"Slow Development Is Possible In The Western Caribbean

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 12, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
There are two distinct areas of disturbed weather in the tropics
today. The first one is the large area of cloudiness and showers
over the central Caribbean Sea that has been moving slowly westward
for the past few days. There are no signs of surface circulation
but surface pressures are low in the area. A slow development is
possible over the next couple of days as the disturbance drifts
toward the western Caribbean Sea.
The other one is a large area of cloudiness and showers centered
about 450 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands...primarily
associated with an upper-level low. Upper level winds are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
Forecaster Avila

[Thunder44]

Keyword there is "slow"

[Portastorm]

NHC appears to suggest the Caribbean "pot" is still percolating.

Wonder if the disturbed weather in the central Caribbean will ultimately impact those of us west of 90 degrees longitude? The 0Z run of the GFS moves some moisture towards the western GOM later this week ... hmmm.

[Anonymous]

Doubtful as models dont show too much coming from it.

[stormie]

In reference to the large area of cloudiness and showers over the central Caribbean Sea that has been moving slowly westward for the past few days, is this Invest 91? Or am I totally confused??

[HURAKAN]

In reference to the large area of cloudiness and showers over the central Caribbean Sea that has been moving slowly westward for the past few days, is this Invest 91? Or am I totally confused??

Invest 91L developed north of the Leeward Islands and dissipated. This system is north of Colombia, South of the Hispanola and Puerto Rico, and doesn't have anything to do with Invest 91L.

[HURAKAN]

Keyword there is "slow"

True, but also, "Possible."

[HURAKAN]

Wind Shear is around 20 knots.



Wind Shear Tendency shows winds decreasing in the next 24 hours.

[stormie]

Thank you for answering my novice question !

So, I'm wondering how, when, etc. an Invest is named. Maybe there's a website out there that can give me an intro to the basics of this?

When they say NOW winds are favorable for development, I'd like to learn more so I can understand a little bit more about why....not sure where I would begin to get that level of information about this possible area of development or others...???

[cyclonaut]

Keyword there is "slow"

True, but also, "Possible."

Yep there are 2 keywords there,"slow" & "possible".

I guess its kind of like if your cup is half "empty" or half "full" as to how one interprets that.For me...the fact that it says "possible" is reason enough to keep an eye on it.

[HURAKAN]

Keyword there is "slow"

True, but also, "Possible."

Yep there are 2 keywords there,"slow" & "possible".

I guess its kind of like if your cup is half "empty" or half "full" as to how one interprets that.For me...the fact that it says "possible" is reason enough to keep an eye on it.

Completely Agree, also, good analogy with the half/full cup.

[Anonymous]

Yes, possible but not likely... but stranger things have happenned so if ya have nothing better to do and some spare time, you can watch it. Hmmm-its kinda like watching paint dry-Fun!

[MGC]

Give this disturbance a couple of days to move into the NW Carb Sea. The ULL north of the islands is causing a too much shear plus the NW Carb Sea is a more favorable area for this time of the year......MGC

[skysummit]

I wonder if this will soon become a weekly event?

[PTrackerLA]

NWS Lake Charles mentions this system as raising our rain chances next week:



Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather glossary is available here


000
FXUS64 KLCH 120913
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
4 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

FURTHER-UP, AN OMEGA PATTERN CONTINUES TO DESCRIBE THE HEIGHT FIELD,
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLIES FOLLOWING A SINUSOIDAL COURSE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE RUNNING A FEW FAHRENHEIT DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL; WHILE THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE ABOUT SEASONAL.

&&

.OUTLOOK...
THE GLOBAL MODEL DEPICTS A TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING WEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY
BRING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ALSO, THE GLOBAL MODEL DEPICTS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ADVANCING
THROUGH THE PINEY HILLS OF LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY, AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE EXITS INTO TEXAS. THIS JUNE COLD FRONT MAY ALSO BRING ABOUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

[cyclonaut]

Yes, possible but not likely... but stranger things have happenned so if ya have nothing better to do and some spare time, you can watch it. Hmmm-its kinda like watching paint dry-Fun!

I'm not saying to sit in front of the computer all the day & watch relentless loops of this Caribbean thing.However, NHC mentions "slow development is possible",its hurricane season & thats what all of us here do this time of year is watch for tropical development,be it slow or rapid.

[skysummit]

Wind shear looks to decrease in the near future, water temps are really warm, and convection is there. Let it stay around awhile, and it will form! That's what I think anyway

[ncweatherwizard]

I just wanted to clear up a common misconception about those 24 shear tendency maps...they're representations of the change in shear over the past 24 hours not the next 24 hours.

[Anonymous]

I just wanted to clear up a common misconception about those 24 shear tendency maps...they're representations of the change in shear over the past 24 hours not the next 24 hours.

here is a map of forecasted shear 12 hrs out

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_12.gif

24 hrs
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_24.gif

36hrs
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_36.gif

48hrs
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

[rainstorm]

i said 4 days ago another june development is likely because the monsoon trough is well northeast of its normal position