10am Arlene-70 mph winds, 990 mb, NNW at 14 29.6 N 87.4 W

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 13

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on June 11, 2005

...Winds and rains increasing along the northern Gulf Coast as the
center of Arlene approaches...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the north
central Gulf Coast from Pascagoula Mississippi eastward to Destin
Florida.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect
from the mouth of the Pearl River eastward to west of Pascagoula
Mississippi...and also from east of Destin Florida eastward to
Indian Pass Florida.

At 10 am CDT...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning from east of
Ochlocknee river to Steinhatchee river has been discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northern Gulf
Coast from Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl
River...including the city of New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain...and also from Indian Pass Florida eastward to
Ochlocknee river Florida.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the
southeastern United States should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Arlene was
estimated near latitude 29.6 north...longitude 87.4 west or about
110 miles east-northeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River
and about 85 miles south-southeast of Mobile Alabama.

Arlene is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph. On this
track...the center of Arlene should cross the coast within the
warning area later today.

Arlene remains just below hurricane strength with maximum sustained
winds near 70 mph with higher gusts. There is still a slight chance
for Arlene to become a hurricane before landfall.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles mainly to
the north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb...29.23 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Water levels are currently about one to two feet above normal tide
levels along the northern Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches can be expected with Arlene
from the eastern and central Gulf Coast northward through the
Tennessee Valley and into the lower to middle Ohio Valley over the
next two days. Isolated maximum rainfall totals of 8 inches are
possible in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southern
Alabama...southwestern Georgia...the Florida Panhandle...and
northwestern Florida today.

Repeating the 10 am CDT position...29.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 990 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM
CDT.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb

[Brent]

Looks like a landfall right where Ivan hit... Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area.

[HurricaneGirl]

Thanks for posting the coordinates Brent.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 13

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 11, 2005

Arlene has not strengthened since last night. The storm continues
with a well-defined and large circulation...but deep convection is
limited to some bands to the north and west of the center. Minimum
pressure has been oscillating around 990 mb according to fixes from
hurricane hunter planes. Maximum winds have remained at 60 knots.
However...this estimate may be a little generous. Due to the
current structure on satellite...it appears that the chances of
Arlene becoming a hurricane before landfall are decreasing.
However...the cyclone will be over water for a few more hours and
the development of another burst of convection...like the one that
occurred yesterday...could bring the winds up to hurricane status.
Given such uncertainty...the best option is to keep the Hurricane
Warning at this time.

Arlene has slowed down a little and is now moving toward the
north-northwest at about 12 knots. No significant change in the
steering currrents is anticipated...and the center of Arlene should
cross the coast within the warning area later today. After landfall
Arlene should weaken but continue spreading heavy rains through the
Tennessee Valley and into the lower to middle Ohio Valley over the
next two days. Tropical cyclones are not just a coastal event and
heavy rains could occur well inland and long after the center
crosses the coast.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/1500z 29.6n 87.4w 60 kt
12hr VT 12/0000z 31.5n 88.0w 40 kt...inland
24hr VT 12/1200z 34.0n 88.0w 25 kt...dissipating
36hr VT 13/0000z 37.5n 87.5w 20 kt...remnant low

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 13


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 11, 2005



Arlene has not strengthened since last night. The storm continues
with a well-defined and large circulation...but deep convection is
limited to some bands to the north and west of the center. Minimum
pressure has been oscillating around 990 mb according to fixes from
hurricane hunter planes. Maximum winds have remained at 60 knots.
However...this estimate may be a little generous. Due to the
current structure on satellite...it appears that the chances of
Arlene becoming a hurricane before landfall are decreasing.
However...the cyclone will be over water for a few more hours and
the development of another burst of convection...like the one that
occurred yesterday...could bring the winds up to hurricane status.
Given such uncertainty...the best option is to keep the Hurricane
Warning at this time.
Arlene has slowed down a little and is now moving toward the
north-northwest at about 12 knots. No significant change in the
steering currrents is anticipated...and the center of Arlene should
cross the coast within the warning area later today. After landfall
Arlene should weaken but continue spreading heavy rains through the
Tennessee Valley and into the lower to middle Ohio Valley over the
next two days. Tropical cyclones are not just a coastal event and
heavy rains could occur well inland and long after the center
crosses the coast.
Forecaster Avila/Knabb

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 11/1500z 29.6n 87.4w 60 kt
12hr VT 12/0000z 31.5n 88.0w 40 kt...inland
24hr VT 12/1200z 34.0n 88.0w 25 kt...dissipating
36hr VT 13/0000z 37.5n 87.5w 20 kt...remnant low

Hurricane Status is less likely by the second.