6/13/2005 5PM TWO - possible recon tomorrow

[donsutherland1]

Canegrl04,

Since 1950, there have been 5 seasons that saw two or more storms develop in June:

1968: 3
1957: 2 (including Audrey)
1959: 2
1982: 2
1986: 2

Audrey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane.

[dhweather]

Man! We're looking at a 2-1 score only 2 weeks into the season! Take that, E-Pac!

And all the years we saw the EPAC just blow the ATL away!
NO MORE EPAC DOMINATION!

[HURAKAN]

Man! We're looking at a 2-1 score only 2 weeks into the season! Take that, E-Pac!

And all the years we saw the EPAC just blow the ATL away!
NO MORE EPAC DOMINATION!

The EPAC is just taking a break, but if just a weak EL NINO develops, you would see how it responds, like what happened in 2002 when 3 systems reached category 5 (Elida, Hernan, & Kenna). By the way, in 2008 Kenna will be Karina if my memory is right.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So they retired it?

[senorpepr]

So they retired it?

Take a guess...

[x-y-no]

I'm not convinced this at this point that this is going to organize ... worth watching, obviously, but as of now it's just a big blob of rain that's likely to drift across eastern Cuba.

My opinion may change in the morning.

[Brent]

So they retired it?

That was a no-brainer. They've retired storms that were a lot less in terms of deaths etc.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KENNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MOVING MORE RAPIDLY
TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN SOUTHWARD TO LA FORTUNA...INCLUDING ISLAS
MARIAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA FORTUNA
TO MANZANILLO.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KENNA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...65
KM...WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO.

KENNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KENNA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND IN THE WARNING AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KENNA REMAINS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE...CAPABLE OF CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT KENNA MAY BE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. ALTHOUGH SOME
WEAKENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...KENNA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE CENTER OF KENNA WITHIN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF KENNA. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...20.5 N...106.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 AM PDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

and then...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE TIME
OF LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 140 MPH...MAKING KENNA A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AT
LANDFALL...AND THE THIRD STRONGEST HURRICANE TO STRIKE THE PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO. KENNA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

[Huckster]

Canegrl04,

Since 1950, there have been 5 seasons that saw two or more storms develop in June:

1968: 3
1957: 2 (including Audrey)
1959: 2 (including Beulah)
1982: 2
1986: 2

Audrey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane. Beulah peaked as a Category 5 hurricane but made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane. Those are the only two major hurricanes to make U.S. landfall in June.

Don, if memory serves me correctly, there was a tropical storm named Beulah in 1959, but Major Hurricane Beulah was in 1967. I don't think the tropical storm in 1959 made a U.S. landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

Buelah did not make landfall in June as a major.

The Buelah that hit as a 3 was in 1967, not 1959

[Josephine96]

Convection does look impressive on that satellite loop.. Looks like the reds and yellows have exploded as they organize..

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

If the link works... Looks an awful lot like a four leaf clover doesn't it?

[dhweather]

Gee, it's our lucky blob!

[donsutherland1]

Corrected:

Since 1950, there have been 5 seasons that saw two or more storms develop in June:

1968: 3
1957: 2 (including Audrey)
1959: 2
1982: 2
1986: 2

Audrey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane. The other major hurricane that made landfall in June was not Beulah (1967) but Hurricane #2 (1934). I regret the error concerning Beulah.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Derek and Huckster. I should have proofread before posting. I've posted a corrected message at the end of this thread.