Arelene W

Javlin · #1 Postby **Javlin** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:35 am

The POS seems to be moving almost Due W
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mob_N0Z_lp.htm

Iam thinking 29.1N 87.3W now

#2 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:45 am

Watching the Mobile radar with GRLEVEL3, it's movig at about 285 degrees - just north of due west.

This may very well be a Mississippi landfall. :?:

Javlin · #3 Postby **Javlin** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:57 am

Tks Dh sometimes my eyes do not always see everything.I told one of my workers last night the same thing.Once I started seeing thos clicks left I knew she found the ridge.I was figuring then about 88.5W for landfall.I think it might be just a little further W maybe.If you use the map in static mode you put your mouse over the the supposed center tells degree direction and distance.Then if you click on tour location give angle and milea to center once you put your mouse there.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/

FWBHurricane · #4 Postby **FWBHurricane** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:59 am

According to the NHC...she has been wobbling North for the past few hours.

#5 Postby **Steve** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:00 am

There's an outflow boundary or a weak trof or generally eastern push at the LA/TX border (see WV). Eventually she's going to have to shunt off more northerly. Hopefully that will be later rather than sooner so we get a crack at a rotating band.

Steve

#6 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:00 am

Casper - no problem. We all see things at times, it's part of staring into
images all the time, part of the legal addiction of Storm2k.

#7 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:01 am

Steve wrote:There's an outflow boundary or a weak trof or generally eastern push at the LA/TX border (see WV). Eventually she's going to have to shunt off more northerly. Hopefully that will be later rather than sooner so we get a crack at a rotating band.

Steve

Yeah, I'd like one too. Rain is always welcomed here!!

#8 Postby **feederband** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:02 am

Man I went to sleep and the whole world changes . What Arlean doing over their. :roll:

Javlin · #9 Postby **Javlin** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:04 am

See what you mean Steve moving faster E than Arlene is W.Probably why she looks to be slowing down and I thought you might get Henderson point might still never know.

#10 Postby **Steve** » Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:43 am

Yeah, I liked that call from Wednesday. I know I'm not jack, but I thought Henderson Pt. to Mobile Bay @ 65mph seemed reasonable. I was 2 days early on the timing though, so that isn't too good. One of the lessons of Arlene has been that sometimes if a storm is going to get to a certain point, it doesn't really matter how it gets there. It might wobble. It could travel in a straight line. Or it might have to reform from time to time.

I was looking at some of the 00z and 06z models to see who was doing what. From 00z, Navy Nogaps (calling for an Alabama landfall) and the ETA look like they had the best grasp on Alrene. Here's the ETA (00z runs had it south of MS at 12z) if you don't have a link to it.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/i ... ?model=eta

GFDL 06 might be pretty close too.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Arelene W

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