Arlene-first storm and in early June--what does this mean???

[MGC]

Since 1995, 11 hurricane seasons including 2005, there have been 7 season with a June or earlier named system. There was also one STS in 1997 that occured in June that was un-named. In all but one of those season (1997) experienced above average number of named tropical cyclones.

1995: Allison-June 19 named systems
1996: Author-June 13 named systems
1997: STS-June, Ana-June 8 named system (El Nino season)
1999: Arlene-June 12 named systems
2001: Allison-June 15 named systems
2003: Ana-April, Bill-June 16 named systems
2005: Arlene-June ???????

Since the Atlantic is in the warm phase, I conclude that early season tropical cyclone formation has no relationship in the number of named systems that occur that particular season........MGC

[Terry]

If I go by my theory from this time last year, then I'd have to say that it will be a calm tropical season for FL this year. Last year I was saying that since FL and the Bahamas were having such a drought (we had little water in our cistern in the Bahamas, lake was low in Central FLA) that we'd be getting a few strong tropical events to make the average rainfall reach the annual "average"

Following that non-scientific theory, I'd have to then say that since we've had so dang much rain this season in FL and the Bahamas so far --cistern flowing over in the Bahamas, full lakes in Central FLA --- that we'll have little tropical events this year.

This appears to be an active season and I love lively tropical years. However, FL and the Bahamas need a one year respite. Let's give the rest of this active storm season to states to the North or West of FLA!!!