18z Gfs on potential new system this week

[Vortex]

Several models continue to indicate potential development this upcoming week near Jamaica. Here's a look at the 18z gfs at H-72

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[Anonymous]

Is the system south of cuba in this map or se of bermuda??

[Coredesat]

South of Cuba. It's the one closest to Jamaica, the 1008mb low.

[jlauderdal]

Several models continue to indicate potential development this upcoming week near Jamaica. Here's a look at the 18z gfs at H-72

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

many of us make fun of gfs outside 72h including me but after arlene we better be careful. climatology suggests another named stormed by the end of june is highly unlikely.

[canegrl04]

Climatalogy may suggest another June storm is unlikely, but this season,I think it is a good possibility. Arlene came 12 days before the average June storm starts

[Josephine96]

Arlene and Bret before July 1..? I think that would be a storm trackers' dream lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would need more runs. In would also need other models to join in before I start hyping this to much.

[SouthernWx]

many of us make fun of gfs outside 72h including me but after arlene we better be careful. climatology suggests another named stormed by the end of june is highly unlikely.

I'd normally agree with you, but in a hurricane season which seems so primed (near record sst's), we may see some things occur that aren't climatological...

FYI...if folks want to see how wild the beginning to hurricane season can be, check out 1886....a year in which three hurricanes developed and struck the Gulf coast during June...all three 85 kt cat-2's.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

PW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Southernwx what is your thinking on this?

[BocaGirl66]

i think this systems may develop but i have to look over this for the next few days


Junior @ West Boca Raton High School!

[Derek Ortt]

should be repeated that an active june does not mean an active season. IN fact, the odds favor a QUIET season if June is active (see the paper by Dr Gray)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There appears to be a area of deep convection. Which looks some what interesting at 12 north/75 west. I know that the heat low over south America will kill its chances.

[SouthernWx]

Southernwx what is your thinking on this?

The same thing I posted on my site this evening....it's "watch and wait" time again. It definitely bears watching....especially in a year with Caribbean Sea & deep tropical Atlantic sst's above average.

PW

[Brent]

many of us make fun of gfs outside 72h including me but after arlene we better be careful. climatology suggests another named stormed by the end of june is highly unlikely.

I'd normally agree with you, but in a hurricane season which seems so primed (near record sst's), we may see some things occur that aren't climatological...

FYI...if folks want to see how wild the beginning to hurricane season can be, check out 1886....a year in which three hurricanes developed and struck the Gulf coast during June...all three 85 kt cat-2's.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

PW

2 and 3 hit the same spot!!!

[Andrew92]

Still, for those who say a "B" storm in June usually might mean, in terms of the odds, a quiet season, go back to 2003....

We had Ana in April, and Bill in late June. That year was crazy enough.

1933 also had a May storm, and then another June storm, and we know what that season produced.

-Andrew92

[Derek Ortt]

1993 produced a very inactive season. A whopping 4 hurricanes and one major for just 12 hours. (The may "storm" was a depression)

The April storm does not count for 2003 as that was well out of season; thus, a statistical anomaly.

some seasons are active with an active early season, but the reviewed paper has documented the megative correlation (about -.3 to -.4)

[Andrew92]

1993 produced a very inactive season. A whopping 4 hurricanes and one major for just 12 hours. (The may "storm" was a depression)

The April storm does not count for 2003 as that was well out of season; thus, a statistical anomaly.

some seasons are active with an active early season, but the reviewed paper has documented the megative correlation (about -.3 to -.4)

I think you mis-read my post. I said 1933, not 1993.

-Andrew92

[cyclonaut]

should be repeated that an active june does not mean an active season. IN fact, the odds favor a QUIET season if June is active (see the paper by Dr Gray)

Maybe so but this seasons forecast is not suppose to be quiet..There have been seasons such 1886,1887,1893.1906,1933 & 1995 that produced early development & that remained consistent through the rest of the season..

So since the forecast is for an active season it looks like the season might be off to the races.

[air360]

hehe...i suppose derek is tired after the past few days eh

[Andrew92]

hehe...i suppose derek is tired after the past few days eh

You're right, I should cut him some slack, especially since 1933 and 1993 look similar.....but the seasons were far from.

Imagine how tired we'd be if we had a 1933-like season! 21 TS's, 10 hurricanes.....I think I'd be exhausted just looking at satellite images casually!

-Andrew92