2pm Arlene-60 mph winds... not going to be a hurricane

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Arlene Intermediate Advisory Number 13a

Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on June 11, 2005

...Reconnaissance aircraft finds Arlene a little weaker...chances of
becoming a hurricane diminishing...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the north
central Gulf Coast from Pascagoula Mississippi eastward to Destin
Florida.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect
from the mouth of the Pearl River eastward to west of Pascagoula
Mississippi.
At 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...the Hurricane Watch from east of Destin to
Indian Pass Florida has been discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northern Gulf
Coast from Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl
River...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain...
and also from east of Destin Florida eastward to Ochlocknee river
Florida.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the
southeastern United States should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
located near latitude 30.0 north...longitude 87.5 west or about
20 miles south-southeast of Gulf Shores Alabama.

Arlene has been moving toward the north near 14 mph. On this
track...the broad circulation center of Arlene should cross the
coast near the Alabama/Florida border in the next couple of hours.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Arlene has weakened
slightly but remains a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained
winds near 60 mph...with higher gusts. The potential for Arlene to
become a hurricane before landfall has decreased.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles mainly to
the north and east of the center.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 991 mb...29.26 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Water levels are currently about one to two feet above normal tide
levels along the northern Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches can be expected with Arlene
from the eastern and central Gulf Coast northward through the
Tennessee Valley and into the lower to middle Ohio Valley over the
next two days. Isolated maximum rainfall totals of 8 inches are
possible in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southern
Alabama...southwestern Georgia...the Florida Panhandle...and
northwestern Florida today.

Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...30.0 N... 87.5 W. Movement
toward...north near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 991 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb

[HURAKAN]

The fight was not enough for the system to reach hurricane status.

[george_r_1961]

This has gotta be the sickest looking strong TS I have ever seen. While it looked good for a time yesterday it more resembles a TD this afternoon. I hope this state of disorganization allows it to weaken quickly upon landfall mimimizing the flood threat inland.

[Brett Adair]

I have seen summertime thunderstorms in Alabama that are worse than this!

[HurryKane]

I have seen summertime thunderstorms in Alabama that are worse than this!

No kidding. My bud is all sad his first ever chance to hold a hurricane party is turning into a regular old dinner thing. I told him he'd probably have another chance before the season was over.