Question For Derek Ortt

[recmod]

Derek....
I would just like your input now that we have 20/20 hindsight regarding Arlene.

You posted the following on June 7:

if there will be development, its far more likely to the NE of the islands, not the GOM. The GOM solution does not make meteorological sense at all

Looks like the Gulf Of Mexico solution made some sense after-all.....


--Lou

[dhweather]

Arlene certainly overcame a lot of adversity to do as well as she did.
Shear and dry air dominated the storm from its inception.

[MGC]

Oh, quit picking on Dereck. For being a young whipper snapper he does a good job. Give him about 10 years of true experience and he will be top notch. Everyone makes mistakes when trying to forecast tropical weather. No one is perfect even the college educated pros who make a living at this. Shoot, I missed landfall by a good 20 miles with Arlene, I forecast Navarre Beach. As usual, I had a difficult time with intensity as I always seem to under forecast intensity......MGC

[SouthernWx]

The western Caribbean made perfect climatological sense; is by far the most likely area of the Atlantic Basin for tropical cyclone formation during the month of June.

PW

[Derek Ortt]

this was by far one of the worst systems I have EVER handled. Even so, we were able to starting with yesterday to indicate the possibility of this becoming a hurricane, despite our high resolution model having problems, due to something incredibly stupid (changing the number of sigma levels)

the system that has been near the islands may well develop in the next few days, so that forecast may not be entirely incorrect

[recmod]

I am not "picking on Derek"....to the contrary, as I have said in the past, I greatly respect Derek and follow his forecasts closely. Last year, his accuracy in predicting the storms was far above "average". I just wanted his comments on such a definitive statement regarding what he felt was an unlikely event...which ended up occuring.

--Lou

[Anonymous]

Not to seem as if I am bragging, but this system did not surprise me, as I mentioned in my tropical updates and posts well before it was even an invest.

[Radar]

I think Arlene had alot of people scratching their heads... whether amateur or professional. It is not every year that an Arlene comes rolling along. I remember alot of speculation on the board in the beginning of the week on if Arlene would form at all. She is definately not a text book storm and one we all can learn alot from!

[StormChasr]

Early season storms like this one are hard to call. They don't follow the rules all that well.

[sunflowerkist]

The first storm of the year is like having the first baby. Ya don't know how long its gonna take and ya don't know what you are going to get or how big. The first computer models of the season seem to be the ones that set the parameters for error for the rest of the season. Kind of like getting the kinks out or something.
The problem with mathematic calculations though is the Storm did not study formal math. It just follows the next logical thing to do.

[gatorcane]

if there will be development, its far more likely to the NE of the islands, not the GOM. The GOM solution does not make meteorological sense at all

This is taken out of context so I'm not exactly sure what he means...but I will say the GOM solution is highly likely in June in general so unless he was factoring in other influences into his solution I would have to disagree with Derek.

[Derek Ortt]

It means that I blew the genesis forecast, which I do deserve to be called out on. I did not factor in the subtropical development that initially occurred. Once the storm formed, it was obvious as to where this was going to head, and all forecasts correctly indicated a first landfall in western Cuba and a final landfall in either the FL Panhandle or eastern Alabama

[dhweather]

It means that I blew the genesis forecast, which I do deserve to be called out on. I did not factor in the subtropical development that initially occurred. Once the storm formed, it was obvious as to where this was going to head, and all forecasts correctly indicated a first landfall in western Cuba and a final landfall in either the FL Panhandle or eastern Alabama

I wouldn't say you deserve to be called out on it. Conditions were not
exactly favorable for development.

Given the two choices, the eastern carribean looked marginally more favorable.