A little upwelling from Arlene - SST loop

[dhweather]

The extreme NE GOM cooled off just a little from Arlene, watch this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thanks dweather I agree. Arlene had a very powerful LLC. In which took alot of heat to hold the system together. Just think for a second if it did not have that dry air or shear.

[dhweather]

Arlene did rather well for herself, given the circumstances. That much dry air will do many systems in.

[Swimdude]

This is the only place that I know of where we can speak of storms as if they're actual people, and not get weird looks. It's satisfying.

[Anonymous]

This is the only place that I know of where we can speak of storms as if they're actual people, and not get weird looks. It's satisfying.

She wasnt a person??

[Steve]

dh,

what's super interesting (or should be for you) is that the hottest water in the Gulf is south of the LA and MS coasts right now. Vermillion Bay is the hottest outside of the Bay of Campeche.

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/05jun/ ... 2_2359.png

I didn't do a season forecast this year, but I think (as I have the last 3 years) that Mississippi is in the crosshairs. If anything hits us in LA, you already know you've got a nice slice of the pie. Also Galveston Bay is cooking for you Texans. Nature (conservation of mass, conservation of energy) had a tendency to want to resolve itself. We shall see.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

That's interesting but normal, it should get back to normal over the next few days.

[dhweather]

dh,

what's super interesting (or should be for you) is that the hottest water in the Gulf is south of the LA and MS coasts right now. Vermillion Bay is the hottest outside of the Bay of Campeche.

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/05jun/ ... 2_2359.png

I didn't do a season forecast this year, but I think (as I have the last 3 years) that Mississippi is in the crosshairs. If anything hits us in LA, you already know you've got a nice slice of the pie. Also Galveston Bay is cooking for you Texans. Nature (conservation of mass, conservation of energy) had a tendency to want to resolve itself. We shall see.

Steve

Boy, that's the truth. From around the mouth of the MS river to Vermillion is all cookin. And yes, and SE LA landfall will be hard on us particularly. Isidore, just a large TS, pushed water all up into Hancock county, as landfall was made near Grand Isle.

If this turns out to be a GOM season, there's a lot of potential for major canes.

[BayouVenteux]

dh,

what's super interesting (or should be for you) is that the hottest water in the Gulf is south of the LA and MS coasts right now. Vermillion Bay is the hottest outside of the Bay of Campeche.

FWIW Steve, some reported water surface temps from that general vicinity this evening:

Salt Point (LSU Coastal Studies Institute Monitoring Station) 83.8° F

Marsh Island (LSU Coastal Studies Institute Monitoring Station) 88.7°

The LUMCON Center's station near Chauvin...88.0° F

Wow, those last two are hard to believe for June 12..can they indeed be correct!?

[Steve]

I don't know. 88 degrees is Cat 3 stuff to be sure.

>>Boy, that's the truth. From around the mouth of the MS river to Vermillion is all cookin. And yes, and SE LA landfall will be hard on us particularly. Isidore, just a large TS, pushed water all up into Hancock county, as landfall was made near Grand Isle.

Frank P (esteemed member of S2k and CFHC) said that Isidore was one of the highest storm tides/surges since Camile. He lives on Beach Blvd. in Bix so if anyone knows, Frank P knows. (Obligatory shout out to Frank P). Off the record, I think we've got a shot at a Cat 2 or 3 between Terrebonne Parish and Santa Rosa Co. this year.

Steve

[Scorpion]

I find the 88 hard to believe. It was about 84-85 degree SSTs in the Caribbean according to the ship.

[crazycajuncane]

It's been a hot June around here. I think we were hitting upper 90's in May. Plus we were in a good long drought for a while.

A lot of summers we don't get past 95 degrees and we've beat that several times already. It's probably that hot in the Vermillion Bay.

BTW.... that is the same Vermillion Bay that saved us from being hit with a Cat. 4 Hurricane in 2002.

[Frank P]

Steve wrote:

Frank P (esteemed member of S2k and CFHC) said that Isidore was one of the highest storm tides/surges since Camile. He lives on Beach Blvd. in Bix so if anyone knows, Frank P knows. (Obligatory shout out to Frank P). Off the record, I think we've got a shot at a Cat 2 or 3 between Terrebonne Parish and Santa Rosa Co. this year.

Hi Steve, my good cresent city neighbor, yeah I've been tracking storms since Camille and Issy is the only storm since to actually put water at the base of the seawall in front of my house in Biloxi.. and I've stayed in my house for every storm since I bought my house in 1975. Note: Elane and Georges could not do it.... that's about an 8.5 to 9 foot surge to get water to the base of the seawall... thing about Izzy was I got hardly no convection at all with the system... (I know the surge for Georges was much worse more to the east in Gautier and the Pascagoula) Izzy was interesting because I sat in my lawn chair pretty much throughout the entire storm watching the surge put the new MS coast coliseum pier in front of my house, and didn't get wet.... my winds might have been 50K at best and only in gusts... more like 40K... but the surge was incredible for just a TS will little convection (in my area)... lessoned learned for sure. Since Camille, no storm surge has been higher in my area than Izzy...

that pier was about a mile away to the east and it was deposited on the beach in sections from Izzy....

[Steve]

That's funny because it's kind of the same thing that happened here for Georges. We got a total of like .25" of rain with him, but the wind and waves destroyed the majority of the remaining camps on Lake Pontchartrain, flooded the Lakefront Airport (like I had never seen before) and demolished Brunnings Seafood Restauraunt. Sometimes being on the east or west side of a storm, even if dry, you can still have some serious impact.

Steve

[dhweather]

Wow, it's 90 here now, with a heat index of 106 - won't take long at all
to warm things back up.

[Lowpressure]

I see Grand Isle and Pensacola at 86.2 and Freeport Tx at 89.2! It is plenty hot out there and a little early.

[dhweather]

Well, it looks like the SST's have rebounded nicely after Arlene.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html