Great Job NHC

[Wpwxguy]

I'd just like to say thanks and congrats to the National Hurricane Center on a job well done. They were pretty much on the money with Arlene from the get go. A lot of us like to second guess them and ask why they did not move their track here or there, but I gotta hand it to them they did a great job. She turned out to be quite a dud, but she was just what we all needed to kick off our season. Thanks to all. See ya in a few days with Bret! LOL

Bill

[StormChasr]

The NHC did an excellent job on filtering out some of the "garbage data" that a few of the models were spitting out. They called this storm really well. I think the only thing that caught some folks by surprise is that Arlene didn't develop into a 'cane, but it ran out of water, and time--sucked up dry air and wilted a bit.

[jlauderdal]

The NHC did an excellent job on filtering out some of the "garbage data" that a few of the models were spitting out. They called this storm really well. I think the only thing that caught some folks by surprise is that Arlene didn't develop into a 'cane, but it ran out of water, and time--sucked up dry air and wilted a bit.

intensity forecasting still a mystery and nhc will be the first to tell you that.

[Brent]

Yep... good job as always. The landfall was always projected to between Pascagoula and Pensacola.

Intensity is so much tougher... just about every storm is off in that regard, but no one can do better.

[StormChasr]

Yep... good job as always

Charley? lol

[Brent]

Yep... good job as always

Charley? lol

Do we HAVE to have this tired old debate again???

Charley made landfall WELL WITHIN both the hurricane warning and the projected path. The only thing they blew was the Hurricane Warning for the FL East Coast(way way too late), but they also didn't expect it to explode to almost a Cat 5 before landfall.

[SouthernWx]

The NHC did an excellent job on filtering out some of the "garbage data" that a few of the models were spitting out. They called this storm really well. I think the only thing that caught some folks by surprise is that Arlene didn't develop into a 'cane, but it ran out of water, and time--sucked up dry air and wilted a bit.

Landfalling U.S. hurricanes during June are quite unusual (the last one occurred 19 yrs ago), but there was reasonable model guidance and overall synoptic setup that a minimal cane wasn't out of the question; and in fact, Arlene was very close to cat-1 intensity Friday evening (989 mb/ 75 kt @ 850 mb flight level).

PW

[AussieMark]

Hurricane Allison in early June 1995 even weakened prior to landfall.

Hurricane US hits in June are not that common. There have been only 3 since 1960.

[Brent]

Hurricane Allison in early June 1995 even weakened prior to landfall.

Hurricane US hits in June are not that common. There have been only 3 since 1960.

Speaking of which... when was the last time a Gulf hurricane DIDN'T weaken before landfall?

[AussieMark]

Hurricane Allison in early June 1995 even weakened prior to landfall.

Hurricane US hits in June are not that common. There have been only 3 since 1960.

Speaking of which... when was the last time a Gulf hurricane DIDN'T weaken before landfall?

Charley in 2004

[Brent]

Hurricane Allison in early June 1995 even weakened prior to landfall.

Hurricane US hits in June are not that common. There have been only 3 since 1960.

Speaking of which... when was the last time a Gulf hurricane DIDN'T weaken before landfall?

Charley in 2004

I meant Northern Gulf.

Ivan... Lili... Opal... they all did.

[AussieMark]

Hurricane Allison in early June 1995 even weakened prior to landfall.

Hurricane US hits in June are not that common. There have been only 3 since 1960.

Speaking of which... when was the last time a Gulf hurricane DIDN'T weaken before landfall?

Charley in 2004

I meant Northern Gulf.

Ivan... Lili... Opal... they all did.

Georges maintained strength in 1998 but was a 110 mph Category 2

Elena in 1985 came in as a 115 mph category 3.

[HURAKAN]

They always do a great job, but people don't take them seriously that's probably why we have cases like Charley.

[SouthernWx]

Yep... good job as always

Charley? lol

The only problem with NHC I see regarding Charley was the failure to upgrade the hurricane to cat-3 at 11 a.m. EDT 8/13...based on recon data suggesting rapid deepening was underway (esp. the rise in eye temperature).

Charlotte county was well within a hurricane warning, as was Sanibel-Captiva island. No one in either area should have been caught off guard...

Here's what I posted here at 11:40 p.m. 8/11.....


"I believe the NHC intensity forecast is much too conservative along the entire forecast track. Avila himself said the GFDL proggs a 120-125 mph hurricane before landfall south of Havana. Why? Because the hurricane will encounter increasingly warmer sst's as it approaches Cuba....as warm as 88°...

The 18z GFDL also proggs a 130-135 mph hurricane at landfall in Florida....and no wonder. The entire forecast track from near Havana to just west of Key West to the FL west coast is over sst's of 86-89° (30-31.5°C). In all honesty, the potential scares the hell out of me Dude.

If I lived along the coast between Clearwater and Everglades City (or in the lower Keys), I'd be planning for a 135 mph hurricane....and hope to God Charley only reached 110. One thing that scares me? We're in uncharted waters with hurricane Charley. Never before has a significant hurricane in mid-August recurved into Florida from the SSW....never, not since 1846. This is an October-type trough and an October-type forecast track....except it will occur over mid-August sst's.

Another concern....if this hurricane indeed explodes to 130 mph or more, there will be MAJOR damage inland. On the NHC forecast track, with the progged acceleration, I wouldn't be surprised to see 100-120 mph gusts in Orlando and Daytona Beach".

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... highlight=

There was plenty of advance warning available to coastal residents of SW Florida, both from NHC and experienced amateur/ pro forecasters on this forum and others....problem is, many folks in Punta Gorda, Port Charlotte, and on Captiva were too busy watching the damn black line into Tampa Bay, and not seeing the big picture.

If you live along the coast and are placed inside a hurricane warning, best bet is to expect a hurricane....prepare and if in a vunerable location (barrier island, mobile home, etc), EVACUATE ASAP!!

PW

[tallywx]

SouthernWx, you deserve some sort of award for that post in advance of what transpired.

[donsutherland1]

I agree. NHC did an outstanding job. NHC is an invaluable resource and I can only have great things to say about their dedication and outstanding performance time and time again.

[donsutherland1]

Just fantastic insight, Perry. It is always a privilege to read your insights and knowledge.

Very best wishes.

[dhweather]

Perry, you and Don BOTH bring excellent insight into the board. I applaud both of your efforts and look forward to your opinions for the upcoming storms this year.


David

[Anonymous]

Yep... good job as always

Charley? lol

Yeah--I still think the NHC with todays technology should have been able to predict landfall better in the 6-12hr timeframe. But hey even the best cant be 100% right 100% of the time. They are the best we have though...

I did find this comment from a met in C Fla... Which he observed the North turn at 630am and NHC didnt notice it until 9AM

Hurricane Charley 6:30 A.M. - Friday - 8/13/04

Based on latest satellite and radar motion a solid north motion�a heading of 360-010 is underway�.a gradual turn to the NNE is expected today. This should bring the center inland between Spring Hill and Sarasota this evening. Now, that's not a real big swath but Tampa Bay lies right in the middle of it. Best case is for the center to cross south of the bay so the water does not pile up into the bay�.If the center crosses between Clearwater and Spring Hill then a 15 foot surge will swamp Tampa Bay and storm surge flooding and damage will be the likes of which we've not seen perhaps since Camille. I've not going there yet�.just want folks to be aware of the stakes here�..will have to watch and see when the NNE motion begins to take hold�.that will be the key as to where Charley makes landfall. Gut call right now is�.with latest radar trends showing an ever so slightly east of north motion is that it will come inland just south of Tampa Bay and spare them that 15 foot surge, no promises�.I'll be watching it through the day.

Hurricane Charley 10:00 A.M. - Friday - 8/13/04

***PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION***

TPC A LITTLE SLOW TODAY ON CURRENT EVENTS�.THEY DID NOT INDICATE A NORTH MOTION UNTIL 9 AM ADVISORY WHEN IT WAS OBVIOUS AT 7:00, WHEN THEY STILL HAD NNW.

LOOKING AT LATEST KET WEST RADAR TRENDS�.MOTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BEND EAST OF DUE NORTH�.FORWARD MOTION LOOKS TO BE CURRENTLY 020 DEGREES.

BASED ON THIS I HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE CHARLEY WILL COME IN SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY�AND THAT IS GOOD NEWS�.THAT WILL PREVENT A HUGE SURGE FROM COMING UP TAMPA BAY.

WITH THE CURRENT EASTWARD SHIFTING OF LATEST RADAR WILL NOW HAVE TO SHIFT LANDFALL POSITION SOUTH�.CURRENT THINKING IS NOW BETWEEN SARASOTA AND FORT MYERS AS A 115-125 MPH HURRICANE.

IF MY THINKING IS CORRECT CHARLEY COULD END UP PASSING EAST OF JAX.

UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.



http://www.snonut.flhurricane.com/index.html

Here was the 7am advisory repeat...

REPEATING THE 7 AM EDT POSITION...24.3 N... 82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 969 MB.

[Aquawind]

It amazes me how they can do such a good job with such a mess. Multiple vortices in a sheared enviroment with dry air to the west and moisture to the east. Granted the models picked up the system early and were fairly consistant on path. Intensity continues to be the problem and they admit to it. They continue to impress me..

Paul