Bret in the making?

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corpusbreeze
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Bret in the making?

#1 Postby corpusbreeze » Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:43 am

I know Arlene is the big news today, but all the models are hinting at development in the Caribbean. The NHC is also taking note. Could be another storm for the North Central GOM.
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skysummit
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#2 Postby skysummit » Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:45 am

From what I read on here so far, the conditions are not favorable for development. Maybe the disturbance will hang around for a while?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#3 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:47 am

Avn develops it in takes it out into the Atlantic.
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#4 Postby corpusbreeze » Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:48 am

skysummit wrote:From what I read on here so far, the conditions are not favorable for development. Maybe the disturbance will hang around for a while?
I don't think development any time soon either. It could take 3-4 days.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:50 am

The Gfs/Avn starts to develop it south of Jamica then takes it across central Cuba. Then out into the Atlantic. Starting at around 56 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 11, 2005 10:53 am

Track
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 06/74.html
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#7 Postby TampaFl » Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:08 am

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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#8 Postby cajungal » Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:30 am

I did not hear northern Gulf Coast. If Bret forms, it will be a threat for the eastern seaboard. Gosh, it is barely the second week of June. We may be talking about a new system every week at this rate. :eek: :eek: :eek:
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cyclonaut

#9 Postby cyclonaut » Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:37 am

Yes I havent seen anywhere that there will be threat from a storm on the northern Gulf coast after Arlene.
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#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jun 11, 2005 11:54 am

interesting
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#11 Postby Brett Adair » Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:13 pm

Well....I can insure you this, "Bret" is going to be a B***H. I know him all too well. ;)
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#12 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:30 pm

Do you suppose we'll run the alphabet this season? :eek:
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#13 Postby Brent » Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:41 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Do you suppose we'll run the alphabet this season? :eek:


It's always possible, but I doubt it.
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Brett Adair
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#14 Postby Brett Adair » Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:42 pm

Brent wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:Do you suppose we'll run the alphabet this season? :eek:


It's always possible, but I doubt it.


Agreed....after last year, I seriously doubt it.
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#15 Postby Radar » Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:49 pm

I'm definately not ready for Bret, I need to get some beauty sleep! I dont think we will run the whole alphabet this season but I wouldnt be surprised if we got to "R"....
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bevgo
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Huh??

#16 Postby bevgo » Sat Jun 11, 2005 2:16 pm

Its only June! I am shocked we had a storm like Arlene this soon but now we are already talking about Bret. It is going to be a long season--LOL
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cyclonaut

#17 Postby cyclonaut » Sat Jun 11, 2005 2:19 pm

I still havent seen where "Bret" is going to affect the Gulf Coast any time soon.
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#18 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jun 11, 2005 2:54 pm

How is this forecasted low - if it even forms - going to move out to sea? Look at the 72 Hour surface projection. A strong ridge is holding off the Southeastern U.S. If anything look for a more westerly movement.

Image
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 11, 2005 3:08 pm

That's true boca_chris, but if you see the GFS model it says that the high pressure will weaken after the 72 hours, maybe allowing the low pressure system to go through. I want to emphasize that we should continue watching the trend to see if it verifies run after run, and to see of computer models come into agreement. I think is pretty early and unsafe to jump start crying for Bret, he will come, but just wait. The hurricane season is nothing more than a waiting game, we are always waiting for something.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation[/img]
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#20 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 11, 2005 4:43 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/83.html
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