NW Caribbean Prediction Thread...

[vaffie]

Hi everyone,
I'm going to be rather random, and say LA/TX border to Lake Charles. I say it not because I live in Houston, which I do, and not because I want to be different from everyone else, just because my experience has been that the GFS model that the NHC and some of the other models put a lot of credit in is almost always biased a few hundred miles to the East of where it actually ends up three to four days out, especially when a building ridge is involved. But even I might be too conservative, and it might end up in SE Texas too.
Good luck!
-Vaffie

[dwg71]

FT Walton Beach CAT 1. Saturday AM 9:15 EST.

[Wpwxguy]

I may be wrong, but I saw a couple models building the ridge/high in farther west toward the weekend. If that is the case then a farther west landfall would be anticipated.IMO...... I'm going with the NHC , only shifting slightly to the west. Between the Pearl River(LA State line) and Biloxi, MS. Air Force Met, please correct me if I'm wrong.

[dwg71]

Hi everyone,
I'm going to be rather random, and say LA/TX border to Lake Charles. I say it not because I live in Houston, which I do, and not because I want to be different from everyone else, just because my experience has been that the GFS model that the NHC and some of the other models put a lot of credit in is almost always biased a few hundred miles to the East of where it actually ends up three to four days out, especially when a building ridge is involved. But even I might be too conservative, and it might end up in SE Texas too.
Good luck!
-Vaffie

A couple of Hundred miles from east of predicted landfall is still a couple hundred miles from SE texas. With all models in aggreance, I dont see a 500 mile error 3 days out.

[Steve]

vaffie,

Good call on the NHC/GFS reliance. But I think that scenario holds more water when a storm is moving through the Atlantic and the GFS just wants to get it out of there into the westerly flow. We see that year after year, storm after storm. None the less, I hope you're right because that would mean I'd get a windy, wet, beer drinking Saturday instead of a honey-do list

Steve

[Brent]

I hope you're right because that would mean I'd get a windy, wet, beer drinking Saturday instead of a honey-do list

[vaffie]

Thanks Steve and dwg71 for your encouragement and insight.

[Fla Panhandle]

I say landfall betwenn Mobile and Pensacola as a strong tropical storm.

[SouthernWx]

IMO landfall Saturday afternoon/ evening as a minimal hurricane.....between Orange Beach, AL and Bay St Louis, MS.

PW

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it will be lucky to make it to 5am as a tropical depression. This is really lossing the battle the convection is way away from any ciruatlion.

[HURAKAN]

I think it will be lucky to make it to 5am as a tropical depression. This is really lossing the battle the convection is way away from any ciruatlion.

It's a tropical depression in its formative stage, thereafter, everything that is happening, losing convection, looking ragged, poor-defined center, is very, ultra-extremely normal. Please, don't start saying things like it will not make it to TD by morning, by the way, no one was expecting this system to be a TD by now.

[george_r_1961]

This being a weak system its going to be subject to some diurnal variations in intensity and appearance since the atmosphere over the water is more unstable at nite. This seems to be the case as of 2am EDT.Dont be too surprised if it appears more disorganized tommorow and then tommorow night strenghthens significantly owing to warm SST's , low shear, and a ridge building over the cyclone. its still got a few more hours of darkness to get its act together this morning too. In any case I wouldnt be shocked to see a strong TS or a Cat 1 by Friday morning IF the environemt is favorable as forecast. The only inhibiting factor I see at this time is possible dry air entrainment. Id like to see a well defined center before I decide whether or not this will affect the cyclone. As was mentioned earlier there is a lot of dry air over the western GOM; consequently the center forming further west would result in a weaker cyclone. A more easterly track toward the AL/FL coast could result in a Cat 1.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cyclonaut]

Well Pensacola was where Arlene made landfall..I am happy with my prediction which was between Pensacola & Apalachicola..I need a coke with all these colas on my mind. Neglected to post strength here but I did say on other threads that I thought it would stay a TS..Never jumped on the hurricane bandwagon as a poll suggested..Congrats to many of you folks out there!!Some of you really nailed it & some were close enough..Sorry to say though a few of you were off on everything but the name.

[Swimdude]

It's interesting how accurate his predictions were. And what's this about Texas? I'm in Houston, and we haven't had a nice, powerful hurricane since Alicia. [Which, amusingly enough, I wasn't alive for.] I suppose i'm wishing a hurricane on Houston. As I've been doing since 1997.

Why are we so climatogically [is that a word?] unfavorable for these storms to come on shore here? It's irritating. For those of you thinking, "Why would one WANT a hurricane?"

I'm yet to experience one. That's why.

[Stratusxpeye]

Id have to say mobile to pensacola sun-mon rough estimate. Strenght Strong TS Or CAT1 Just a guess

only thing i was off on was the day. she really picked up speed there in the past few days but overall alot of us were close

[cyclonaut]

Id have to say mobile to pensacola sun-mon rough estimate. Strenght Strong TS Or CAT1 Just a guess

only thing i was off on was the day. she really picked up speed there in the past few days but overall alot of us were close

Yeah good job!

& you could have wishcasted being that youre in Tampa,you could've leaned more your way..Its human nature..But you didnt & thats comendable..You gave a well thought,non-bias opinion & when the next threat comes around it'll be worth knowing what you & a few others think.

[Normandy]

It's interesting how accurate his predictions were. And what's this about Texas? I'm in Houston, and we haven't had a nice, powerful hurricane since Alicia. [Which, amusingly enough, I wasn't alive for.] I suppose i'm wishing a hurricane on Houston. As I've been doing since 1997.

Why are we so climatogically [is that a word?] unfavorable for these storms to come on shore here? It's irritating. For those of you thinking, "Why would one WANT a hurricane?"

Its all fun and games until a Cat3 or higher comes in an wipes out many homes.

[Anonymous]

It's interesting how accurate his predictions were. And what's this about Texas? I'm in Houston, and we haven't had a nice, powerful hurricane since Alicia. [Which, amusingly enough, I wasn't alive for.] I suppose i'm wishing a hurricane on Houston. As I've been doing since 1997.

Why are we so climatogically [is that a word?] unfavorable for these storms to come on shore here? It's irritating. For those of you thinking, "Why would one WANT a hurricane?"

Its all fun and games until a Cat3 or higher comes in an wipes out many homes.

Well to those in hurricane prone areas not having insurance to cover the loss, shame on them!

[Normandy]

Well to those in hurricane prone areas not having insurance to cover the loss, shame on them!

Did you ever consider some can't afford the insurance? Is it still a shame on them. My point is that its foolish (IMO) to wish a hurricane on your own city....those things aren't spring thunderstorms.

If one wishes to experience a hurricane, then go chase one.