And then there was Brett

#21 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:43 pm

There is an invest on it. 91L -or at least the models are being run to that. See the post about Bret becoming fish for the link.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #22 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:44 pm

Here is the deal this morning. The trough has kept moving south as of right now 20 knot shear is affecting this system. Another impulse/back up is coming in from the northwest. It looks like its going to be unfavable for development...We will see if it can move up the back side of this over the next few days.

I guest I jumped it a little early. But I like to be the first on these systems.

sfwx · #23 Postby **sfwx** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:56 pm

From the Melbourne NWS:

SAT-MON...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERSISTENCE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION...WITH
SOME SUGGESTION THAT A DISTINCT TROPICAL LOW COULD TAKE SHAPE
FROM WITHIN THE GENERAL LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/GYRE THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS.

Eric

cyclonaut · #24 Postby **cyclonaut** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 4:49 pm

Good looking blob,but far from being Bret.

#25 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 4:58 pm

I would say an invest would be in order. Probably within the next 12 hours if it holds together. IMO

#26 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:04 pm

Well I was right about an Invest. I said within 12 hours, did not know it would be 3 minutes after my post though. LOL...........

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #27 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:08 pm

Just a note to all, be careful handing out names to every blob that comes about. These names are to help clarify actual tropical cyclones. The reasoning becomes void if we start handing out a name to any old blob of convection before it becomes a tropical depression. Until this becomes 02L (in the event it does), this is not "Bret" (note the correct spelling), but rather 92L.

cyclonaut · #28 Postby **cyclonaut** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:10 pm

Wpwxguy wrote:Well I was right about an Invest. I said within 12 hours, did not know it would be 3 minutes after my post though. LOL...........

LOL

Good Call!

#29 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:22 pm

TD it is not and Bret it is not. Just finished looking at visible sat loops and all I see on the S side of this system is collapsing thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. This is not conducive to building a tropical cyclone, much less a stacked tropical cyclone. We may have an invest, but I don't see a TD very soon unless it really starts to get its' act together overnight.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #30 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:43 pm

vbhoutex wrote:TD it is not and Bret it is not. Just finished looking at visible sat loops and all I see on the S side of this system is collapsing thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. This is not conducive to building a tropical cyclone, much less a stacked tropical cyclone. We may have an invest, but I don't see a TD very soon unless it really starts to get its' act together overnight.

Yes, and to piggyback, the window of development is closing as the system is forecast to move north-northwestward toward Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

#31 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 7:24 pm

Not too certain about a spin. I see pretty violent atmosphere to develop this thing right now where it sits. If it can get far enough west i.e. past Jamaica then I think it's on. Diurnal effect has most of Central and South America under some kind of storm this evening.

Scott_inVA · #32 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Mon Jun 13, 2005 9:28 pm

6/14/5 @ 02Z link below.
It's pretty quiet:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/storm1_OS.png

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

And then there was Brett

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