Low Forms North of Colombia ... the waiting game continues

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on June 11, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on weakening
Tropical Storm Arlene...located inland near the Alabama-Florida
border about 20 miles northwest of Pensacola Florida.

A large area of disturbed weather extends from the central and
northeastern Caribbean Sea...eastward across the leeward and Virgin
Islands...and into the adjacent waters of the Atlantic Ocean.
Thunderstorm activity has remained a little more concentrated south
of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico where a broad area of low pressure
has formed north of Colombia. However...upper-level winds are
currently unfavorable for any significant development to occur as
the system moves slowly west or northwestward over the next couple
of days.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Sunday.
Forecaster Stewart

[Lowpressure]

Active quite early. This entire area has been a mess of storms for several days now.

[BocaGirl66]

yeah it has been really flaring up


Junior @ West Boca Raton High School!

[cyclonaut]

The fact that this is north of Colombia is interesting..Earlier there was a hint from the models of a low possibly developing but it was much further east & would've most likely not have been much of a threat to the U.S.This system however is much farther west & will be moving west or northwest & has a better chance to be a threat IF it develops.

[Brent]

Western Caribbean is VERY warm...

[Brent]

Active quite early. This entire area has been a mess of storms for several days now.

Yep... I've seen so many storms over the years form from areas of convection that just sit over the water.

[Lowpressure]

It looks a little better there this morning. NHC said upper winds not that favorable for the next 2-3 days as the system moves generally west. If this much convection continues to move across warm waters, something has to give. I would say if it stays together until approach to Jamaica, then we have a system on our hands for the Gulf Late next week. I know that is a general statement, but it has hung tough so far and has deep convection this morning.

[Zadok]

It's looking more interesting.

[Lowpressure]

Looks better everytime I come back to the computer and look at that region.

[Zadok]

It looks like it's falling apart now.

[Swimdude]

I'm not exactly sure how you can say this looks like it's falling apart...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a oreganizing area of convection near 15 north/75 west...If it was not for that shear to the north it would have a good chance.