"Slow Development Is Possible In The Western Caribbean

[Swimdude]

THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

Hmmm that global model doesn't seem to specify whether they're expecting the system to develop or not. Just sounds like my portion of the Gulf coast will see some rain from it.

[krysof]

Wow I've been gone for over a week due to computer problems. I can't believe Arlene already developed and made landfall. I guess theories of a late season are out. Since it's mid June, if anything else develops, I don't expect to strengthen too much.

I'm waiting for August.

P.S. I'm using someone else's computer right now so I will be gone for a few more days until my computer gets fixed.

[Anonymous]

Do you guys know how insane this is in June? 2 tropical systems probably making landfall in the month of June if this develops?!!! I see this moving west briefly then making a u-turn and crossing the southern tip of Fla if it develops as there will be no bermuda High to send it further west.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Not weird at all. 3 hurricanes hit in June. I'v seen some weird season. In with this knowledge you know longer think seasons like last year, or for that matter the record. Is any more but to look back on.

[Nimbus]

If I am reading the Global forecasting system model correctly it looks as though the strong high pressure ridge over the western atlantic will erode after 72 hours. Guess the track depends on where this tropical wave decides to flare up into something that could be steered by the upper level winds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Nimus.


Here is the closes buoy showing a East-northeastward wind. Which would show that there is at least a trough there. Pressure is also falling.

14.98 N 74.99 W (14°58'40" N 74°59'34" W)



Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): E ( 88 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 °F

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They do forecast a low to form. 1007 millibars.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[Zadok]

From the Sat. pics this afternoon it looks like it's busting up to me guys.

[Zadok]

This morning there was big bursts of convection. This afternoon it looks like there are smaller bursts of convection more spread out. It looks like the process has had a monkey wrench thrown in it. Maybe tomorrow?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks like the convection is slowly becoming better oreganized. In also the wind shear has been going down. The shear to the north is the only unfavable thing that could limit this.

1000 post

[Zadok]

This morning there was big bursts of convection and looking like there might be some circulation forming around it. But tonight all we have is some busted up thunderstorms.

[feederband]

It looks like the convection is slowly becoming better oreganized. In also the wind shear has been going down. The shear to the north is the only unfavable thing that could limit this.

1000 post

Congrats Matt on your cane status.

[robjay]

Is the monsoon trough the elongated area of shear up in Canada?

[CFL]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1886/index.html

Not weird at all. 3 hurricanes hit in June. I'v seen some weird season. In with this knowledge you know longer think seasons like last year, or for that matter the record. Is any more but to look back on.

I looked at that link. Wow - what an active season that was!

[Stratosphere747]

Whenever 1886 is mentioned, it literally sends shivers down my spine.

This is the year that the only *if the Hurdat analysis is in fact true* Cat 5 hurricane hit Texas, and basically wiped what was left of Indinaola off the map.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We only have 1 percent of hurricane history. How can we take 60 years of satellite data seriously? A hurricane would have to do two things before 1960.

1# Some underlucky ship got into one.
2# It hit land.

Every year is different...Like snow flakes they are all different. I was looking back over the last 150 years. In there is some real amazing years. This season would have to be very much bader then 2004 to even stand out in the record of just the last 150 years.


In this fact is why tracking hurricanes is fun...In or interesting. In it is why I do it. Every season is different.

[weatherwindow]

good insight, rainstorm.....tropical development in the western carib is benefitting from low level sw inflow from the eastern pacific and anomolously low pressures via the monsoon trough....as for the disturbance in the central carib, most of the models are depicting a rapid weakening of the ridge to its north. ...none of them are suggesting serious westward motion. with varying speed, all are taking any low immediately northeast over the bahamas. i dont see this as a potential threat to the GOM..........rich

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear is now 10 knots over our system south of Jamica. In it is forming poppy convection which is a sign of something. Interesting. The 18z gfs also wents to make a weak system in move it into the Atlantic.

[kevin]

I say this system makes it, which is going to screw up my forecast of only 10 named storms this year. I might have to adjust up to 11 in my July forecast.

[cyclonaut]

Not all models are taking this potential system immediately north & east.