... but will get dangerously close to Florida first. Maybe not making landfall, but it might scare everyone.

The trend on the models need to be watched...

Close to Florida !!!

[wxman57]

Take a look at the very deep trof digging down into the northern Caribbean. With west and southwest winds aloft, this system will have a hard time moving much to the west. Should head mostly north then northeast, if not NNE-NE initially.

<img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_200_000m.gif">

[Scott_inVA]

Take a look at the very deep trof digging down into the northern Caribbean. With west and southwest winds aloft, this system will have a hard time moving much to the west. Should head mostly north then northeast, if not NNE-NE initially.

<img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_200_000m.gif">

I'm with wxman57

While having a trof dive down over along the Apps is a good thing IF you want a CONUS landfall, this does not appear to be the case over the next several days. Very little western component, IMO.

Scott

Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm