There seems to be the first signs of a spin

[drezee]

mid level turning is clearly evident

[Derek Ortt]

if the upper trough stays to the north, this is almost a shoe in to become Bret

However, a July disturbance in 1998 where the upper trough dropped down suddenly and unexpectedly is still very fresh in my mind as a warning about how bad these upper wind forecasts truly are. We'll know whether this is a repeat of that in the next 12 hours

[drezee]

599
ABNT20 KNHC 130906
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN JAMAICA AND COLOMBIA...AND SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL IN THIS AREA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A REGION OF IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD AND IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[drezee]

Winds at buoy 42057 have turned more SE (120 degs) from 105 of the last few hours. Pressure at buoy 42058 has falen to 1007.5. buoy 42057 still at 1007.3

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes there is pressure falls. In yes there is a broad disoreganized area of low pressure. What I think is that the upper low will drop west of 80 west into the caribbean while building a ridge into the central Caribbean. In that could even help inhance the outflow to the northwest. I think it will only drop to around 17 north. The the upper high will slowly build westward. I think that this cirualtion will slowly become more oreganized over the next 24 hours.

The models show almost no development from this. In the fact that the convection is developing on the eastern side of the system, is not helping.

I say 25 percent chance for a depression over the next 48 hours.
I say 10 percent chance of Bret

But I think that the enviroment will be partly favable... But with no model support I'm not ready to jump the gun.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This shows that any cirualtion would be well removed from the convection to the east.

The center I think is 15 north/76 west

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/caribbean.gif


There is a cirualtion but it is at 15 north/76 west. In is far removed from the convection over the far eastern quad. This appears almost like Arlene like storm.

Intill convection forms over that weak center then no development.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this is going to be very close. But I think it will push south just to the west while enhancing a upper high over most of the system. Buoy shows 15 knot winds over eastern quad. Still what ever center it has is exposed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection is trying to get better oreganized. With even some forming on the northwestern quad. The conveciton is also trying to wrap a little. But that shear is sure going to be close.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts


The buoy near 15 north/75 west.

[Zadok]

It looks like it is trying to perk up again this morning.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The first 8 visisble frames show that there is a broad Surface low that has formed. In with the upper high slowly moving into the central Caribbean. In the fact that the shear has not moved south over the last 6 hours. I upgrade the chances for this to become our second depression over the next 48 hours to 40 percent. Tropiacl storm Bret to 25 percent.

It is still going to be close

Center at around 15.1/75.8

[cycloneye]

A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM
19N76W SW TO 12N80W WITH A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N75W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE E OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 13N72W-17N76W.

The above from the 8 AM discussion from TPC.That is a mid level circulation there.



quickScat does not show anything at the surface as there are strait winds and nothing curving.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It did the same with hurricane Charley when it was south of Jamica.

[Trader Ron]

Nothing, Nada, Zip.

[cycloneye]

It did the same with hurricane Charley when it was south of Jamica.

What? The same????

[Derecho]

I say 25 percent chance for a depression over the next 48 hours.
I say 10 percent chance of Bret

But I think that the enviroment will be partly favable... But with no model support I'm not ready to jump the gun.

Well, of the 80 or so named storms in June in the Atlantic since 1851, precisely ONE of them made Category 4.

So, if you give it a 25% chance of making named storm, perhaps it would be more accurate to give it a .3% chance of Bret.

Having followed the tropics for a decade, the next time a storm compared to some other storm ends up anything like that other storm will basically be the first time.

A lot of storms have formed in each of the various areas storms can form; the ridiculous practice of proclaiming each wave, blob, depression, TS in each of these areas as the next (insert the strongest or close to the strongest storm to form anywhere remotely near that area) is pretty misleading.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quickscat is not always usebale. It has messed many a cyclone cirualtion.

[Brent]

I don't see the spin whatsoever...looks like a bunch of disorganized thunderstorms to me.

Yep... and dare I say there's a little -removed- going on here? It's mid-June. Some of these people aren't going to make it til Late August.

[Brent]

Quickscat is not always usebale. It has messed many a cyclone cirualtion.

Fine... you can pay for a recon plane to go out there and find nothing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Your usiing the -removed- tool. Yeah keep on calling me a wishcaster!!! Becaue the person that calls some one else a wishcaster is normally one there selfs.